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Ranked Choice Voting – Round 1

Ranked Choice Voting – Round 1

by | Jun 23, 2021 | Political Research

Round 1 – Ice Cream

And the winner is……

Nobody.  yet.

If you are flow charting out the tabulation, here are the easy as 1-2-3 steps:

  • Step 1 – is someone over 50%+1 (Y – declare winner, N – goto Step 2)
  • Step 2 – eliminate the lowest vote getter and reassign votes.  Easy, right?
  • Step 3 – goto Step 1.  Easy, Right?

Step 2 is causing me some heartburn, because we immediately begin to run into issues / challenges.

The lead vote getter is Mint Chocolate Chip with 21% of the vote.

It would appear we should eliminate “Neapolitan”, but that would be incorrect. Neapolitan has three round 1 votes.

We first must deal with write ins, because some of them receive less than 3 votes.

The verbatim write ins are as follows:

We now have to decide on a classification for write ins.  Is Chocolate peanut butter the same as Chocolate/Peanut Butter?  Is it the same as Peanut butter cup?

We have to be extremely careful here for a couple of reasons, hypothetically “M. Mouse” as a write-in could mean “Mickey Mouse” or “Minnie Mouse”.   We shouldn’t be in the business of guessing or interpreting voter intent.

The next issue is what order, if tied, do we eliminate ballots and re-allocate votes.  This matters in the situation where the first place vote getter is one or two short of achieving victory.  It would also matter if the reallocation caused a selection to be eliminated in the following round or surviving another round.  Yes, the odds of these situations are small – but they do exist, and we need to consider this.  In addition, you have to make these decision when coding.

In what order do we eliminate tied lower tier ballots?  Do I eliminate “Coffee” or “Peach” first? What reasoning do i code-in?

In this case, we have the following write ins with 1 vote:

  • Tiger tail
  • Pralines ‘n Cream
  • Coffee
  • Peach
  • Strawberry cheesecake
  • Black raspberry
  • Spumoni
  • Raspberry
  • New York Super Fudge Chunk
  • Chocolate/Peanut butter
  • Peanut butter chocolate

We have 2 votes for “Peanut Butter Cup”

We have 3 votes for “Chocolate peanut butter”

So, these are the coding decisions I am making:

I will ignore capitalization, but will not ignore spelling when classifying write ins.  If a voter misspells a write in, then so be it.  I am sure each state will have different rules if they enact RCV as to write ins (see Alaska and Murkowski write in election as an example of rules regarding write ins). I simply can’t interpret voting intent and need to take the write in as presented.

I will alphabetize … no…. changed my mind ….. I will randomize the tied ballots to determine the order they are eliminated and second choice reallocated.

I created a random number generated and sorted low to high and I will eliminate the write ins in the following order:

  • Peach
  • Tiger tail
  • New York Super Fudge Chunk
  • Spumoni
  • Chocolate/Peanut butter
  • Pralines ‘n Cream
  • Black raspberry
  • Strawberry cheesecake
  • Raspberry
  • Coffee
  • Peanut butter chocolate

I stress this is a decision that I made.  I don’t know if it is the “correct” way to do this, and that could be a potential issue.  I am not sure enacting legislation considers this or is specific.

Again, the chances the order that I eliminated and re-allocate write ins will have a material effect on the eventual outcome is small – HOWEVER, if it were the decision I just made as a coder would be an issue.  I will need to talk to an RCV expert to explore this further.

WRITE INS FLOW

Round 1 Round 2
Peach Mint Chocolate Chip
Tiger tail Mint Chocolate Chip
New York Super Fudge Chunk New York Super Fudge Chunk**
Spumoni Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough
Chocolate/Peanut butter Rocky Road
Pralines ‘n Cream Butter Pecan
Black raspberry Mint Chocolate Chip
Strawberry cheesecake Butter Pecan
Raspberry Butter Pecan
Coffee Mint Chocolate Chip
Peanut butter chocolate Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough

We immediately experience an additional issue.  The rules require that one does not vote any one choice more than once, and if one does – the ballot becomes “spoiled”.  Our voter with his love for “New York Super Fudge Chunk” is proving to be an issue.  An additional question, is the entire ballot spoiled?  Say for example, “NYSFC” voter in round three voted for Vanilla.  Do we count round 3 or is the entire ballot spoiled for all future rounds?  If we immediately spoil the entire ballot are we disinfranchising the voter for additional rounds?

