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How many parties does the United States REALLY have?

How many parties does the United States REALLY have?

by | Oct 27, 2023 | Political Research

In the email bag “Alex, I contend we have a 3 party system now: Democrats, Traditional Republicans, and the Tea Party/MAGA/Hard right. These three parties rarely agree on anything. Prove me wrong and write it up online!”

As always, your wish is my command.

As you read this, keep in mind Party Identification is not equal to Political Ideology.

Party Identification

Gallop tracks party identification, by asking “do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?”

Yes, we know there are Libertarians, Green, and a host of small additional parties, but we mostly discount them. Why?

Because in America, where the parties and politicians write the rules for ballot access, it becomes difficult for small parties to get on the ballot.

In addition,

  • Independents don’t agree on much, other than their dislike of politics or the two major parties.
  • Donors are partisan and don’t like investing in flyers.
  • The Psychology of Voting
  • Independents who do vote are for the most part closeted partisans

We see this when Gallop asks a follow-up question to Independents:

When Gallops “As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?”

But at times candidates not from one of the major two parties do win.

Typically, three conditions are necessary

  • The independent candidate is independently wealthy.
  • The independent candidate is famous.
  • One of the two candidates from the two major parties is significantly flawed.

A perfect example of this is the WWF Superstar Jesse Ventura’s successful independent campaign for Governor of Minnesota.

So, we have two main parties in the US. However, these two parties house many political ideologies.

Political Ideology

America is much, much more diverse than right/left, red/blue, Rep/Dem.

There is no one definitive answer to the question of how many political ideologies are in American politics because political ideology is a complex and fluid concept.

However, many are familiar with a two-axis approach with social and economics being the two scales. I have read addtional research identifying up to 16 distinct ideologies, but I think that is splitting hairs a bit.

These clusters are not mutually exclusive and at times do over-lap.

My friends at Echelon Insights recently updated their nationwide survey of ideology based on these two axes, identifying 4 clusters.

Echelon continues their research asking, if America was a multi-party system, what would that look like?

Conclusion

So, when our reader writes “Alex, I contend we have a 3 party system now: Democrats, Traditional Republicans, and the Tea Party/MAGA/Hard right. These three parties rarely agree on anything.”

I would disagree, we still have two major parties in America by design and infrastructure.

These two parties house different ideologies that often in other proportional systems of government would be viable political parties. But rather than proportional government, America has first past the post elections, leading to two parties.

Within these parties, these clusters fight for power at times these clusters change, meld, and eject themselves. It has been like this since America’s founding.

In modern times, the GOP traditionally housed Republicans who believed in free markets and limited government intervention in the economy, low taxes, and a strong national defense.

Now, it also houses a newer, MAGA faction that believes in supporting former President Donald Trump and his policies (whatever they may be). They are often characterized by their nationalist, populist, and protectionist views. MAGA Republicans are typically more “conservative” than traditional Republicans on both social and economic issues.

It is hard to tell, noting that the current GOP officially has NO PLATFORM.

The populist / birch / maga sect has traditionally been housed in the GOP to varying degrees of strength. Buchanan and Goldwater times are two examples, but the group never really gained much power within the GOP.

That has changed. In fact, one could make the argument that DJT was an independent/third-party candidate who instead of running outside the party structure, ran inside, took over, and captured the GOP.

As seen this week in the House’s cluster of an operation of the election of a new Speaker and the charts above, the MAGA sect is now the dominant faction in the GOP.

Traditional Republicans are now faced with a choice:

  • Go the Mitt Romney route and retire/quit, or
  • Adopt new beliefs, or
  • Stay inside the party and fight to re-establish dominance, or
  • Leave the party.

Here is a dirty little secret – I have little to no faith in Traditional Republicans’ ability to re-take control of the GOP. I have witnessed their cowardness in the face of the rise of MAGA, and without massive losses at the ballot box, the GOP is MAGA.

