The new edition of the American Political Science Review (Feb 2024) published a study that I was extremely excited to read. It explores political ads and persuasion—those annoying little things on which millions of dollars are spent, and for the most part, are written and produced based on rules of thumb passed down from mentors. But what really works and actually moves voters? In this polarized world, does persuasion even work, or are we just trying to mobilize voters?
Well, How Experiments Help Campaigns Persuade Voters: Evidence from a Large Archive of Campaigns’ Own Experiments makes a valiant effort, but falls short in a couple of areas.
While this literature does add to our knowledge, it has a significant blind spot. Due to the research design, only ads from Democratic campaigns were studied—but more on that later.
Additionally, we must critically evaluate the findings, noting that it appears the ad testing company, Swayable, has researchers listed as authors on the paper, and the findings seem to be extremely favorable to the company’s revenue goals.
Noting these two major concerns, let’s explore this study to see how political campaigns (remember—Democratic campaigns only) use experiments to figure out which ads work best.
Spoiler alert: It’s more complicated than you think.
Title: How Experiments Help Campaigns Persuade Voters: Evidence from a Large Archive of Campaigns’ Own Experiments
Citation: Hewitt, L., Broockman, D., Coppock, A., Tappin, B. M., Slezak, J., Coffman, V., Lubin, N., & Hamidian, M. 2024. “How Experiments Help Campaigns Persuade Voters: Evidence from a Large Archive of Campaigns’ Own Experiments.” American Political Science Review, 118(4): 2021-2039. doi:10.1017/S0003055423001387.
Methodology
The study analyzed a treasure trove of data from 146 experiments run by the tech platform Swayable, which worked with Democratic and left-leaning campaigns. These experiments tested 617 ads on over 500,000 respondents. Here’s the gist:
Type of Study: Randomized survey experiments
Sample Size: Over 500,000 respondents, including diverse demographic and political groups
Experimental Design: Ads were tested on treatment groups, while control groups viewed neutral videos (e.g., public service announcements).
Measures: Respondents rated their likelihood to vote for a candidate and their favorability toward that candidate on a scale of 0 to 10. Results were adjusted for variables like gender, age, and partisanship to ensure accuracy.
Each experiment aimed to measure the persuasive impact of specific ad features, such as emotional tone, messenger characteristics, and informational content. Data collection spanned two election cycles, offering a comprehensive look at how ad effectiveness varies by context.
Factors Considered in Ad Effectiveness
Figure 3 of the study provides a detailed analysis of the features evaluated for their impact on ad effectiveness. The following factors were explored:
Tone of the Ad: Whether the ad was positive, negative, or contrast.
Message Content: Inclusion of new facts, emotional appeals (anger, enthusiasm, fear), or policy details.
Messenger Characteristics: The demographic attributes, partisanship, or credibility of the spokesperson.
Production Quality: The perceived professionalism or “polished” nature of the ad.
Pushiness: How assertive the ad was in delivering its message or call to action.
The results revealed a lack of consistency across contexts. For instance, ads emphasizing enthusiasm might perform well in one election but have no discernible effect in another.
Similarly, while emotional appeals were hypothesized to boost effectiveness, the actual impact was context-dependent and often minimal. This inconsistency underscores the challenge of predicting ad success without experimentation.
Results and Findings
Overall Effectiveness: Ads had small but significant persuasive effects. On average:
Vote choice shifted by 2.3 percentage points in 2018 down-ballot races.
Effects dropped to 1.2 points in 2020 down-ballot races and
Effects dropped to 0.8 points in the 2020 presidential race.
Variation in Effectiveness: Persuasion varied significantly among ads. Some were 50% more effective than the average, while others were 50% less effective.
Unpredictable Features: Conventional wisdom about what makes ads effective—like emotional appeals or testimonials—had limited and context-dependent predictive power. What worked in 2018 didn’t necessarily work in 2020.
Implications for Campaigns: Experimentation is invaluable. Simulations showed that campaigns investing in testing ads could dramatically improve their impact, especially in close elections.
