Statewide elections in Florida are among the most competitive and hotly contested elections in the United States. Since 2012, six statewide elections have been decided by less than 1.2% while three have been won by fewer than 35,000 votes. Once you realize there are 13 million registered voters in Florida, these results are jarring.
Florida Democrats are Losing the Registration Game
Since 2012, only one Democrat (Nikki Fried) has won a statewide election in Florida – a result decided by just 6,500 votes. Clearly, Florida Democrats have a ‘winning’ problem.
In the age of Trump, politicos anticipated a better performance by Florida Democrats in 2016 and then again in 2018 amid the supposed “blue wave.” Rather than riding the blue wave, Florida voters fought the current and elected a Trump-endorsed Republican governor and fired an 18-year incumbent Democratic Senator. Why? How?
Florida GOP is Closing the Registration Gap
Many reasons could explain the poor performance by Florida Democrats but one major data point stands out – voter registration. As of late, Republicans have been beating Democrats at their own game. Plain and simple.
Although the Republican Party is currently home to one of the most unfavorable presidents in American history, Florida Democrats hold the smallest lead over Republicans in voter party registration since Florida began recording the statistic in 1972.
Compare that to just ten years ago when Florida Democrats had a 700,000 registration lead over Republicans, setting the stage for Obama’s sweeping victory in 2008. Since then, Republicans shaved the Democratic lead down to just 250,000 – a reduction of roughly 450,000 registered voters.
Can Florida Turn Blue in 2020?
Anything is possible. But fifteen months from election day, Republican registration is on track for a Trump victory in Florida. Bar a Trump campaign catastrophe, an economic collapse, or Joe Biden forgetting that he is running for president – again, anything is possible – historical election data reveals that Democrats need a 500,000 lead in voter registration for a solid chance at winning Florida in 2020.
Unfortunately for Republicans, it is not unprecedented for Democrats to grow their registration lead in the year leading up to a presidential election (see graph from 2007-2008). On top of that, Democrats identified the need to register Florida voters as evidenced by Andrew Gillum’s plan to register 1 million voters before the 2020 election. All Gillum has to do is follow through and turn down Hamilton tickets.
Only time will tell if Florida Democrats rise to the occasion.
I will check in with updates as we countdown to election day 2020.
