So, you want to run as a third party or independent?

Best of Luck!

For whatever reason, one of the most read blog posts on this website is an explanation of why third parties don’t win. 

Long story short – the deck is completely stacked against them.

But like any good critical thinker, we may want to reframe the question and ask: “Under what conditions DO third party or independent candidates win?”

Because we all know, while rare, third party or independent candidates do win.

• • • They tend to come with established high, hard name-id. Normally originating outside politics.   Say maybe pro-wrestling, business, and / or athletics.
    • They tend to be wealthy. As discussed, ideological donors are typically highly partisan.  Institutional donors are odds players.  Typically, independent or third party candidates need sustainable seed money to get the campaign off the ground.
    • They tend to be lucky…I mean …. They tend to be at the right place at the right time. If you look closely, independents win when one of the major party candidates is fatally flawed – either entering the campaign or during the campaign.
    • They tend to be running for lower offices. Currently, there are major party apparatuses established for Senate, House, Governors, Attorneys General level campaigns.

Conclusion

We try not to think in binary terms (win / lose) – because as soon as you say “So-and-so can’t win!”, you end up embarrassed.  Rather, we try and think in probabilistic terms.

After all, any given hand can win at any time, but skill and politics wins in the long run – unless you are really unlucky.

Even if the above conditions 1-4 are met, it remains highly unlikely a third party or independent candidate wins – especially in these highly polarized political times.  There is nothing binding the Independent “tribe” together other than rejection of both parties and all the other candidates.

As a company, we embrace “Structured Analysis” techniques in an attempt to minimize biases and ensure we are rigorous in our examination of a question or problem.

This often means before beginning an analysis, we may spend some time reframing a question – especially on that assumes a binary Yes or No conclusion.  “Will the Republican Party split?” can be reframed “Under what conditions do political parties split?”

Another technique is to get out of a binary “yes / no” and ask “What is the probability the Republican Party splits?”

An additional technique we may use is Scenario Analysis.  It is an attempt to generate competing hypotheses that can then be evaluated.  It is also a method that can identify multiple ways in which a situation could evolve and consider the factors.  It is fairly simple technique; we project into the future and brainstorm alternative possible outcomes.  As with brainstorming, some scenarios can be a little out there.  That is okay, it is just important you discuss them.  In the end, you can then assign a likelihood to each scenario.

So in the case, we project two years or three into the future and brainstorm potential scenarios for the Republican party.

In a world after 2022 midterms…..

HIGHLY LIKELY

Nothing Really Changes, and the GOP ‘Civil’ War Is Raging.

• 2022 midterms are a mixed bag – nothing much changes in power setting in Congress, both wings have victories and defeats.   Maybe control of House and/or Senate flip.
• The Trump wing and the establishment wing of the party have and will continue to challenge not only Democrats but also the differing Republicans from the other wings. Open seats, especially in red districts, become free-for-alls.
• One side wins a majority of seats in GOP caucus, but not large enough to move an agenda on their own.
• Right Wing media fractures – Some conservative media suffering from lawsuits, advertisers fleeing and/or stock holder lawsuits or stockholder pressure realigns and revamps their entire lineup – appeals to ‘establishment’.    Other Right-wing media continues to support Trump wing, offering a platform to promote fringe theories.
• Q2.0 evolves and flourishes.
• Corporations who pledged to stop donations to Members of Congress who voted to nullify 2020 election, hold the line.  Fund and promote establishment Republicans.
• Small-dollar donations continue to fund the non-establishment wing.

Nothing Really Changes, and the GOP Reaches Uneasy Détente.