Simulations and Their Impact
In what could almost be considered a side note, the researchers conducted simulations to explore the potential value of ad experimentation in campaign strategy. Here’s what they did and what they found:
Method: They modeled scenarios in which campaigns invested resources in testing ads to find the most persuasive ones. This allowed them to model/estimate how much more effective overall advertising efforts could become with such targeted approaches.
Findings: The simulations showed that even modest investments in experimentation could yield significant returns, particularly in close elections. Choosing a highly persuasive ad over a less effective one could shift the needle in tight races, demonstrating the importance of data-driven decision-making.
Once again, it’s important to note that this research was published in conjunction with an ad testing platform.
Critiques of the Research
Generalizability: As discussed, the data came exclusively from Democratic campaigns using the Swayable platform. No conservative ads were included in the analysis. Given the significant personality differences often found between liberals and conservatives, these results may not be generalizable to right-leaning campaigns or voters.
Generalizability (con’t): Additionally, the analysis did not include ballot iniatives or other type of influence campaigns, which are typically more nonpartisan.
Attrition and Sampling Issues: Some experiments lacked complete data on respondents who dropped out, potentially skewing results.
Timing Limitations: Findings are specific to the 2018 and 2020 elections and may not generalize to future elections with different political dynamics, particularly as campaigns continue to learn and improve.
Industry Sponsorship/Relationship: The research was conducted only with ads tested by the Swayable platform. Some of the findings support the use of ad testing. While I’m not accusing the researchers of anything, it’s important to note the relationship. It’s crucial to be critical when interpreting the results.
I will note the authors do a good job and are transparent in offering these caveats.
Additional Areas of Potential Study
Bipartisan Analysis: Expanding the dataset to include Republican campaigns could reveal whether persuasion techniques differ by political party / ideology.
Non-partisan Analysis: Expanding the dataset to include ballot initiatives and issue ads could reveal whether persuasion techniques differ from partisan activities.
Primary / General Election Analysis: Expanding the ads studied to group intra-party (primary) versus inter-party (general) could reveal some significant differences. This is especially critical given the substantial number of elections decided in the primary, influenced by sorting and gerrymandering.
Field Experiments: Testing ads in real-world settings—not just surveys—would enhance ecological validity. Would the results be ‘replicated’ in focus groups?
Ad Context: Future research could explore how competing ads or media coverage influence ad effectiveness.
Conclusion
For me, this is one of those frustrating studies. When you read the title, the title promises answers, but the study raises more questions than it answers.
This research sheds light on how Democratic campaigns use experiments to refine their strategies, emphasizing the need for ad testing in a rapidly changing political environment. However, as Steve Schale, a Democratic operative from Florida, points out, ad-testing can become an obsession that overshadows the larger narrative of the campaign. He writes, “”We (Democrats) were addicted to ad-testing, to the point that it drove decision-making more this cycle than the desire or need to tell a story.”
The study concludes that ad effectiveness is deeply tied to the specific context of each election, meaning strategies that worked in 2018 might not have the same impact in 2020, let along in 2026 or 2028. This highlights the challenge for campaigns: predicting what will work is difficult, and there are no guarantees. In fact, attempting to replicate past success is likely to be a futile endeavor.
A cynic would write, the authors conclude that persusion is extremely context driven, and what may work in one election may not work in another….whomp whomp. Therefore, campaigns should test ads.
Nevertheless, the cumulative impact of even small shifts in ad effectiveness can influence election outcomes, particularly in tight races. The study underscores the growing importance of data-driven decision-making in modern campaigns, but it also leaves many questions unanswered—questions that future research will need to address to refine our understanding of political ad effectiveness.
“Ok, enough about polarization. Got anything else?”
Leave it to a friend to let you know when you’ve beaten a dead horse.
Fine, I went to see Wicked last weekend with my daughter, wife, and another 50 or so theater kids.
As is tradition, I leaned over during the show to share my profound wisdom whispering, “You know this is basically Star Wars, but with brooms. Harry Potter, but with brooms.” My daughter, naturally, rolled her eyes. (To be fair, she rolls her eyes at me constantly, but I could actually hear it this time—even in the dark.)
Let me explain.
