complexity

I am not an alarmist, nor would I be considered a chicken little.  In fact, I tend to think systems self-regulate and maintain an equilibrium. However, for the first time, I am starting to ponder is America’s current two party system heading towards collapse? Complexity Over the weekend, I made the mistake of peering down the rabbit hole of the study of complexity and complex systems. My over-simplified definition of a complex system?  A complex systems is [...]

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There is a difference between descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.  There is also a difference between the following two questions: What are my chances of challenging an incumbent? and If I decide to challenge an incumbent, what do I need to do to be successful? Today, we explore second question. If I decide to challenge an incumbent, what do I need to do to be successful? People are upset and anxious and with these feelings comes [...]

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The US Constitution and Certainty

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Happy Constitution Day! (I know, I’m a day late, but I’ve been busy) So yesterday was ‘Constitution Day’ or the day commemorating the signing of the U.S. Constitution by thirty-nine brave men on September 17, 1787. A day among my conservative friends that appears to be destined to be our own little Kwanzaa in the making. Of course, this day of celebration lead to an intense political discussion with a friend. This intense discussion disintegrated when [...]

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Guest Lecturer of the Year

During each odd number year, I set a goal to get better at my political science craft.  Part of that goal is reading.  Odd number year = take advantage of some down time = goal of 50 books related to political consulting.  In 2013, I exceeded the goal by 5. #humblebrag I believe the job of a political consultant is to study how people make decisions and then figure out how to affect the decision [...]

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I am a sinner, a practicing Catholic (because I have not perfected it in any way, shape or form), and I think Rush Limbaugh is wrong about the Pope. In fact, Rush Limbaugh is so wrong in relation to what he said about the Pope’s words, he should apologize. Background It is always dangerous to discuss politics, let alone religion in such classy company; however, when one combines the two, one can get in real [...]

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CIA_seal

  Analytical Thinking & Presentation for Intelligence Producers Over the Thanksgiving weekend, during a Tofurkey induced political-nerd Internet session, I came across a copy of the CIA’s Training Manual & Handbook written for their analysts entitled: Analytic Thinking & Presentation for Intelligence Producers.  Analysis Training Handbook.     The handbook was originally published in 2000, and I was enthralled with the document.  After all, in a sense, political consultants are producers of Intelligence.  It just happens [...]

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Harry Reid and the Nuclear Option

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I got myself into a little trouble yesterday with some comments on Senator Harry Reid’s redefining of the cloture rule so that a mere majority of the Senators present is needed to limit and debate and move on, the so-called “nuclear option.” I hate that he did it, and I think my Democratic friends will rue the day they did it, when they return to the minority shortly. For me it was a case of [...]

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Guest Lecturer of the Year

It was my absolute pleasure to be a guest lecturer at the University of Florida’s graduate political science program. I was extremely impressed with the engagement and intellect of the students. My only concern is 90% of the students in the graduate program self identified as Democrats. Come on fellow Republicans, don’t fear SPSS. We need you! As you can from the photo above, I was aiming for Guest Lecturer of the Year! Knowing my [...]

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