Will the Republican / GOP / Trump Party Split?

Written by: Alex Patton
Political Consulting

As a company, we embrace “Structured Analysis” techniques in an attempt to minimize biases and ensure we are rigorous in our examination of a question or problem.

This often means before beginning an analysis, we may spend some time reframing a question – especially on that assumes a binary Yes or No conclusion.  “Will the Republican Party split?” can be reframed “Under what conditions do political parties split?”

Another technique is to get out of a binary “yes / no” and ask “What is the probability the Republican Party splits?”

An additional technique we may use is Scenario Analysis.  It is an attempt to generate competing hypotheses that can then be evaluated.  It is also a method that can identify multiple ways in which a situation could evolve and consider the factors.  It is fairly simple technique; we project into the future and brainstorm alternative possible outcomes.  As with brainstorming, some scenarios can be a little out there.  That is okay, it is just important you discuss them.  In the end, you can then assign a likelihood to each scenario.

So in the case, we project two years or three into the future and brainstorm potential scenarios for the Republican party.

In a world after 2022 midterms…..

HIGHLY LIKELY

Nothing Really Changes, and the GOP ‘Civil’ War Is Raging.

  • 2022 midterms are a mixed bag – nothing much changes in power setting in Congress, both wings have victories and defeats.   Maybe control of House and/or Senate flip.
  • The Trump wing and the establishment wing of the party have and will continue to challenge not only Democrats but also the differing Republicans from the other wings. Open seats, especially in red districts, become free-for-alls.
  • One side wins a majority of seats in GOP caucus, but not large enough to move an agenda on their own.
  • Right Wing media fractures – Some conservative media suffering from lawsuits, advertisers fleeing and/or stock holder lawsuits or stockholder pressure realigns and revamps their entire lineup – appeals to ‘establishment’.    Other Right-wing media continues to support Trump wing, offering a platform to promote fringe theories.
  • Q2.0 evolves and flourishes.
  • Corporations who pledged to stop donations to Members of Congress who voted to nullify 2020 election, hold the line.  Fund and promote establishment Republicans.
  • Small-dollar donations continue to fund the non-establishment wing.

Nothing Really Changes, and the GOP Reaches Uneasy Détente.

  • 2022 midterms are a mixed bad – nothing much changes in power setting in Congress, both wings have victories and defeats.   Maybe control of House and/or Senate flip.
  • The Trump wing and the establishment wing of the party no longer actively challenge incumbents but spend money in open seats to win the hearts and minds of their wings’ loyalists.
  • The factions form a coalition type party government that settles into a détente.  No side “wins”, but arrives at a truce, power sharing type agreement, and outcomes are irregular.
  • Corporations who pledged to stop donations to MOC who voted to 2020 nullify elections find loopholes to drain their moral outrage and give instead PACS, to leadership PACS or through trade groups who in turn donate and/or support those members.
  • Right Wing media morphs –  coverage changes with a base of anti-Democrat messaging with specific shows supporting each faction.  Corporate media with stockholders offers a range of opinions.  Internet media continues to be a free-for-all.
  • Other Internet, based conservative media continues to support Trump wing and offer fringe theories and reinforces the trump wing.
  • Q2.0 evolves and flourishes.

LIKELY

Trump Wins – Establishment Wing Dies

  • 2022 midterms became a referendum on Donald Trump (again) and they win.  Ivanka wins a Senate seat beating Sen. Rubio in a primary.  Maybe Laura Trump wins in North Carolina.  Donald Trump extracts revenge and wins primaries against members deemed not loyal enough.  Donald Jr is installed GOP national chair.
  • Party realigns with populists, American-worker message but continues with divisive, off-putting ‘appeal’  in the process – losing educated, women, young, and majorities of minority voters.   Adds to ranks white voters.
  • Trump regains social media platform access.
  • Trump announces run for 2024.
  • ‘Establishment’ Republicans flee the party as registering as NPA or even DEMS.  They are small in number.   Most just realign with Trump.
  • Party shrinks to a national party in name only, continues to win deep red states/districts.   However, controls enough state houses for 2020 redistricting to maintain regional / statewide power.  Over time, in large jurisdictions – likely to lose states like Texas, Georgia, and Florida.
  • Popular vote isn’t with reach, electoral college is trending away.
  • Conservative media does not fracture – Right Wing Media wins/settles lawsuits, advertisers fleeing are replaced with new advertisers, no stockholder pressure.  Media realigns and revamps their entire lineup – appeals and supports Trump wing, Q2.0 flourishes and right-wing media ecosystem is flush with cash.

