I have been thinking a lot about thermostats and politics lately.
This thought pattern has been driven by two things:
I banned someone from my facebook page for the first time ever, and
Two separate books I have been reading discuss thermostats and politics.
The Facebook Ban
First, the facebook ban.
As you may know, I am a weekly guest on a local talk radio show. I discuss politics, political strategy, and the science behind politics. Over the past few months, I have ‘engaged’ in a ‘debate’ with a loyal listener.
I am all for free speech, debate, and the exchange of ideas. I enjoy it, I enjoy different perspectives, and I enjoy being challenged.
However, our ‘debate’ always seemed to denigrate with this listener to a bullying session rather than any attempt to learn from one another. The listener’s mind was made up, and if you didn’t 100% agree, began the attempt to beat you into submission with a volley of name calling, fallacies, and curated ‘proof’ from selected blogs.
The final straw was when the listener fabricated and attributed to me things I didn’t say in an attempt to make a point. Even when corrected, the listener wouldn’t stop. All of this being done mostly on my facebook timeline.
A fanatic is one who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject.
-Winston Churchill
Finally, I had enough of the nonsense, shrill rhetoric, and name calling. I banned the listener. It has been the most peaceful, glorious week.
Schelling’s book, Micromotives and Macrobehavior, explores the relationship between individual’s decisions and their individual characteristics (micromotives) and aggregated social patterns (macrobehavior), and how these two influence each other. Because as we know from our previous studies, our observance of how people act is a powerful force on how we act. Schelling writes of ‘contingent behavior—behavior that depends on what others are doing.’
Ideology in America’s “main theme of this book, that when it comes to policy preferences, there are more liberals than conservatives. On average about 50% more Americans choose the liberal response (or the liberal end of a continuum) than choose the conservative response. Given a choice between left and right options for government activity, left prevails on average. And this pattern is robust. It will not matter what assumptions we make or what operations we perform. The picture will always be the same.”
So, one book about economics, the other book about political ideology and the disconnect in people’s stated political ideology and their policy preferences at an operational level of government.
When two separate and non-connected books (one authored by a Nobel prize winner) mention the same thermostat framework, it is time to place close attention.
Thermostats and Politics
The basic premises of both books is explained in Schelling’s Micromotives and Macrobehavior :
“The thermostat is a model of many behavior systems—human, vegetable, and mechanical.” (Schnelling)
“If the system is up to the task of attaining the desired temperature, it generates a cyclical process. The temperature rises in the morning to the level for which the thermostat is set—and overshoots it. It always does. The temperature then falls back to the setting—and undershoots it. It rises again and overshoots it. The house never just warms up to the desired temperature and remains there.” (Schnelling)
“The thermostat is smart but not very smart…. If the system is “well behaved” the ups and downs will become smaller and eventually settle on a steady wave motion whose amplitude depends on the time lags in the system.” (Schnelling)
Political Ideology, when writing about the study’s methodology expands this framework specifically to politics:
“In Wlezien’s conception, public opinion is mainly relative – a matter of more or less rather than absolutes.” (Ellis & Stimson)
“Public Policy Mood moves in the direction opposite to control of the White House and does so quite systematically.” (Ellis & Stimson)
“It tends to reach high points in either the liberal or conservative directions in the years in which out parties regain control. And then it moves steadily away from the winning and controlling party.” (Ellis & Stimson)
“Group A is left of Party “L.” Group B has preferences between the two parties. And Group C is to the right of Party “R.” But since only Group B changes in response to party control, it forms the longitudinal signal for the entire electorate. Thus the whole electorate acts, on average, as if it were entirely composed of Group B.” (Ellis & Stimson)
“Our conclusion is simple. Our best single understanding of why public opinion moves is that based on basic thermostatic response. Much political commentary, failing to take this fact into account, ends up looking to mystical and exotic sources to explain the commonplace. And much of that commentary sees the changes of the moment as harbingers of a different future, when the political landscape will be fundamentally different from what it currently is. But we know that the changes of the moment will be reversed as quickly as they came, as the public reacts against the ideological direction of the party in power.” (Ellis & Stimson)
Conclusions
Believe it or not, today’s extreme rhetoric can be explained as “normal” and in fact, completely predictable and expected.
In my opinion, today’s rhetoric is in response to two major items:
the extreme nature of the recent financial meltdown, and
the extreme nature of the expansion of government with Obamacare.
If you consider our political system to be explained by a ‘thermostat model’, today’s extreme rhetoric is simply Group C reacting in an attempt to regulate the political system.
Take solace that “Group B” will win- in time, and the system will regulate once again back towards some sort of equilibrium.
The Nest thermostat pictured above has gained a toehold in the market because the current thermostats are inefficient – our old thermostats aren’t that smart.
What America needs politically is a Nest thermostat, but until that time calm down and relax. Unfortunately, today’s shrill politics is an overheating of the system, soon to self-regulate.