I think for our excercise, I am going to make the decision that if a voter doesn’t follow directions and votes for one choice more than once – the ballot becomes spoiled for future rounds.  Sorry, NYSFC – your strident love for “New York Super Fudge Chunk” has invalidated your ballot because we are a strict father. 

So, to recap – we aren’t even out of the write-ins, and we have three major coding / tabulation issues:

  • write in classification
  • order of elimination for ties
  • spoiled ballots

I am going to need another cup of coffee.

Round 1 Results (combination elimination of write ins)

So, after dealing with the write-ins, Mint-Chocolate Chip has increased its lead, and we start again. Thankfully, it’s not close enough to get sued…..yet.

 

 

 

Conclusion

As we observed in the previous post, it is the accumulation of small errors that could lead to a catastrophic failure.

So far we have seen possible issues with:

  • Ballot presentation
  • Allowing or not allowing voter error
  • write in issues (classification)
  • order of elimination of lowest tiers
  • spoiled ballots – when in the process?

Yes, agreed, the chances are small – BUT – if some error were to cast doubt on the tabulations, it would be terrible for confidence in the process. 

Ranked Choice Voting – an adventure

Ranked Choice Voting – an adventure

by | Jun 21, 2021 | Political Research

Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) and Ice Cream

With the pending Democrat primary race for Mayor in NYC using Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), we are thinking through the process of how to properly poll Rank Choice Voting and how to write the back-end code to do the analysis.

What I thought would be a weekend in project has turning into a completely different beast.  If you ever want to move from theory to execution of something – write code for it.  Writing code forces you to explore the details and try to attempt to anticipate errors etc.

In these blogs posts, I will not attempt to give a primer on Ranked Choice Voting.  Others have done that well:

Bias Alert –  you should know that I am not sold on RCV as a method of voting in the United States because it adds layers of complexity to a system – counting votes –  that we are currently struggling with in the United States.   As we will soon discover, each detail / decision is a thread for someone to pull on that could further cast doubt on our voting systems.

What I will attempt to do is walk through our fake data set and explain our logic on polling / coding and address various decision making.  I will highlight issues that I see as potential problems in polling / casting votes.

In our exercise, we were going to ask people to “rank choice vote” flavors of ice cream.  What could possibly go wrong???

ISSUE #1 – Presentation of Ballot

As a rule when polling, you want the poll to resemble the actual voting process as much as possible.

Even before collecting data, we were presented with a couple of issues / deicision points:

  • Presentation of Ballot – method
  • Allowing errors or not

As one of the people who took the poll pointed out, there are multiple ways of actually presenting the ballot – and it appears New York City is using two different methods.

There is an array and a multi-screen approach.  NYC’s sample ballot shows an array and online NYC demonstrates RCV on something called an ‘AutoMark Ballot Marking Device’ uses the multi-screen approach (https://www.vote.nyc/page/ranked-choice-voting).

NYC Ballot - array

NYC Sample Ballot

MYC Automark Ballot

 NYC isn’t clear on what method is used when, and finding out the details was outside the scope of my weekend project. 

While our online software has the ability to do either type of question, I decided for this exercise to use the multi-screen approach.  Why, to allow for error….

ISSUE #2 – Error Handling

As another reader pointed out, it would have been helpful, if we would have removed their previous choices from screens.  Example, if they picked Vanilla, it should be removed from future choices.  It would NOT have been difficult to do; however…..

It doesn’t appear that is what is being done in NYC on the printed ballot or the multi-screen approach.   It appears that errors are allowed (butterfly ballot anyone).  I would need to speak to an electronic voting machine expert to explore IF machines allow a voter to error or not, but with paper ballots we can’t code out human error. 

Therefore, when programming the survey, we “errored” on allowing the voter to “error” – even though the “rules” clearly state if you vote twice for something your vote will be “spoiled” (We will have much more on that later). 

ISSUE #3 – Instructions

As a “voter” / “survey respondent” pointed out – we had a problem with definitions / unclear instructions.  The instructions were to “Rank Choice Vote” for ice cream flavors.  We did this purposefully to mimic the ballot instructions. 