The Hero’s Journey
When I teach Advanced Campaign Strategies and Paid Media at the University of Florida, I include a module on the Hero’s Journey. My students, having not signed up for a literature class, often tilt their heads at me like confused puppies. But once they see how it applies, they understand its relevance to politics and public affairs.
The Hero’s Journey is one of the most enduring and versatile narrative structures in storytelling. It serves as a blueprint for understanding stories that transcend culture, geography, and time.
And because of that, in my opinion, it’s essential for any public affairs, government relations, or political operative to understand its power.
Why Study the Hero’s Journey?
Cultural Universality: From The Odyssey to Wicked, this framework reveals the shared storytelling traditions of humanity. It underscores the innate human need to explore transformation and meaning through narrative.
Psychological Depth: Rooted in Jungian archetypes, the Hero’s Journey resonates with individual psychological growth, presenting challenges as metaphors for personal struggles.
Adaptability: It applies to virtually any story—literature, film, or personal narratives—making it an invaluable tool for creators and analysts alike.
The Basic Structure of the Hero’s Journey
The Hero’s Journey unfolds in three acts, each encompassing key stages:
ACT 1: Departure: The hero leaves the ordinary world, guided by a mentor, and steps into the unknown.
ACT 2: Initiation: They face tests, allies, and enemies, culminating in a transformative ordeal.
ACT 3: Return: The hero comes back, bringing newfound wisdom or an “elixir” to benefit their community.
The Hero’s Journey: A Refined Structure
The three main acts can be broken down further using Joseph Campbell’s monomyth outline, a universal framework for storytelling, structured around the hero’s transformation. Below is an expanded explanation of its 12 stages:
ACT 1: Departure
Ordinary World: The mundane life the hero begins in.
Call to Adventure: A challenge disrupts their ordinary life.
Refusal of the Call: The hero resists due to fear or doubt.
Meeting the Mentor: Guidance from a mentor prepares them for the journey.
Crossing the Threshold: The hero steps into the unknown.
ACT 2: Initiation
Tests, Allies, and Enemies: The hero faces challenges and builds alliances.
Approach to the Inmost Cave: They confront deep fears or conflicts.
Ordeal: A life-or-death trial leads to transformation.
Reward (Seizing the Sword): The hero gains knowledge, power, or treasure.
ACT 3: Return
The Road Back: The hero returns, facing residual dangers.
Resurrection: A final test solidifies their transformation.
Return with the Elixir: The hero brings back something to benefit their world.
That’s it. That is most of Hollywood explained. The challenge is once you learn the structure of the Hero’s Journey, you start understanding how ubiquitous it is. It is everywhere.
For example, here’s a breakdown with Star Wars, Harry Potter, and Wicked:
A Hero’s Journey: light sabers, magic wands, and flying brooms.
Hero’s Journey Stage
Ordinary World
Call to Adventure
Refusal of the Call
Meeting the Mentor
Crossing the Threshold
Tests, Allies, and Enemies
Approach to the Inmost Cave
Ordeal
Reward (Seizing the Sword)
The Road Back
Resurrection
Return with the Elixir
Star Wars (Luke Skywalker)
Tatooine, working on a moisture farm.
Message from Princess Leia via R2-D2.
Hesitates due to family obligations.
Obi-Wan Kenobi.
Leaves Tatooine after family is killed.
Joins forces with Han Solo, Leia, and others; faces Darth Vader.
Sneaks into the Death Star to rescue Leia.
Confronts Vader and the Empire.
Destroys the Death Star.
Returns to the Rebel base as a hero.
Emerges as a leader of the Rebellion.
Joins the fight to restore balance to the galaxy. (setting up the sequal to come)
Harry Potter (Harry Potter)
Living in the cupboard under the stairs.
Receiving his Hogwarts letter.
Initially unsure how to navigate his new world.
Hagrid and later Dumbledore.
Boards the train to Hogwarts.
Befriends Ron and Hermione; faces Malfoy and Snape.
Faces challenges in the Forbidden Forest.
Battles Quirrell/Voldemort for the Philosopher’s Stone.
Saves the Stone and secures peace at Hogwarts.
