So, you want to run as a third party or independent?
Best of Luck!
For whatever reason, one of the most read blog posts on this website is an explanation of why third parties don’t win.
Long story short – the deck is completely stacked against them.
But like any good critical thinker, we may want to reframe the question and ask: “Under what conditions DO third party or independent candidates win?”
Because we all know, while rare, third party or independent candidates do win.
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- They tend to come with established high, hard name-id. Normally originating outside politics. Say maybe pro-wrestling, business, and / or athletics.
- They tend to be wealthy. As discussed, ideological donors are typically highly partisan. Institutional donors are odds players. Typically, independent or third party candidates need sustainable seed money to get the campaign off the ground.
- They tend to be lucky…I mean …. They tend to be at the right place at the right time. If you look closely, independents win when one of the major party candidates is fatally flawed – either entering the campaign or during the campaign.
- They tend to be running for lower offices. Currently, there are major party apparatuses established for Senate, House, Governors, Attorneys General level campaigns.
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Conclusion
We try not to think in binary terms (win / lose) – because as soon as you say “So-and-so can’t win!”, you end up embarrassed. Rather, we try and think in probabilistic terms.
After all, any given hand can win at any time, but skill and politics wins in the long run – unless you are really unlucky.
Even if the above conditions 1-4 are met, it remains highly unlikely a third party or independent candidate wins – especially in these highly polarized political times. There is nothing binding the Independent “tribe” together other than rejection of both parties and all the other candidates.