Some people were confused asking should I vote for “my favorite” or “my least favorite”, requesting more descriptive instructions.   I assume this confusion would exist on any ballot. 

In addition, it appears many “voters”  “survey respondents” didn’t realize there was a space on each choice for a “write in.” 

Conclusion

Even before data collection or simulated voting – we made two decisions (ballot presentation and error handling) that could potentially have a material effect(s) on the results, and we haven’t even started coding results yet.

The challenge with this when you study system failures of any kind, it is not normally one huge error that causes failure, it is an accumulation and compounding of smaller errors. 

But for now with those decisions made, we collect data….

So, You Want to Run As an Independent or Third-Party Candidate?

So, You Want to Run As an Independent or Third-Party Candidate?

by | Apr 19, 2021 | Political Consulting

So, you want to run as a third party or independent?

Best of Luck!

For whatever reason, one of the most read blog posts on this website is an explanation of why third parties don’t win. 

Long story short – the deck is completely stacked against them.

But like any good critical thinker, we may want to reframe the question and ask: “Under what conditions DO third party or independent candidates win?”

Because we all know, while rare, third party or independent candidates do win.

      • They tend to come with established high, hard name-id. Normally originating outside politics.   Say maybe pro-wrestling, business, and / or athletics.
      • They tend to be wealthy. As discussed, ideological donors are typically highly partisan.  Institutional donors are odds players.  Typically, independent or third party candidates need sustainable seed money to get the campaign off the ground.
      • They tend to be lucky…I mean …. They tend to be at the right place at the right time. If you look closely, independents win when one of the major party candidates is fatally flawed – either entering the campaign or during the campaign.
      • They tend to be running for lower offices. Currently, there are major party apparatuses established for Senate, House, Governors, Attorneys General level campaigns.

Conclusion

We try not to think in binary terms (win / lose) – because as soon as you say “So-and-so can’t win!”, you end up embarrassed.  Rather, we try and think in probabilistic terms.

After all, any given hand can win at any time, but skill and politics wins in the long run – unless you are really unlucky.

Even if the above conditions 1-4 are met, it remains highly unlikely a third party or independent candidate wins – especially in these highly polarized political times.  There is nothing binding the Independent “tribe” together other than rejection of both parties and all the other candidates.

Science Friday: Inoculation Theory or How to Protect Yourself From Political Attack

Science Friday: Inoculation Theory or How to Protect Yourself From Political Attack

by | Apr 2, 2021 | Political Research

Inoculation Theory

In the early 1960, William McGuire began to build the theory of inoculation in and around communication and persuasion.

The theory has since been studied extensively with nuances offered (a large debt to Michael Pfau).

The communication theory uses a metaphor from biology that is especially relevant with COVID as the topic of the day. 

A person or entity can expose individuals to a weakened argument (line of attack) and by doing so can “inoculate” the individuals exposed to future, potentially more robust attacks.

The theory is not without detractors, and some researchers have dismissed the theory all together.

However, research continues and the field, like all social science, continues to develop.

In the political context, we often come across the theory when dealing with negative information we have found out about our own client and are wrestling with how to deal with a potential line(s) of attack.

A Brief Note About Negative Campaigning

It works.

A Brief Note About Opposition Research

It will be found.

Inoculation in a Political Context

We have established that negative campaigning works and that a good opposition research investigation will uncover your deep secrets.  If they aren’t uncovered by a researcher, your secrets will be likely hand-delivered by a jilted ex or an upset past acquaintance that does not share your politics.  (Trust me on all of this).

We have learned from experience, you must “hang a lantern” on your issues and by doing so inoculate yourself.

Inoculation in Politics

The theory works like this, I hang a lantern on my problem and I attack my own campaign.  In this case, I am open about my problem, but most importantly I tell you!

Critical to this is the individual must perceive a threat.

How do we do this?

“My opponent is going to attack me (or our campaign, our movement) by saying…..”

I then work to pre-empt their argument or refute it.  I simply give the audience the ammunition to refute and / or build additional refutations.

By doing so I am weakening the “shock” and the effectiveness, but more importantly I am inviting you to generate counter arguments or I am providing you the counter arguments.

This is extremely effective when the attack is likely to come from the other party in the hyper-polarized times.  Why?  The threat appears greater and often the audience is then more motivated to generate counter arguments.