Faces the prospect of another year at Hogwarts with new challenges.
Learns to overcome self-doubt.
Brings hope and inspiration to his friends and peers. (setting up the sequal to come)
Wicked (Elphaba)
Growing up as an outcast in Munchkinland.
Invited to attend Shiz University.
Doubts her ability to fit in at Shiz.
Madame Morrible and Glinda.
Arrives at Shiz and begins magical studies.
Befriends Glinda and Fiyero; faces prejudice and the Wizard.
Discovers the Wizard’s corruption.
Stands against the Wizard’s oppressive rule.
Gains self-acceptance and her powers.
Flees to avoid persecution.
Fakes her death to achieve freedom.
Leaves Oz but transforms Glinda into a leader. (setting up the sequel to come)
Conclusion
Said, another way, my little trip to see the movie wasn’t an ordinary trip, it was an epic Hero’s Journey.
Ordinary World: A typical Saturday, before watching UF rout FSU.
Call to Adventure: “Dad, you’re coming, right?”
Refusal of the Call: “Couldn’t I just stay home and smoke some ribs?”
Meeting the Mentor: My wife, reminding me I’d enjoy it and spending time with my daughter.
Crossing the Threshold: Boarding the car with excited daugher and said wife.
Tests, Allies, and Enemies: My daughter’s withering eye-rolls at my whispered commentary.
Approach to the Inmost Cave: Waiting for Defying Gravity.
Ordeal: Sitting still for nearly three hours, buttery fingers, singing theatre kids, and hearing the eye rolls.
Reward: Sharing the joy of a movie/musical with my daughter and wife.
The Road Back: Riding home, processing the message and trying to sing Popular not knowing any words.
Resurrection: My daughter admitting (begrudgingly) that my “Star Wars with brooms, Harry Potter with brooms” comment wasn’t entirely wrong.
Return with the Elixir: A newfound appreciation for musicals and a silver dad medal.
See? The Hero’s Journey really is everywhere—even when you’re just a dad at a musical before a football game. (in which UF crushed FSU by a score of 31–11!)
All kidding aside, understanding the Hero’s Journey is critical for political professionals. Whether crafting campaign narratives, shaping public perceptions, or building coalitions, the ability to harness this timeless storytelling structure can be the difference between shaping influnce or falling on deaf ears.
PS. Reminder, most of the time, it’s not about the policy, it’s the Vibes.
I was recently gifted a signed first edition of Kermit Roosevelt’s book “Countercoup: The Struggle for the Control of Iran”. It is a first-hand account of the CIA’s involvement in the coup in Iran.
I have been thinking about the power of memes and their appeal while reading the book.
On page 188, Kermit writes:
“I also ordered the CIA artists to get to work on artwork that could be used to support the coup plan. I wanted posters, leaflets, and other materials that would appeal to the Iranian people and encourage them to support the new government. I also wanted to have some propaganda materials that could be used to discredit the Mossadegh government and make it look like they were working against the interests of the Iranian people.”
To put this into context, he asked for artwork before he received approval for the plan to foment a coup in Iran.
Said a different way, the very first thing done to foment a coup, was to have the CIA create memes. Why?
“Persuasion runs through the peripheral route.”
Humans have amazing brains that excel at keeping us (for the most part) alive. Because we are so efficient at this, our brains are often processing information much quicker than we can keep up.
The Limbic System
The brain can be split into two intertwined systems.
System 1 is quick (lighting quick) and operates at a subconscious level. It is automatic and we are almost powerless to stop it. It is a massive undertaking of processing stimuli including emotions to quickly assess a friend or foe. System 1 is often called the peripheral route.
System 2 is slower and operates when we DECIDE to use it. It is where we attempt to do our rational thinking. It requires great effort and is taxing. As a rule, we don’t spend much time here. System 2 is often called the deliberate route.
It is estimated that 5% of our thinking time may be spent in System 2.
Most of the time, especially in politics, and for those that aren’t that into politics, we spend a vast majority of time in system 1. Even those that have a well-thought-out political ideology and framework, set it and forget it.
It is the two-system brain that makes memes so persuasive.