In the coming months and years, Traditional Republicans will assimilate (justifying it by saying that anyone is better than any Democrat), be ejected, drop out, or choose a different path. Simply, Traditional Republicans are not welcome in today’s MAGA GOP.

And because of that, I do think depending on how the 2024 election goes, we may be witnessing a major realignment happening that could further extend the chart above with yet another cross-over.

So, here is the bottom line: we have two parties, the rules and first past the post elections in America virtually guarantee a two-party system, but in the coming months and years, we may have a slew of free agents.

Sidenote

In his farewell address, George Washington tried to warn us about political parties.

“I have already intimated to you the danger of Parties in the State, with particular reference to the founding of them on Geographical discriminations. Let me now take a more comprehensive view, & warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the Spirit of Party, generally.

“This Spirit, unfortunately, is inseperable from our nature, having its root in the strongest passions of the human Mind. It exists under different shapes in all Governments, more or less stifled, controuled, or repressed; but in those of the popular form it is seen in its greatest rankness and is truly their worst enemy.

“The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge natural to party dissention, which in different ages & countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders & miseries, which result, gradually incline the minds of men to seek security & repose in the absolute power of an Individual: and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty.

“Without looking forward to an extremity of this kind (which nevertheless ought not to be entirely out of sight) the common & continual mischiefs of the spirit of Party are sufficient to make it the interest and the duty of a wise People to discourage and restrain it.”

The Power of Memes in Persuasion and Public Relations

The Power of Memes in Persuasion and Public Relations

by | Oct 7, 2023 | Political Media

I was recently gifted a signed first edition of Kermit Roosevelt’s book “Countercoup: The Struggle for the Control of Iran”.  It is a first-hand account of the CIA’s involvement in the coup in Iran.   

I have been thinking about the power of memes and their appeal while reading the book. 

On page 188, Kermit writes:

“I also ordered the CIA artists to get to work on artwork that could be used to support the coup plan. I wanted posters, leaflets, and other materials that would appeal to the Iranian people and encourage them to support the new government. I also wanted to have some propaganda materials that could be used to discredit the Mossadegh government and make it look like they were working against the interests of the Iranian people.”

To put this into context, he asked for artwork before he received approval for the plan to foment a coup in Iran.

Said a different way, the very first thing done to foment a coup, was to have the CIA create memes.  Why?

“Persuasion runs through the peripheral route.”

Humans have amazing brains that excel at keeping us (for the most part) alive. Because we are so efficient at this, our brains are often processing information much quicker than we can keep up.

The Limbic System

The brain can be split into two intertwined systems.

System 1 is quick (lighting quick) and operates at a subconscious level. It is automatic and we are almost powerless to stop it. It is a massive undertaking of processing stimuli including emotions to quickly assess a friend or foe. System 1 is often called the peripheral route.

System 2 is slower and operates when we DECIDE to use it. It is where we attempt to do our rational thinking. It requires great effort and is taxing. As a rule, we don’t spend much time here. System 2 is often called the deliberate route.

It is estimated that 5% of our thinking time may be spent in System 2.

Most of the time, especially in politics, and for those that aren’t that into politics, we spend a vast majority of time in system 1. Even those that have a well-thought-out political ideology and framework, set it and forget it.

It is the two-system brain that makes memes so persuasive.

The peripheral route of persuasion involves the recipient of the message focusing on peripheral cues, such as the attractiveness of the source, the credibility of the message, or the emotional appeal of the message, rather than on the content of the message itself.

Memes are little nuggets that operate in system 1. Often they confirm our biases, but they also are entertaining. Memes can be used to appeal to people’s emotions, values, and identities. All System 1 thinking.

On top of that, memes are easily shareable garnering discussion among peer groups and creating a shared understanding.

The quote “persuasion runs through the peripheral route” is a reminder that we should be critical of the messages we receive, especially when the messages are trying to persuade us to do something. We should not simply accept a message at face value, but should instead try to evaluate the arguments presented and consider the peripheral cues that are being used to influence us.