Research On Inoculation

I am going to point you to two studies.

The first is one of my go to research tactics – look for a meta study on your topic.  Meta-studies are fantastic – they are a review and summation of available research on a topic.  If you can find a good, recent one, you’ll save a lot of time AND have a fantastic reference sheet for further study.

In this case, we have a meta-analysis done by Banas & Rains in 2010.  It offers a much better in-depth coverage of the nuance in the field than I can offer in this post.

It concludes while there is counter-findings in the field, a review of the available research finds “inoculation treatments are more effective than no-treatment controls or supportive treatments in fostering resistance to attitude change. “

Read Meta Study on Inoculation

The second study is an older study (1990), but I include it because it is specific towards campaigns.

Michael Pfau, et al look at inoculations via direct mail in the 1988 presidential campaign. Dukakis v GH Bush. In my kind of experiment (and to be fair), the researchers attacked both candidates. The Bush messages attacked Dukakis for being weak on crime, and the Dukakis messages attacked Bush for support of agriculture policies and policies that hurt rural America. (A criticism is these lines of attack appear almost cute or quaint in the current times, but that is an issue for another day.  Another criticism is the study is a relative low sample study and likely due for a replication study using a larger sample.)

In short, they find inoculation to outperform post-hoc refutation – and the experiment was conducted via direct mail. This finding was robust among strong party identifiers.

Read Inoculation Study - Direct Mail

Conclusion

If your candidate has a problem, assume it will be found out and assume some nasty political consultant is going to create a nasty, effective ad. You now have two choices – stick your head in the sand or be proactive and remove the wind from your opponents sails – inoculate your supporters so that they can be enlisted in refuting the attacks. Inoculation – a better plan, backed by research.
How Do Non-partisan Elections Remove Partisanship? hint: They do NOT!

How Do Non-partisan Elections Remove Partisanship? hint: They do NOT!

by | Mar 29, 2021 | Political Research

We have previously explored the hyper-partisanship and polarization that exists in America.

A past client of mine disagreed with my bleak assessment and said reform is “easy” – just make all races non-partisan and THEN the campaigns will be about character and not politics. 

I am known for my candor, and how that has gotten me into trouble in the past.  I have been making an effort – a true effort – in selecting my words more carefully.  Instead of saying “You could not be more wrong!” I found myself saying “Well, let’s see if we can find any research that agrees with your position….” 

 

DOWNLOAD research

 We are fully aware that party identification is the leading factor in voting – said another way – “Republicans tend to vote for Republicans and Democrats tend to vote for Democrats”.

In voting behavior, most don’t need to know details other than party to vote the “right way”.  If we both identify as a member of the same party, we are very likely to share values and I don’t need to know much more than the party of a candidate in a general election to “vote correctly.”

So, the conventional wisdom – if we REMOVE the party especially from the ballot by making all elections non-partisan, it will force candidates and voters to go deeper.  The short cut is removed…..so simple, right?

Not so fast my friend!  Chris W. Bonneau, University of Pittsburg, and Damon M. Cann of Utah State explored the non-partisan elections of judicial candidates.

I believe this is a brilliant way to approach this subject.  The state bar associations take many extra steps in a futile attempt to remove “politics” from a political process.  In addition, judicial elections are … lower intensity races (said another way – kinda boring) with lower spending and lower voter engagement.

PERFECT for exploring the strength of party ID on nonpartisan races.

In short, what they found is there is no shortage of cues or shortcuts available to interject partisanship into a campaign.  In fact “voters are able to identify the partisan identification of candidates from ideological and issue based cues even when candidates’ explicit partisanship is omitted from the ballot.”

In fact, the results show it is kinda easy.

In a sense, they conclude “nonpartisan elections ineffective at removing the partisan element from elections.”

We observe the exact same thing in municipal races we have worked in and or polled.  Whether it is the local party interjecting to activate party ID or outside groups endorsing to activate party ID – there are NO shortages of signals and for the most part – the numbers don’t lie.

CONCLUSION

Sorry to be the popper of bubbles – but the proposed reform of nonpartisan elections being a solution is not backed by research.  In fact it is explicitly dis-proven. 

Sadly, in America, for the most part there is no such thing as a nonpartisan election – especially if one party has an incentive to interject partisan cues.