The peripheral route of persuasion involves the recipient of the message focusing on peripheral cues, such as the attractiveness of the source, the credibility of the message, or the emotional appeal of the message, rather than on the content of the message itself.
Memes are little nuggets that operate in system 1. Often they confirm our biases, but they also are entertaining. Memes can be used to appeal to people’s emotions, values, and identities. All System 1 thinking.
On top of that, memes are easily shareable garnering discussion among peer groups and creating a shared understanding.
The quote “persuasion runs through the peripheral route” is a reminder that we should be critical of the messages we receive, especially when the messages are trying to persuade us to do something. We should not simply accept a message at face value, but should instead try to evaluate the arguments presented and consider the peripheral cues that are being used to influence us.
If we don’t, we may have grumpy cat to blame for our next revolution.
The ‘@’ Award & Twitter Power Users Ranking of Florida’s Elected Officials
Today Ozean announces 1) the 2023 Twitter Power Users of Florida’s Elected Officials Ranking and 2)The ‘@’ Award.
“It is no secret that significant political communication is happening on Twitter, and Ozean Media is studying the various ways Legislators use or don’t use Twitter to communicate. During this process, we have developed a method to quantify and acknowledge the power-users of Twitter of Florida’ elected officials,” said Alex Patton of Ozean Media.
Twitter Power Rankings
2023 Twitter Power Users of Florida’s Elected Officials Ranking acknowledges the top 10 power users of Twitter for the Florida House, Senate, executive branch, and federal branch.
The ‘@’ Award will be presented to the top power user of Twitter as measured for the time period of Florida’s regularly scheduled session. After session concludes, The ‘@’ Award will be presented to the top-ranked state Representative and Senator.
“We understand there is a risk in studying Twitter with the current environment and changes with the platform, but we want to attempt to better understand how elected officials are using Twitter. We hope the Power Ranking is a first step,” concluded Ben Torpey of Ozean Media.
The initial rankings will be computed using the time-period of Feb 20, 2023 – March 3, 2023, and will be released Friday, March 3 at 3 pm.
The rankings for The ‘@’ Award will only cover the time-period of Florida’s regular session (March 5 – May 7 or Florida Session’s sine die whichever is later). New rankings are computed and published every Friday during the special session at 3pm.
Leaderboards for Florida’s executive branch and federal branch are also compiled and ranked but are not eligible for The ‘@’ Award in 2023.
Given a specified time interval and a list of Twitter handles, the algorithm assigns a tailored weighting to variables including tweets, retweets, replies, follower count, following count, and effective reach.
The leaderboard is updated weekly and then displayed as an ascending order ranking. Only the top 10 are released.
Last year our firm was fortunate enough to have a client that liked and encouraged our desire to experiment and test.
Situation
We were attempting to test the validity and cost effectiveness of obtaining petitions via direct mail. To do so, we created a self contained mail piece with perforated petitions. To further reduce friction, we paid for return postage and used variable printing to pre-fill the petitions with all needed information. Literally “all” the voter needed to do was sign, date, tear off, and drop in the mail.
Our test universe were households with voters with a history of voting in primaries. It was a large enough test universe to allow for testing multiple conditions.
We were brainstorming different creative elements (social proof, colors, calls to action) and then Ben asked “Why are we limiting ourselves to only direct mail?”
A great question. We approached the client and said since we are testing direct mail, let’s see if we can push it. The client agreed with the push and added some additional funds to the project.
We separated three test groups.
Group 1 – Control – received direct mail only.
Group 2 – Direct mail with a layered a digital campaign over the top.
Group 3 – Direct mail, layered digital campaign, and received a personalized text message.
Most direct mail response rates are 1-2%. We hypothesized that the control group’s response rate would be 1% and Group 2 & Group 3 would be lifted to 2.5%.
Once again, we were dead wrong.
We had a mail date of mid-month.
Digital Media
10 days before the mail went out, groups 2 & 3 began seeing a targeted digital campaign. The creative essentially said “Look for your petition in the mail” and it clicked through to a landing page specifically about the petition.