If we don’t, we may have grumpy cat to blame for our next revolution.

Most Punchable Face in Politics is CANCELLED!

Most Punchable Face in Politics is CANCELLED!

by | Sep 25, 2023 | Ozean Media

There are dumb moves, and then there are really dumb moves.  

This past weekend, in a fit of smart-alecness I announced on social media that I was going to sponsor a “Most Politically Punchable Face” tournament.   It was going to be bracket style and include seeds for each region.  It was an open call for nominations.  

Yeah, terrible idea.  What I put up in a smart-alec way, quickly turned…well scary.

No kidding I had every intention of putting up a ‘who has the most punchable face in politics bracket’, excluding myself to allow others to have a chance to win.

In fact, I had gone as far as starting to program it, had seeding for east, west, south and north divisions completed, written the “rules” and had selected an equal number of members of both parties.

It was going to be a riot.  I thought in today’s media environment, it would be an eye-catching, silly stunt to drive some PR and “engagement.”

Instead, it was a total and complete lack of judgment on my part, and I apologize.

I have since deleted the social media posts and will issue a variation of this post on those channels.   

At times, today’s politics veers into actual political violence because norms are eroding and people are … upset.

Upon seeing some of the comments and DMs, I quickly realized I want no part in contributing to this environment or erosion of norms.

Violence is not acceptable in politics, and I can’t ask for civility and then engage in nonsense.

I am sorry.

Science, Doubt, and Hucksters

Science, Doubt, and Hucksters

by | Jul 31, 2023 | Political Consulting

This weekend I took my son to see the movie Oppenheimer.  Our car-ride discussion centered around the process the scientists went through and how vicious their disagreements turned.   My son was floored by how ‘teammates’ were so ‘adversarial.’  I said welcome to ‘science.’

Unless you have served on a local committee to name a new church pastor, you haven’t seen petty fights until you observe the academic arena.  But here is the thing, the “fight” is the process of science. 

Science is never settled; doubt and skepticism are always part of the process.   When a new paper comes out, even if it challenges conventional wisdom only slightly, scientists tend to tear it apart.  They rejoice in dissecting the methodologies, assumptions, and conclusions.  

The uncertainty is especially pronounced in the social sciences because human behavior is so messy and difficult to replicate. 

Recently, I listened to a podcast ironically entitled “Not Another Politics Podcast” produced by the University of Chicago.  It was an interview with the authors, David E. Broockman and Joshua Kalla about their paper “Consuming cross-cutting media causes learning and moderates attitudes: A field experiment with Fox News viewers” 

The hosts had an insightful interview with the lead author and in fairness discussed the caveats and potential additional research needed.  After the interview ended, the three hosts spent the next half or so of the podcast expanding on the criticisms of the paper’s findings. 

If you don’t understand the process, one would think the hosts were jerks.  Rather than being jerks, the hosts were attempting to understand where this experiment fit into the body of literature, what questions are unanswered, and what additional research should / needs to be done to add nuance and enrich the body of knowledge.

And yes, this process is messy, and yet it is normal and expected in the academic world. 

The scientific process

  • Make Observations
  • Ask Questions / Develop Hypotheses
  • Test Hypotheses (experiments, surveys, case studies, observational studies, meta-studies)
  • Analyze Data
  • Draw Conclusions
  • Communicate findings
  • Start all over

For academics, this is the process:  Nerd fights, and I appreciate it.  In fact, I love it.  Over time, it is this process that leads to a richer understanding, nullification of errors, and scientific advances.    

At times, the search for knowledge turns personal and petty, but most of the time it is a good-faith effort to advance the entire body of knowledge or at least win a debate.    

However,  the scientific process allows charlatans, hucksters, and scoundrels to feed the public or their tribe bullshit. 

These hacks use the uncertainty inherent in the process to disparage the knowledge, the process, and the participants.  And frustratingly, they often know better. 

It is this exact process that allows bad-faith actors like the good ol tobacco companies to operate.

