How much is a scandal worth politically?

How much is a scandal worth politically?

scandal

 

Welcome to Science Friday.  A day when we look at some research and discuss the findings and/or implications.

When I was on my rant about Mark Sanford’s “win”, I came across this gem from Nate Silver :  Sanford and the Electoral Effect of Sex Scandals, which in turn lead me to this study:

The Impact of Incumbent Scandals on Senate Elections, 1974-2008

by Nicholas Chad Long of St. Edward’s University.

Scandals were categorized on the nature of scandal (abuse of office, financial, sex) to see if there were differences.

The results reveal that those senators seeking reelection while confronting a scandal suffered a six percent decrease from their expected vote. They also attracted higher quality challengers who spent more money against them

Scandals involving immoral behavior hurt incumbents the most, while financial improprieties hurt them the least.

Another KEY quote from the paper is as follows:

For a scandal to have any impact on an election, potential voters have to know about it and care about it. The former is the job of the press. Voters rely on journalists to provide vital information about candidates, so that informed decisions can be made at the ballot box. Though the sources for that information are changing, the valuable role that the press plays in providing it is not (Graber 2009; Iyengar and McGrady 2006).

The study is also worth reading for the review of the literature on the subject.  It covers party switching, voter turnout, campaign finance violations, corruption charges, and partisan differences.

Conclusions about Political Scandal

Scandal

How much is a political scandal worth?

“The coefficients are basically the same. Incumbents committing financial improprieties suffered the smallest decline (4.3%), while those displaying behavior seen as immoral suffered the largest decline (6.5%). This leads one to conclude that voters do not necessarily care about the nature of the transgression, but only that a transgression has occurred.”

“While there was essentially no difference in the number of Democrats or Republicans involved in scandals, the results reveal that voters did punish Republicans slightly more than Democrats. The results also show that incumbents, regardless of party, suffered most from objectionable behavior related to matters of morality, such as sexual indiscretions. The vast majority of incumbents were inclined to seek reelection, even in a hostile environment, rather than abandon their Senate careers. The evidence proves that, in fact, two-thirds were victorious in November. So while scandals blunt the incumbency advantage, they do not eradicate it.”

Gotta love science.

My hypothesis is that candidates not having the advantage of incumbency suffer much greater.  

Simplicity

Simplicity

simplicity: Ozean Medias theme for political campaigns

Ozean Media’s theme for the year!

With apologies to Luke Sullivan & Thoreau, Ozean Media is stealing this as our theme for this year.

Always remembering Occam’s razor: when you have two correct answers that both solve problem, the more correct one is the simplest one!

We must keep in mind that political campaigns like advertising are emotional.  Every campaign can be reduced with great difficulty to one main emotion, capture it correctly and your political career can take off.

 

Digital Sabbatical: What I learned

Digital Sabbatical: What I learned

My digital sabbatical took place during the unnamed tropical storm this past weekend

My digital sabbatical took place during the unnamed tropical storm this past weekend

For the past 4 days, I have been on a self-imposed digital sabbatical.

I decided to go on this sabbatical after a difficult month and especially trying week.

I am still not completely sure of nor can I fully explain why I felt the need to totally disconnect.

However, I knew deep down that I was tired and needed to be still so that I could think.  I know I needed the pinging to stop.

For my sabbatical, I checked into a beach condo on Thursday with plans for my wife and kids to join me after Friday work.

Digital Sabbatical Rules

Here were my rules:

  • No smart-phone.
  • No E-mails.
  • No Phone calls (For emergencies, I gave my wife this number to this interesting invention I haven’t used in years….something called a land line).
  • No Web.
  • No Hulu, No Netflix.
  • No Web Surfing.
  • No Television.

I was NOT prepared for the difficulty that was involved with this sabbatical idea.

I checked into the Condo at about 10 am on Thursday and turned off my constant companion cell smartphone.  What have I done?  I thought about it, my cell phone hasn’t been turned off on purpose in years.

It took 5 minutes to move luggage into condo and look around.  It took another 3 minutes to feel the stress of my sabbatical decision.  No Email?  No Web?  Am I nuts?  What in the hell am I going to do now?

It started to rain.  I opened the door, listened to the surf, smelled the rain.  THAT was different.

I went to the grocery store to purchase supplies.  Wait a minute – no smart phone with a grocery list?  I had to go up and down the isles looking for things, and a funny thing happened:  I began to notice what fruit was fresh and smelled good versus what was on my list.  I noticed all the ingredients that I have never used in my cooking.  I read a label or 10.  Interesting.

I spent about 30 minutes more than I normally would in a grocery store just exploring.  I stopped and talked to the Veggie guy – what came in today?  I asked him if the automatic dispensing of artificial mist actually helped the veggies stay fresh or was it just for aesthetic reasons.  He didn’t know.  Interesting. I noticed the numerous Beach Bums with their tons of different accents and their too-leathery skin.  It was a strange collection of humans, some preparing to return North others complaining of the lack of sun.  All in all, an enjoyable trip to the grocery store that was…. fascinating.

Returned to the condo and unpacked.

NOW WHAT?

I started to do some work that I brought with me, but then I caught the pile of books I brought with me out of the corner of my eye.

In this pile, there was a book that I have been meaning to read for years, but just never found the motivation or the time.   I knew it was a classic, but I also knew it would be a slow slug.  I picked up my copy of  Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert Pirsig and dived in.

The book did not disappoint.  It was was a slow, deep, complex, slug-it-out kind of a read.  I haven’t experienced a book like it in years.  It took all my concentration, it took rereading passages,  it took time to close the book and consider what the author wrote.  Frankly, I am still processing some of what I read – this book is lingering in my head more than any book I have read in 20 years.  The book was a delightful challenge, and I never would or could have read it with constant background pinging.