Besides my cynical problems with authority, I get a little flabbergasted when people take flippantly very complicated concepts, especially things we do as political consultants.
In an attempt to be more patient, please allow me explain myself.
The Science of Going Viral
Besides Gladwell’s The Tipping Point, there are two main books to look at when attempting to understand why and how things “go viral”:
Principle 1 – Simplicity – an idea stripped to its core.
Principle 2 – Unexpectedness – we must generate interest and curiosity
Principle 3 – Concreteness – sticky ideas are full of concrete images
Principle 4 – Credibility –
Principle 5 – Emotions – we must make them feel something
Principle 6 – Stories – we tell stories
If we look at Jonah’s 6 principles:
Principle 1 – Social Currency – How does it make one look to talk or share?
Principle 2 – Triggers – what trigger are we going to use?
Principle 3 – Emotion – some emotions increase sharing, others actually decrease it.
Principle 4 – Public – can we see others engaging in our desired behavior?
Principle 5 – Practical Value – How can we craft content that seems useful?
Principle 6 – Stories – What broader narrative can we wrap our idea in?
“There are six principles of contagiousness: products or ideas that contain Social Currency and are Triggered, Emotional, Public, Practically Valuable, and wrapped into Stories.” (Contagious, Berger)
So as we can see, there is a bit of actual science and heavy lifting that goes into creating a viral video. It is no flippant matter.
I would highly recommend reading all three books, but Heath sums up the main issue we have with politicians & their desire to “go viral.”
As Heath writes, “The most basic way to get someone’s attention is this: Break a pattern.”
According to Alex Patton’s Grand Unified Theory of Political Communication, in order to get a voters attention in this fragmented, cluttered world – we must be novel or shocking (break a pattern).
Immediately, we run into issues with a stereotypical politician’s request to “go viral” !
The Risk Tolerance of Politicians
If you have done any work with politicians, you will find the most risk adverse set of clients you will ever come across.
Let’s think back to our stereotype.
Do you think that guy’s natural inclination is to take wild risks and break patterns?
Getting a politician or candidate to agree to even explore the fundamental requirement of going viral is extremely difficult, at best.
Political Positive Deviance – Going Viral
Let’s search out some positive deviance to learn from specifically from the political world:
A Google search of “Political Viral Videos” is illuminating:
Why is is illuminating? In the top 2012 videos – not a single one of them was made deliberately by a politician. Yes, several of them star politicians, but none of them were designed or created by a politician. NOT ONE.
There are two three examples that I can recall off the top of my head of politicians purposefully creating ads that went viral. They also happen to be some of my favorite ads:
We are Better that that! – Dale Peterson
Demon Sheep Ad
We may even include a third:
Pigs – Ted Yoho
What do all of these have in common?
The candidates were desperate enough to take risks.
I’ve spoken with the gentleman that created the Demon Sheep ad, and they were desperate to change the conversation at the time of the ad.
Dale Peterson had little money, little name ID and was most likely going to get creamed. What did he have to lose?
Ted Yoho was running against a 27 year incumbent in a Congressional primary and did not nearly have the resources available to him. At the time of the ad, according to what polls you believe, he was down 5-9 points.
Again, ALL DESPERATE enough to take risks and break patterns.
Interestingly, when you study risk & human behavior, humans become MUCH less risk adverse when they “have nothing to lose.”
Conclusion
There is a point to this post.
In every case in which our firm has won national recognition, it was because a client was willing or desperate enough to take risks.
There is something about having your back to the wall.
The problem with risk? We may fail. And as we all know, when one fails on the Internet, one fails for all of mankind to witness and share.
So, before you flippantly request your political consultant to make you a digital media campaign that will go viral, you need to assess your tolerance for risk.
Because, the only way to make a video of your talking head tax presentation ‘go viral’ may be to loosen the screws in your chair so that it collapses ending in an uninterrupted stream of your cussing while a cat slinks by to close the video.
PS Finally, IF we are lucky enough to strike gold and have something go viral, we may want to discuss the value to your campaign of getting 100,000 karma on reddit and 1,000,000 you tube views comprising of people outside your voting district. (but that is another post)
During each odd number year, I set a goal to get better at my political science craft. Part of that goal is reading. Odd number year = take advantage of some down time = goal of 50 books related to political consulting. In 2013, I exceeded the goal by 5. #humblebrag
I believe the job of a political consultant is to study how people make decisions and then figure out how to affect the decision making process. This means our area for study is wide and vast.
In attempting to categorize the areas of concentration of my reading, I’ve come up with Behavior Decision Making, Cognitive Brain, Game Theory, Political Psychology, Advertising, Neuromarketing, Branding, Argumentation, and Philosophy.
I would say that this year’s main focus was on attempting to read more about how the brain works, makes decisions, and ways to potentially influence voters.
