Ozean Political Blog
A political blog about digital media, data, research and consulting.
Social Media, Deepfakes, Lies and the Perception of Truth: Why We Believe Deepfakes
Deepfakes are more than Donald Trump's foot fetish for Elon or Joe Biden playing video games with a hall of Presidents; they are way more than just some Internet novelty act. These AI-generated videos (the subject of this week’s study, mimic people, making them...
Using AI to Simulate Congress – It’s a Whole New World
A recent discussion about AI and virtual agents led to an intriguing question: Could they be trained to predict public opinion? There are companies attempting to train agents by census data, voter files, and other assorted data then spinning them up and polling the...
Fake News and the Sleeper Effect: Why Misinformation Lingers in Memory
Ever shared a post only to realize later it was fake news? You’re not alone, and psychology explains why. The “sleeper effect,” a phenomenon where a message’s influence grows over time as its source fades from memory, has gained new relevance in the age of social...
Preparing the Political Environment Before Introducing A Policy Change
When I was a young, student leader at the University of Florida, I had an eye-opening experience during a meeting with a Congressperson in D.C. I had meticulously prepared my case for a legislative change affecting students and felt confident as the discussion...
Campaigns, Ads, and Experiments: How Political Science Meets Persuasion
The new edition of the American Political Science Review (Feb 2024) published a study that I was extremely excited to read. It explores political ads and persuasion—those annoying little things on which millions of dollars are spent, and for the most part, are written...
The Audacious Public Affairs Playbook: What Bold Tactics Are Being Used
In political theory, two dominant models attempt to explain how power and public policy are shaped within a democracy. The first is pluralism, the idea that a diverse array of interest groups competes within the political arena, with policies emerging as a compromise...
Can AI Change Minds in a Polarized Electorate?
Rarely do I read an academic study that terrifies me. Well...unfortunately my colleague sent me a study that sent chills down my spine. The future is here, and we aren't likely to be prepared for it. As we have written before, persuasion is hard. If you’ve ever...
The Hero’s Journey in Politics: Lightsabers, Wands, and Brooms
"Ok, enough about polarization. Got anything else?" Leave it to a friend to let you know when you’ve beaten a dead horse. Fine, I went to see Wicked last weekend with my daughter, wife, and another 50 or so theater kids. As is tradition, I leaned over during the show...
The Slow and Consequential Death of Local Newspapers
News Deserts and Civic Erosion: The Consequences of Losing Local Journalism Local newspapers are closing at an alarming rate. Not only are they disappearing, but many are also merging or consolidating operations (looking at you Gannett). Since 2005,...
Understanding Political Polarization: Causes, Impacts, and Why It Matters
Introduction to Polarization I’ve written about polarization many times over the past year. It’s one of the most significant factors in U.S. politics today, if not the most. Typically, I focus on one individual study or paper, but today I want to zoom out and examine...
The Importance of Realistic Goals When Influencing Low-Motivation, Partisan Audiences
Introduction: Why Fast Results Aren’t Always Realistic A potential client reached out a few months ago with a challenging request: they wanted us to “change minds… fast.” After a deeper dive, it became clear they were really hoping to quickly alter a specific, public...
Your Momma Was Wrong: When being a Jerk can be the Key to Persuasion
Alright, listen up, you knuckleheaded jerkfaces—political debates today aren’t exactly shining examples of polite discourse. They’ve turned into verbal cage matches where name-calling, trash talk, owning each other after destroying each other, and cheap shots are just...