Ozean Political Blog
A political blog about digital media, data, research and consulting.
Ranked Choice Voting – Round 1
Round 1 - Ice Cream And the winner is...... Nobody. yet. If you are flow charting out the tabulation, here are the easy as 1-2-3 steps: Step 1 - is someone over 50%+1 (Y - declare winner, N - goto Step 2) Step 2 - eliminate the lowest vote getter and reassign votes. ...
Ranked Choice Voting – an adventure
Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) and Ice CreamWith the pending Democrat primary race for Mayor in NYC using Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), we are thinking through the process of how to properly poll Rank Choice Voting and how to write the back-end code to do the analysis. What...
So, You Want to Run As an Independent or Third-Party Candidate?
So, you want to run as a third party or independent? Best of Luck! For whatever reason, one of the most read blog posts on this website is an explanation of why third parties don’t win. Long story short – the deck is completely stacked against them. But like any good...
Science Friday: Inoculation Theory or How to Protect Yourself From Political Attack
Inoculation Theory In the early 1960, William McGuire began to build the theory of inoculation in and around communication and persuasion. The theory has since been studied extensively with nuances offered (a large debt to Michael Pfau). The communication theory uses...
How Do Non-partisan Elections Remove Partisanship? hint: They do NOT!
We have previously explored the hyper-partisanship and polarization that exists in America. A past client of mine disagreed with my bleak assessment and said reform is "easy" - just make all races non-partisan and THEN the campaigns will be about character and not...
Science Friday: Evangelical Support for Trump and Church Attendance
Science Friday: Evangelical Support for Trump and Church Attendance To the average politico, it is no surprise that 80% of self-identified white evangelical voters supported Donald Trump in 2016 - a trend that continued in 2020 where exit polls showed 76-81% of the...
How digital media boosts and lifts direct mail
Last year our firm was fortunate enough to have a client that liked and encouraged our desire to experiment and test. Situation We were attempting to test the validity and cost effectiveness of obtaining petitions via direct mail. To do so, we created a self...
Science Friday: Psychological targeting as an effective approach to digital mass persuasion
I once met an attorney who was at the top of her field. I mean she is a cracker-jack attorney with a crazy intellect and extremely well respected in the legal field. I asked her how she became such a great attorney. Her answer was simple, "When I was in law school,...
Keys to Success in the Age of Non-stop Campaigning: Digital, Data, and List Building
We are in the age of non-stop campaigning. It goes without saying that the campaign for 2022 began the morning after the November 3rd election. The key to victory? Building a data-driven, digital-first strategy to build your email list.Emails are the golden key to...
Science Friday: Data Behind HUGE 2020 Republican Gains in Osceola County, FL
A lot of press coverage of Trump’s win in Florida surrounded the HUGE Republican gains in Miami-Dade County. Don’t get me wrong, it was critical and impressive, but the Republican performance in Osceola County is an underreported spectacle of Republican success. Below...
Are Republicans Fleeing the Party in Florida?
If you believe the press, Republicans are fleeing the party by the thousands - especially after the Jan 6 incident at the capitol. Well, we don't believe the press at face value, and we prefer to compile our own data and make our own conclusions. In the past, we have...
Science Friday: Who Enters Politics and Why?
Most interesting research questions begin with a real life problem. A general political consultant we work with wanted to target digital ads to 'people who are thinking about running for office.' This is what we do - we build data driven audiences for people to...