When people find out about my reading goal, I am often asked for recommendations.
Here you go:
Alex’s Fancy 2013 Top 10 12 Reading List for Political Consultants
(Note: The links provided are NOT affiliate links. They exist only for your convenience.)
Regardless of what the title says, this is not an introduction. There is math, lots of math, lots of advanced math. It is not for the faint of heart, and approximately 57% of the math went over my head. The part I did retain was fantastic.
A great anthology on political behavior, group relations, theoretical approaches, and change politics. I admit, I only skimmed the International Relations section.
I loved, loved, loved this book. In fact, I wrote an entire blog piece about it. Essentially this book tells us that in agreement with cognitive studies that issues mean little in the voters decision making process. Again, a novel methodology to studying the issue.
An absolute must read. This book takes a deep dive in Romney / Obama, separating the “political science truth” from the talk show pundits’ “truths”. If you are interested in the science of politics and what really happened in 2012, you should read this book.
If there was ever a book I read this year that made me read every single footnote, it was this one. This is fascinating stuff, but it also carries over into your clients’ request for “big data.”
While this book contains practical methods to critical thinking, the major revelation in this book is that our minds are liars. This book started my year long journey into biases, cognitive research and humility. If you consider yourself a true political analyst, you must do some meta-thinking about your biases and adopt some methodologies to counter them. If the smartest analysts in the world implement methodologies to attempt to minimize bias, political consultants should also.
While this book is additional reading into the two major systems of the brain and how our brains fool us, the book’s other key insight is the importance of metaphors. It uses the perfect metaphor for the two system brain: the rider and the elephant. This one metaphor wrapped up all the research and reading of cognitive biases into one simple to understand package; thus stressing the need for metaphors. Eureka moment! It has the added bonus of adding to our understanding of human nature and the concept of happiness.
This was the one book that allowed me to pull together “Alex Patton’s grand unified theory of political communication.” I had just completed reading the book and was ruminating on it while doing a 50 mile bike ride. Then came the Eureka moment, the proverbial lightning strike. I had to stop my bike and find my phone voice recorder as soon as possible. Yes, it was that dramatic. The book is dry and academic, but for me it was the most important book I read this year.
This book significantly changed the way I think about and make sense of the world. It is a discussion of how highly improbable events have massive influence on our lives. Once you read this, you can no longer give ‘guarantees’ and you become aware of the fact that “you don’t know what you don’t know.”
What does screenwriting have to do with politics? EVERYTHING. Political Consultants are story tellers, and there is no better book on the structure of stories and how to tell better ones. Looking how to construct a hero narrative? Look no further, read this.
Read this in college, and Zaller’s four axioms have stayed with me ever since. I normally re-read this every other off year for a refresher.
Final Words
Noting that political consulting has few professional credentials other than reputation, it is imperative that we take ownership of improving our craft. If you are still relying on decades of accumulated rules of thumb, I think you should make a change in your behavior.
Our minds are tricky little devils, and we owe it to our clients to get better.
Happy New year, and I hope the cycle is prosperous for you and your family.
The handbook was originally published in 2000, and I was enthralled with the document. After all, in a sense, political consultants are producers of Intelligence. It just happens to be political consultants trade in mostly open-source intelligence.
At first, I felt I was being respectfully subservient. I was going to go behind the door and learn the secrets to being a great CIA analyst.
However, as I read the document, it became apparent that what I had stumbled upon was the government’s version of Strunk & White.
It is a good read, but you will learn no secrets, only helpful hints such as:
The importance of a title
How to gist your reading (actually a very helpful section)
The need for focus and clarity
“If you can’t summarize your bottom line in one sentence, you haven’t done your analysis.”
One idea – One Paragraph
The inverted Pyramid writing style, i.e. begin with the core assumption.
The importance of precise language (no jargon, no abbreviations, allow no possible misunderstandings)
Again, there is nothing earth shattering, but it is an interesting read.
Developing Analytical Objectivity
The part that I found most interesting is the section entitled “Developing Analytical Objectivity.”
In a world filled with talk radio and infotainment, it is an important point to raise awareness about.
We have talked extensively about the cognitive nature of our brains and some of the fallacies and tricks our brains play on us – especially in the political arena.
This warning given to some of our country’s brightest thinkers acts as a reminder that if the smartest person in the room must protect against biases, so must we.
While there are no state secrets in the document, we all can use a refresher on how to write and think more clearly. I strongly urge you take a quick read.
Announcing the opening of Ozean’s central repository & political library
We have heard your request, and we are making some small changes to our website.
As you may know, we love the science of politics. We are true political nerds, and we embrace that aspect of our personalities.
Many of our blog posts are driven by what political studies, political research, or political books we are currently reading. Some are even driven by Ozean Media’s original research.
Over the past year, we have been asked repeatedly to create a central library of our research.
You asked for one place for all political research, and we listened.
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