Analysis on public sentiment, regulatory trends, persuasion, and campaigns.
Welcome to our deep dive into Florida’s registered electorate. If you want to understand the political currents of the Sunshine State, you have to look under the hood at who is actually registered to vote. In this report, we break down exactly what the Florida...
An authoritative, data-driven analysis of registration trends, party adjustments, and demographic shifts across the Sunshine State. A lot has been written about Florida’s evolution from a razor-thin swing state to a "solidly" red state. Republican voter registration...
Precision Digital Targeting: A New Tool in the Advocacy Toolkit TL;DR Precision digital targeting gives public affairs campaigns a second powerful lever alongside broadcast. Voter file data identifies key individuals with granular detail. Issue modeling predicts...
Empirical Campaign Strategy: Bridging Qualitative & Quantitative Gaps TL;DR Empirical Campaign Strategy demands rigorous data, not just intuition. Focus groups provide rich context but lack statistical generalizability. Quantitative research offers statistically...
Scientific Campaign Strategy: Outperforming Gut Feelings TL;DR Scientific Campaign Strategy leverages data over intuition for superior public affairs outcomes. Formulate precise hypotheses regarding audience behavior and message impact. Implement rigorous measurement...
Motivated Action: Beyond Awareness in Public Opinion TL;DR Motivated action drives real-world change, far exceeding simple awareness. Awareness means knowing an issue exists; salience means deeming it personally important. Intensity measures the emotional charge and...
TL;DR Political polarization has two drivers that dwarf everything else: first-past-the-post elections and extreme gerrymandering. Every other cause, from social media algorithms to geographic self-sorting, operates on top of that foundation. The only fix with large,...
Electoral Politics and RepresentationMy interest here is not in helping the Democratic Party rebuild itself in Florida, but to have a difficult conversation. My first paid campaign experience was in 1992. I took a summer off school and worked as a finance director...
Misinterpreting Public Will: Advocacy's Fatal Flaw TL;DR Misinterpreting Public Will derails advocacy campaigns, leading to wasted resources. Public opinion reflects surface-level sentiment, often polled data. Public will signifies deeper, values-based commitment,...