• 2022 midterms are a mixed bad – nothing much changes in power setting in Congress, both wings have victories and defeats.   Maybe control of House and/or Senate flip.
• The Trump wing and the establishment wing of the party no longer actively challenge incumbents but spend money in open seats to win the hearts and minds of their wings’ loyalists.
• The factions form a coalition type party government that settles into a détente.  No side “wins”, but arrives at a truce, power sharing type agreement, and outcomes are irregular.
• Corporations who pledged to stop donations to MOC who voted to 2020 nullify elections find loopholes to drain their moral outrage and give instead PACS, to leadership PACS or through trade groups who in turn donate and/or support those members.
• Right Wing media morphs –  coverage changes with a base of anti-Democrat messaging with specific shows supporting each faction.  Corporate media with stockholders offers a range of opinions.  Internet media continues to be a free-for-all.
• Other Internet, based conservative media continues to support Trump wing and offer fringe theories and reinforces the trump wing.
• Q2.0 evolves and flourishes.

LIKELY

Trump Wins – Establishment Wing Dies

• 2022 midterms became a referendum on Donald Trump (again) and they win.  Ivanka wins a Senate seat beating Sen. Rubio in a primary.  Maybe Laura Trump wins in North Carolina.  Donald Trump extracts revenge and wins primaries against members deemed not loyal enough.  Donald Jr is installed GOP national chair.
• Party realigns with populists, American-worker message but continues with divisive, off-putting ‘appeal’  in the process – losing educated, women, young, and majorities of minority voters.   Adds to ranks white voters.
• Trump regains social media platform access.
• Trump announces run for 2024.
• ‘Establishment’ Republicans flee the party as registering as NPA or even DEMS.  They are small in number.   Most just realign with Trump.
• Party shrinks to a national party in name only, continues to win deep red states/districts.   However, controls enough state houses for 2020 redistricting to maintain regional / statewide power.  Over time, in large jurisdictions – likely to lose states like Texas, Georgia, and Florida.
• Popular vote isn’t with reach, electoral college is trending away.
• Conservative media does not fracture – Right Wing Media wins/settles lawsuits, advertisers fleeing are replaced with new advertisers, no stockholder pressure.  Media realigns and revamps their entire lineup – appeals and supports Trump wing, Q2.0 flourishes and right-wing media ecosystem is flush with cash.

Establishment Wins – Trump Wing Is Co-Opted And Quietly Fades

• 2022 midterms became a referendum on Donald Trump (again) – Democrats pick up seats or retain power in House.  Democrats pick up seats in Senate, widen margin.
• V1 – Party & Voters realigns with a populists, American-worker message, and appeal.  Files down rough edges – Gains in middle / lower class voters regardless of race (actually improves dramatically with Hispanic, Asian, and make small inroads into black voters  – Party competes / wins national elections.
• V2 – Party and Voters realigns with establishment.  Returns to traditional messaging, files down rough edges.
• Trump remains on social media sidelines.
• Corporations who pledged to stop donations to MOC who voted to 2020 nullify elections hold the line and cut off money or move resources to gasp….”supporting business minded Democrats.”

Establishment Wins – Trump Wing Implodes / Dies

• 2022 midterms became a referendum on Donald Trump (again) and his family is sidelined due to legal issues.  Democrats pick up seats and/or retain power in House.  Democrats pick up seats in Senate, widen margin.
• The Trump family is crushed or completely distracted by legal issues.  Trump wing is beset by family in fighting for control – will it be Jr or Ivanka?  Or Cotton Or Hawley? Corporations stick by their pledges not to donate to Representatives or Senators that participated in the attempted nullifying of the 2020 election.  Instead, they spend their resources in attacking Trump wing.   Right Wing media does not fracture – Right Wing Media suffering from lawsuits, advertisers fleeing and/or stock holder lawsuits or stockholder pressure realigns and revamps their entire lineup – appeals to establishment, attacks fringe theories.   Media companies are regulated more and fear being held liable for content.  Fringe content is pushed into the deep shadows.
• Trump remains on social media sidelines.
• Trump does not have the discipline to keep up a sustained effort needed to emerge through all the issues he faces.
• Democratic DOJ infiltrates, prosecutes, and jails white supremacist groups and organizations.  Direct ties to Trump wing are proven.
• Establishment Republicans benefit through no actions of their own.