I ran.  I ran in the rain and thought about what I was reading – thinking about Quality, my relationship with my children,  the difference between scientific reasoning and art, and various other, random, stream of consciousnesses thoughts.  In fact, I added 37 minutes to my normal running time without even noticing.  Didn’t care, but I noticed that I felt great.

Then it started.  The great unnamed tropical storm that hit Thursday evening, Friday morning.  The 10 inches of rain caused the Great Battle of 2013 versus the assorted evil roof leaks.  A small drip quickly escalated into an indoor rain.  The intense battle raged for hours.  Emptying buckets,   moving furniture, and moping were all instruments of my battle.  Trying to figure out where the leak was coming from and how to possibly stop the leak became my mission.  The battle raged until about 3 am.  Damndest thing: I found myself enjoying the ridiculousness of this experience: the wind was howling, it smelled different,  the waves raged and I just went with it.  In the end, I lost this battle.

My wife and family decided not to join me in the flooded condo, and I don’t blame them.  I did notice that I was stuck and couldn’t get out.   The road leading into the condo had funneled all the water into the exit road.  I found myself wondering how deep it was, so I waded into it as a funny thought came to me, “The water is about 18 inches deep and I am a 40 year old man playing in the rain.”

I found myself playing in the rain

I found myself playing in the rain

I read some more.  Two additional books: one the regulation of the Internet and another on the importance of focus in business.

As soon as the roads cleared Saturday morning, I returned home, and during the hour and half trip – silence.  No pings, no anxiety about the phone ringing, no news.  It was nice.

The digital sabbatical continued for another 48 hours, but the effects remained the same.

Sabbatical Conclusion

After my initial shock and bewilderment, my time was filled with different things that either I had forgotten how much I enjoyed or filled with new things that I had been meaning to try or get to.

In the end, I feel refreshed and a little bit more in control of the pings, the alerts, and the URGENT messages.

I would highly suggest that you try a digital sabbatical, and let me know how it goes.

How much is a scandal worth politically?

Does Social Media use indicate political behavior

It is science Friday (Wednesday edition), and I am off on an electronic sabbatical after a very difficult week.   Therefore, I am admitting right now that I am lazy and this may be the laziest post ever written for Science Friday, but that is still no excuse NOT to bring you a study in the field of politics.

I came across this post on twitter, and I thought it was PERFECT for Science Friday.

More Tweets, More Votes

Does social media tell us anything about voting behavior?

The working paper is entitled More Tweets, More Votes:  Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior.

Here is the abstract from the authors:

Is social media a valid indicator of political behavior? We answer this question using a random sample of 537,231,508 tweets from August 1 to November 1, 2010 and data from 406 competitive U.S. congressional elections provided by the Federal Election Commission. Our results show that the percentage of Republican-candidate name mentions correlates with the Republican vote margin in the subsequent election. This finding persists even when controlling for incumbency, district partisanship, media coverage of the race, time, and demographic variables such as the district’s racial and gender composition. With over 500 million active users in 2012, Twitter now represents a new frontier for the study of human behavior. This research provides a framework for incorporating this emerging medium into the computational social science toolkit.

DiGrazia, Joseph, McKelvey, Karissa, Bollen, Johan and Rojas, Fabio, More Tweets, More Votes: Social Media as a Quantitative Indicator of Political Behavior (February 21, 2013). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2235423 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2235423

[Just because I am lazy, does not mean I won’t cite the paper correctly.]

There is a robust conversation going on with one of the authors here.

 Conclusion

The most interesting thing from the working paper to me is the following:

First, the data do not include any information about the meaning or context of a name mention (e.g., “I love Nancy Pelosi” vs. “Nancy Pelosi should be impeached”). The relative share of attention compared to the opponent is all that is needed.

Meaning, if you are running for office and people aren’t talking about your positioning in relation to the other candidate(s), you have a problem.

Ozean Media: The agency political consultants call when they don’t understand digital

Ozean Media: The agency political consultants call when they don’t understand digital

It has been an interesting period since Ozean Media released our landmark Twitter study on the twitter usage by Florida’s elected officials.

I say interesting because of the calls we received since the release of the study.

These calls generally fall into two categories:

1)  Politicians who want to improve their social media outreach, but have political consultants who are not or can not help them with the project.When_do_You_Call_In_The_Expert

-or-

2)  Fellow Political Consultants calling under the guise of “Hey man, interesting research….I disagree with….” but then guiding the discussion to ask about improving their clients’ social media outreach.

Frankly, we were expecting calls from the press NOT calls from politicians or other political consultants.

I guess the number one thing we discuss during these calls is that a robust social media outreach is not easy, free, or able to be put in the hands of the intern.   Digital Media needs a spot at the table with its own goals, measurements, budget, and strategy.

On these calls, we talk about the different kinds of digital outreach: video, social, websites, micro-sites  photos, fundraising, email outreach, newsletters and how each one of these should match the politicians branding archetype.  We talk about conceptually how a social media program could be worked into a communications calendar.  We talk about data list building activities.  How these digital communications differ from communication channels they are more comfortable with.  For example, is a messaged photo on facebook the equivalent to digital direct mail?

At some point, in my excitement, I realize I have lost many of them.  They know in their gut they should be doing more digital, but I think they honestly had NO idea that a robust digital program would be so much work or this labor intensive.  I mean one should just be able to snap their fingers and create a web video that “will go viral”, RIGHT?

So in this discussion just about the time when all is lost, Ozean receives “Boy, Ozean really understands this stuff, thanks for the information.  Can I call you in the future?”

It has happened so much in the past months that I am considering re-positioning Ozean Media to:

Ozean Media:  The digital agency other political consultants and politicians call when they don’t understand digital.

What do you think?  Yeah you are right, needs to be shortened up a little.