COVID and Scientific Process

COVID is an example.  When COVID was new, there was a lot of uncertainty.  When COVID vaccines were being developed and new, there was a lot more uncertainty.  And as COVID matures and mutates, we start the entire process over again….and again….and again.

Green Energy and Scientific Process

It is also one of the larger mistakes advocates make when discussing green energy and climate change: “The science is settled!” is absolutely a strategic communication mistake.   By definition, the science is never settled. 

Anyone can point to any number of esoteric debates about climate models, data, and study methodologies that demonstrate “doubt” about climate science.   And each time one does, they can rightfully mock those that exclaim the “science is settled!”

An interesting example is a deeper dive into researcher Roger Pielke’s career.     

It’s the Intent

While questioning science is critical to the process, the intent matters. 

Is one trying to suggest additional lines of inquiry, or write a clickbait article to serve a political purpose, or enrage you on cable news? 

Admittedly, communicating about science is difficult.    However, one thing is certain – the scientific process is never settled.   

Conclusion

I learned a lot in grad school, nothing more important than how to be a healthy skeptic and that studies are not to be accepted at face value AND yet that doesn’t mean they are false.  Because the other critical question I learned in grad school “When faced with two seemingly contradictory findings, ask yourself, under what conditions can both findings be true?”

Welcome to science son.  It is vicious and works…eventually.

Additional Reading

For political nerds see Alan Abramowitz versus Morris Fiorina on polarization.  Essentially, Fiorina argues that polarization is largely limited to the political elite, while Abramowitz argues that it has spread to the mass public.  They have spent years sniping at each other over data sources, measurement, interpretation of data, the unit of analysis, and seemingly the color yellow.    

Ozean Media Announces @ ShevrinJones as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

Ozean Media Announces @ ShevrinJones as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

by | May 17, 2023 | Political Research

Ozean Media Announces @ ShevrinJones as Winner of The ‘@’ Award 

Rep. Shevrin “Shev” Jones is Recognized as the Twitter Power User for Florida Senate

Alachua, FL – May 17, 2023– Ozean Media, a political affairs firm specializing in research, data, and media, announces @ShevrinJones (Senator Shevrin “Shev” Jones) as the winner of The ‘@’ Award for the Florida Senate.

“Senator Jones is the clear leader among his peers in the Florida Senate in the use of Twitter,” said Alex Patton, Managing Partner of Ozean Media. “Senator Jones was neck and neck with Leader Book, but never relinquished his lead throughout the period of measurement. If other elected officials are looking to up their Twitter game, Senator Jones is a model worth studying.”

“It is no secret that significant political communication has been happening on Twitter, and Ozean Media is studying the various ways elected officials use or don’t use Twitter. The best in class rather than only broadcasting are interacting with people outside the political bubble and are using rich media such as images and videos”, concluded Patton

“We knew studying Twitter at a time of massive changes on the platform would be risky, but we believe it was worth it. We believe we collected the largest sample of tweets from Florida Legislators to date, and we have gained a greater understanding of how elected officials are using Twitter,” said Ben Torpey, Ozean Media Consultant.

The ‘@’ Award will be presented at to Senator Jones at his convenience in late May 2023. More information about the award, the final top 10 ranking, week-to-week standings, and the final report can be found at: Twitter Final Report – 2023 FL Legislature. 

About Ozean Media

Ozean Media is a strategic partner in political affairs, providing consulting and public relations services to drive the movement of audiences toward a specific policy or cause. Ozean leverages research, data, message development, and media to achieve our clients’ goals. More information can be found at ozeanmedia.com.

About The ‘@’ Award

The ‘@’ Award recognizes the top Twitter user among Florida’s House of Representatives and Senate based on a proprietary algorithm that weighs factors such as follower count, tweets, retweets, likes, and engagement. The award was originally scheduled to collect data until May 5, 2023, but Twitter’s API changes restricted access to data, so the award is based on data collected through Feb 26 – April 28, 2023.