Establishment Wins – Trump Wing Dies

• This one could be literally Donald Trump dies and without the specific personality, the Trump wing fades away in his absence.

UNLIKELY

Two scenarios in this are the actual, formal split of the party.  While not impossible, political pros understand that an actual 3rd party means they are highly unlikely to win an election outside a regional area.  We are a first past the post, winner-take-all political system.  Without changes to that system, a 3rd party stands virtually no chance of winning.  Rather, it would likely play the role of spoiler.

Establishment Wins – Trump Wing Starts “Patriot Party”

• Supported by Internet Media.
• Small dollar donations support.
• With Trumps popularity, a significant number of grass-root volunteers, true believers, and potential candidates would migrate.
• Highly unlikely to win in many competitive places; likely to splay spoiler.
• Likely to win some deep red seats

Trump Wins – ‘Establishment’ Wing Starts New Party

• DC, elected officials will not formally switch registration – there is simply too much infrastructure and too much vested in status quo.  Potentially could caucus.
• Highly unlikely to win in many places; more likely to splay spoiler.

HIGHLY UNLIKELY

Actual Civil War Breaks-Out – violence continues, some states begin to succeed.

CONCLUSION

Frankly, I am not all that happy with this analysis, and I will continue to work on it.  It feels like it lacks imagination, but that may be a function of the most likely scenario is messy and doesn’t neatly fit into a box.  I’ll continue to work on brainstorming outcomes, but in the meantime – strap your helmet on; it’s going to be ugly. What are potential scenarios that I have left out? Factors?

I recently sent an email to our email list with a simple request – “please tell me what you are struggling with politically.”  Some responded with specific issues, but most in some way mentioned struggling with the current political client – how divisive, how nasty, how divided we have become.

And then most asked, “What can we do about it?”

Analysis of the Current Political Atmosphere

It’s bad.  Really bad.

We do need some definitions:

Partisanship is a person’s self-identification with a political party.

Polarization is the divergence (the gap) between ideological extremes.

While I do not want to wade into a grad school dissertation of “Abramowitz vs Fiorina: Who won?”, we will acknowledge the research and measurement of these two concepts are a constantly moving target.  In addition, there is also merit to going beyond the trite red-blue debate (partisanship is more diverse than two poles).

However, I think we all feel the nation is deeply divided, and it is worse among the political “elite”.  So for now, we will focus on political polarization.

Pew Research

The Pew Research Center has been researching polarization extensively, and over time we can see themes emerge:

• Polarization is increasing – sharply since 2012.
• Polarization is more acute among the elites (politically engaged people).
• The political elite moved first, then the general public followed.
• It really exploded in 2012.

Yes, our country has gone through periods of polarization, but this somehow seems different.

Negative Partisanship

Researchers are finding a lot of this is driven by “affective” or “negative partisanship”.  Said plainly, we may not necessarily like our own party, our party’s issue positions, but we really, really hate the other party.

It is a disdain, a loathing, a complete distrust, and it feels like a precursor to collapse.   And, frankly, these things may be.

We dislike people that look different than us.

Dislike people that earn more than us.

Dislike the thought of our child marrying someone from another party.[1]

We seek out information that reinforces our feelings and attitudes.

Many of us don’t have a single friend who supports the opposing party / candidate.

Many of us don’t have friends from a different race.  [2]

The craziest thing is most of this is not driven by disagreements in policy – bear with me here because I know I am painting with a wide brush.  Most of America is conflicted (ambiguous) and holds loose policy positions on many issues.  Often, people look to party ques and leadership and adopt their issues stances.  The most recent example is how Republicans changed attitudes towards Russia during the Trump era.  [3]

This is driven by affect.  It is driven by emotion.  Specifically, it is driven by how we feel about others, and it affects “all sides.”

