As you know, Congress passed H.R.1 – One Big Beautiful Bill Act and it was signed into law by the President on 07/04/2025.
While people are still trying to figure out what is in it (The pdf of the bill is 870 pages), but it is widely reported:
- The law added additional restrictions to Medicaid, the healthcare programme relied upon by millions of disabled and low-income Americans.
- In addition, over the past decade, the number of veterans has declined, but the percent of veterans with Medicaid has increased.
- The law changes the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Snap), which is used by over 40 million low-income Americans. The Senate bill requires states to contribute more to the programme, which is currently fully funded by the federal government. The change would start in 2028.
All of this got me curious about these programs in Florida and HR1’s potential effects in Florida, and I got inspired to practice some coding in R.
These are the results:
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Observations
It is inaccurate to say H.R. 1 will affect all beneficiaries, but the potential for significant harm is real.
- Districts ranking high in Medicaid enrollment face outsized impact. A 15% reduction in enrollment in a district with 200,000 enrollees could mean 30,000 residents losing coverage.
- Dual-eligible SNAP & Medicare recipients risk having both benefits affected—lost SNAP eligibility can drive health deterioration and raise Medicare costs.
- SNAP-heavy districts will bear benefit cuts and administrative delays—hence income instability for vulnerable households.
H.R. 1 does not uniformly affect all covered programs, but districts with high concentrations of Medicaid and SNAP beneficiaries face serious risks. CBO estimates suggest 7.8 million people could lose Medicaid by 2034, and SNAP cuts total nearly $200 billion. Provisions like work requirements, cost-sharing, and eligibility checks will likely remove thousands per district from coverage. In districts with many dual-eligibles, SNAP cuts may amplify health risks.
Bottom line: Floridians will feel the pain. The only question is when & how much? We do know it wont be until after the midterms.
PS. If you are interested in the R code for verification, feel free to email me and request.
Methodology
This analysis estimates SNAP and public health insurance enrollment at the Florida congressional district level using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018-2022 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates.
Data for SNAP households (Table S2201), average household size (Table B25010), and persons covered by Medicaid, Medicare, and VA health care (Table S2704) were acquired at the census tract level. A representative point for each tract was spatially joined to its corresponding congressional district. The tract-level data was then aggregated to produce a total for each of the 28 districts.
*SNAP recipients were estimated by multiplying the number of SNAP households by the average household size within each tract before summing to the district level.
Variable Description & Data Sources
Congressional District
- Explanation: The official descriptive name for the congressional district (e.g., “Congressional District 3”).
- Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line Shapefiles, accessed via the tigris R package.
District_n
- Explanation: A simplified version of the Congressional District name (e.g., “3” instead of “Congressional District 3”), created to make the axis labels on the plots neater and easier to read.
- Data Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line Shapefiles.
Incumbent
- Explanation: Party that currently holds office in district.
- Data Source: House.gov
HR1_vote
- Explanation: Vote cast by Incumbent Member
- Data Source: Clerk of the House
SNAP HH
- Explanation: The total count of households that receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits within that district.
- Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Table S2201 (FOOD STAMPS/SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM (SNAP)).
Estimated SNAP Recipients
- Explanation: An estimate of the total number of individual people receiving SNAP. It’s calculated by multiplying the number of SNAP households in each census tract by that specific tract’s average household size, and then summing those results for the entire district.
- Data Source: This is a derived value calculated using two tables:
- SNAP Households from ACS Table S2201.
- Average Household Size from ACS Table B25010 (AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE OF OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS BY TENURE).
Medicare Coverage Alone (Persons)
- Explanation: The total count of individual people whose only form of health insurance is Medicare.
- Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Table S2704 (PUBLIC HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE BY TYPE AND SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS).
Medicaid Coverage (Persons)
- Explanation: The total count of individual people who have Medicaid coverage. This is a broad measure that includes people who have Medicaid as their only insurance as well as those who have it in combination with another type (like being “dual-eligible” for both Medicare and Medicaid).
- Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Table S2704 (PUBLIC HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE BY TYPE AND SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS).
VA Coverage Alone (Persons)
- Explanation: The total count of individual people whose only form of health insurance is from the VA (Veterans Health Administration).
- Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Table S2704 (PUBLIC HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE BY TYPE AND SELECTED CHARACTERISTICS).