Ozean Political Blog
A political blog about digital media, data, research and consulting.
2020 Electoral College Contest Results
Ozean Media and Meer Research recently sponsored a contest asking people to predict the Electoral College outcome for 2020. We thought we would share the predictions and results with you. Winner of Electoral College – Biden / Harris 90% of the contestants picked the...
Election 2020 – Alachua Style
Was asked a question, "What precincts are you watching closely for Election Night in Alachua?" The true answer is "none", but if I were to watch some here is what they would be: There are several precincts that were close to 50 / 50 in 2016. There are 5 that were...
Win $250 – you pick em! Electoral College Contest
The Meer Research Electoral Prediction contest is now open. You can make your predictions by clicking here. The contest closes Saturday (Oct 3) at midnight.
POTUS IMPEACHMENT – More Research Needed
Interesting test this week with Meer Research in regard's to the impeachment of President Donald Trump. This is a cross-post from Meer Research. We had an internal debate on the potential wording of the question. Instead of guessing, we set out to do a quick simple...
Florida Voter File – Churn
Some weekend projects start with a simple question, this past weekend was no different. "How much churn is there in Florida's voter file?" We wanted to get a sense of how much churn was in the voter file leading up to the 2020 election. We took the voterfile from Jan...
Scandal in politics – where is the line?
I have written about political scandal before, but that research seems outdated in today's political landscape. Today's landscape seems bi-polar. Sometime scandal will drive people from office to resign in shame- Sen Franken, Gov Sanford - while other times it just...
Florida GOP is Winning the Voter Registration Battle
Statewide elections in Florida are among the most competitive and hotly contested elections in the United States. Since 2012, six statewide elections have been decided by less than 1.2% while three have been won by fewer than 35,000 votes. Once you realize there are...
Quick Question: Is there a correlation between primary turnout and general election turnout in Florida?
Great question via twitter this morning - is there a correlation between primary election turnout and general election turnout? My first guess was "no, it is more a function of competitive races on the ballot, and historically one party will have incumbency." BUT -...
This Polling Stuff is KILLING us!
Daily, we get a new approval rating on Donald Trump and NONE of them agree. It seems my Republican friends believe his approval is skyrocketing and my Democrat friends believe it is in the toilet. Both can't be right....or can they? The Battle of the Polling Methods...
Public Opinion Doesn’t Exist
Ever have that book that stays with you and gnaws at you well after you finish reading it? One of my recent reads has been How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg. It is a highly recommended read, but Chapter 17 is causing me...
Reading list – Q4 2017
I was asked yesterday "Whatcha reading?" Here is the 2017 Q4 Reading list: Principles by Ray Dalio- GREAT business/life book. I wish I would have read it before I ever started any businesses. The Drunkard's Walk by Leonard Mlodinow - A look at how randomness,...
What is an Ozean?
A long time ago, we were going to change the world. We decided we had enough of that stuffy corporate world with its salary, benefits, and ample cash flow. We thought we had a good business plan, we thought we had completed the research - and we jumped. We started...