This polarization is connected to sorting (meaning we choose to live near people that think and look like us).  In looking at 2020 results, 57% of Floridians live in precincts (the smallest unit of analysis for returns available) where one of the major candidates (Trump or Biden) won in excess of 60% of the vote.  Nearly 40% of Floridians live in precincts where one of the major candidates won in excess of 65% of the vote.

This polarization is fed by a click-media that is more than willing to feed our worst appetites.  Why?  because polarization rewards extreme positions and is making a lot of people rich.  [4][5]  Politicians are more than willing to take polarized positions because we continue to reward them with votes.

And here is where it becomes terrifying.  We are starting to describe “others” in non-human terms.  They are “evil”, “animals”, “bitches”, or “dogs”, and in studying this type of language, we see repeated examples of what may come after its use.[6]

But here is what is truly terrifying:  everything is now partisan and polarizing – driven by what we dislike.    

For example, religion.  How can religion be polarized?  There is research that being a Christian is associated with the Republican party, and that may be driving some on the left’s aversion to religion.  “I may not be sure about God, but I am sure I don’t like Republicans – THEREFORE, I am the opposite.”

Basic ‘right’ & ‘wrong’ are now somehow partisan.  Storming the Capitol and killing five people at one point in our history wouldn’t be a difficult thing to condemn.

Polarization is now entangled with self-worth, and it has become self-reinforcing.    It’s a feedback loop we can’t seem to get out of, and some of us are violent about it.

So, it’s bad, but the second part of the emails were people truly seeking answers.

What do we do about polarization?

I think I am going to disappoint you – sorry.  I don’t have great answers for you.

It feels like America is in the middle of an awful and bitter divorce.  We are yelling and screaming about control over money (government spending) and which parent gets to dictate the rules (courts).  We are so bitter, angry and some of us no longer really know why.

But here are my recommendations:

Focus on yourself, noting each of us has a part.  We may not be able to control DC, but we can control our own thoughts and behaviors.

• Stop using dehumanizing language.   I think therefore I am.
• Find a person from the other party and have a beer with – or four.  (If you don’t drink, have a cup of coffee).   At this meeting, don’t try and change someone’s mind about politics, seek to understand.  Ask lots of “How” questions.
• Stop giving money to extreme politicians.
• Call your elected officials (Congress, State Legislatures, local) and tell them you are concerned with the level of polarization.  Ask “How do you think we can lower polarization?”
• Stop your trolling on social media.  You don’t need to ‘own the libs’ or share a story of someone getting ‘destroyed’ on cable news.
• Broaden your news sources.  I personally use feedly (https://feedly.com/) to subscribe to news sources from across the spectrum.  I include over-seas views.
• Don’t accept violence.  Be vocal about your opposition to it.  Demand your local elected officials are outspoken about it.  None of this wink and nod stuff – please say it is wrong period and leave off the “both sides” nonsense.   It is leadership.

Yes, I know these recommendations are a bit flimsy and ‘West Wing-ish’, because the dark truth is “it’s bad, really bad”, and I don’t have a ton of hope.

But I know this started with “leaders” / elite and someone will have to lead – a scary idea.

In the end, I don’t know how to make mommy and daddy stop fighting, but I know I can try to regulate my behavior.

[1] https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/82/2/379/4996003?login=true
[2] https://www.americansurveycenter.org/american-storylines-project/
[3] https://news.gallup.com/poll/237137/republicans-positive-relations-russia.aspx
[4] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fake-news-how-partying-macedonian-teen-earns-thousands-publishing-lies-n692451
[5] https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-knows-it-encourages-division-top-executives-nixed-solutions-11590507499
[6] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691620953767?casa_token=9zUoPRmHdyEAAAAA%3A65icz5JnkUAoWHk-Sz6IU97Dy3ffpjikYt8ArN080zdkJw3UxbGFH8IJmSdtrMAmRvqnPBTgcmI97A