Both display and facebook were used. The digital audience mirrored the mail groups exactly using proprietary methods.
The digital campaign continued until 10 days after the mail drop. 20 days in total.
Text campaign
The day of the mail drop, Group 3 began to receive personalized text messages:
{first_name}, this is Al from the xx campaign.In the coming days,you will receive a petition in the mail.Please read,sign & return.”
The text was repeated 2 days later, minus the opt outs of course.
Waiting
And then we waited. 1 day…2 days….7 days….nothing.
The panic began to set in. Did we just waste a a ton of money?
No, we did not.
Then came the glorious day of first returns. The PO Box was stuffed AND it contained a note from the post master “please see us at the counter.” At that time, we were handed a basket of returns.
We were excited, and couldn’t wait to run the stats.
But how long could we wait for returns before computing the stats?
Within 10 business days of returns beginning, we received 78% of what were in the end going to receive. However, we received returns for 45 days. Yes, they slowed to a trickle, but I know from the date of signature, the petitions were being signed up to 40 days after the mail drop.
We were extremely pleased with the returns, but couldn’t wait to explore the data to explore was there a real difference between the groups?
When we finally went two consecutive business days, we allowed ourselves permission to compute the “final” stats:
%
Group 1 Response Rates
%
Group 2 Response Rates
%
Group 3 Response Rates
Cost Effectiveness
Yes, we did spend more on Groups 2 & 3. So was the increased response rates more cost effective?
Yes! Group 2 (digital media only), even with an increase in spending was a 1% reduction in cost per returned petition when compared to the control group.
Group 3 (digital media and texting), Even with an increase in spend, it was a 3.6% reduction in cost per returned petition when compared to the control group.
Conclusion
The secret sauce of this entire experiment was limiting the waste and precisely targeting the digital. As we briefly mentioned, it was limiting the digital audiences to as close of an exact overlay as possible. We were targeting super-voters in a specific geographical area (not everyone with an interest in politics). It was this precision that drove response rates AND made it cost effective.
How did we do that exactly? Call us about your next project……
We are in the age of non-stop campaigning. It goes without saying that the campaign for 2022 began the morning after the November 3rd election. The key to victory? Building a data-driven, digital-first strategy to build your email list.
Emails are the golden key to successful campaigns. Emails are a direct way to identify and contact your supporters for fundraising, campaign updates, and calls to action. Most importantly, building your own list gives your campaign or organization independence – no social media bureaucrat can magically take away your ability to communicate with your audience.
Data-driven, digital-first strategies have transformed list building. Long gone are the days of waiting for supporters to put their name on a physical sign-in sheet at a campaign event. Rather, it is now possible to identify, target, and recruit the most likely candidates to build your list.
Correctly building and maintaining your database is critical for success. Often, the low-hanging fruit is individuals who have a history of donating to similar causes or candidates. Once the initial database is built-out, you have a list of interested individuals to target digitally with the goal of collecting their email addresses.
Using precise, IP-targeted software, you can consistently stay in front of your target audience with highly targeted digital ads. When the ad is clicked, your target will be asked to submit their email.
Our clients have had great success building their list in the months and even years leading up to an election. Beginning this process well in advance allows you to amass a list of supporters ready to activate as the election draws near.
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
Cookie
Duration
Description
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional
11 months
The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
viewed_cookie_policy
11 months
The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
But what really works and actually moves voters? In this polarized world, does persuasion even work, or are we just trying to mobilize voters?
Well, How Experiments Help Campaigns Persuade Voters: Evidence from a Large Archive of Campaigns’ Own Experiments makes a valiant effort, but falls short in a couple of areas.
While this literature does add to our knowledge, it has a significant blind spot. Due to the research design, only ads from Democratic campaigns were studied—but more on that later.
Additionally, we must critically evaluate the findings, noting that it appears the ad testing company, Swayable, has researchers listed as authors on the paper, and the findings seem to be extremely favorable to the company’s revenue goals.
Noting these two major concerns, let’s explore this study to see how political campaigns (remember—Democratic campaigns only) use experiments to figure out which ads work best.
Spoiler alert: It’s more complicated than you think.