Establishment Wins – Trump Wing Is Co-Opted And Quietly Fades

  • 2022 midterms became a referendum on Donald Trump (again) – Democrats pick up seats or retain power in House.  Democrats pick up seats in Senate, widen margin.
  • V1 – Party & Voters realigns with a populists, American-worker message, and appeal.  Files down rough edges – Gains in middle / lower class voters regardless of race (actually improves dramatically with Hispanic, Asian, and make small inroads into black voters  – Party competes / wins national elections.
  • V2 – Party and Voters realigns with establishment.  Returns to traditional messaging, files down rough edges.
  • Trump remains on social media sidelines.
  • Corporations who pledged to stop donations to MOC who voted to 2020 nullify elections hold the line and cut off money or move resources to gasp….”supporting business minded Democrats.”

Establishment Wins – Trump Wing Implodes / Dies

  • 2022 midterms became a referendum on Donald Trump (again) and his family is sidelined due to legal issues.  Democrats pick up seats and/or retain power in House.  Democrats pick up seats in Senate, widen margin.
  • The Trump family is crushed or completely distracted by legal issues.  Trump wing is beset by family in fighting for control – will it be Jr or Ivanka?  Or Cotton Or Hawley? Corporations stick by their pledges not to donate to Representatives or Senators that participated in the attempted nullifying of the 2020 election.  Instead, they spend their resources in attacking Trump wing.   Right Wing media does not fracture – Right Wing Media suffering from lawsuits, advertisers fleeing and/or stock holder lawsuits or stockholder pressure realigns and revamps their entire lineup – appeals to establishment, attacks fringe theories.   Media companies are regulated more and fear being held liable for content.  Fringe content is pushed into the deep shadows.
  • Trump remains on social media sidelines.
  • Trump does not have the discipline to keep up a sustained effort needed to emerge through all the issues he faces.
  • Democratic DOJ infiltrates, prosecutes, and jails white supremacist groups and organizations.  Direct ties to Trump wing are proven.
  • Establishment Republicans benefit through no actions of their own.

Establishment Wins – Trump Wing Dies

  • This one could be literally Donald Trump dies and without the specific personality, the Trump wing fades away in his absence.

UNLIKELY

Two scenarios in this are the actual, formal split of the party.  While not impossible, political pros understand that an actual 3rd party means they are highly unlikely to win an election outside a regional area.  We are a first past the post, winner-take-all political system.  Without changes to that system, a 3rd party stands virtually no chance of winning.  Rather, it would likely play the role of spoiler.

Establishment Wins – Trump Wing Starts “Patriot Party”

  • Supported by Internet Media.
  • Small dollar donations support.
  • With Trumps popularity, a significant number of grass-root volunteers, true believers, and potential candidates would migrate.
  • Highly unlikely to win in many competitive places; likely to splay spoiler.
  • Likely to win some deep red seats

Trump Wins – ‘Establishment’ Wing Starts New Party

  • DC, elected officials will not formally switch registration – there is simply too much infrastructure and too much vested in status quo.  Potentially could caucus.
  • Highly unlikely to win in many places; more likely to splay spoiler.

HIGHLY UNLIKELY

Actual Civil War Breaks-Out – violence continues, some states begin to succeed.

CONCLUSION

Frankly, I am not all that happy with this analysis, and I will continue to work on it.  It feels like it lacks imagination, but that may be a function of the most likely scenario is messy and doesn’t neatly fit into a box.  I’ll continue to work on brainstorming outcomes, but in the meantime – strap your helmet on; it’s going to be ugly. What are potential scenarios that I have left out? Factors?

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