how did donald Trump become President Trump?   DATA explaining Trump's win Most got it wrong; I did. The data is now starting to arrive and serious people are now beginning to explore the data in an attempt to understand how President Trump came to win. We will attempt to avoid the pieces that attempt to drive a narrative and stick to data points. The Definitive Guide to 2016 (so far):   RealClearPolitics: How Trump […]

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Why the Freedom Caucus Doesn’t Fear Trump

Got a quick question on the Ward Scott Files today, “What effect will Trump’s threats against the Freedom Caucus have?” Short answer: Not much. Took a quick look (excuse the non-sexy graph) at how members of the freedom caucus performed against Trump, Romney and McCain in their districts. On average, the 30 members identified as members out-performed Trump by 5.4%.  If we throw out the outliers, it is more.  (I don’t have the time nor […]

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Gainesville Votes! and its ramifications

Gainesville Votes! is an organization that is proposing “following the model successfully used by the Alachua County School Board: Non-partisan elections occurring in August (alongside county, state and federal primaries) of every even year. When a run-off is necessary, it would be held on the first Tuesday in November along with county, state and federal elections.”  Harvey Ward. This is being proposed in the vein of promoting higher turnout in Gainesville City Elections. This goal and […]

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Quick Reaction: The Hidden Lesson from the GOP Debate for Candidates

The morning after the GOP Debate, the Washington Post has an article “Marco Rubio had a rough night on Google“. It is an interesting story, but I think it misses the MOST important story from any candidates’ point of view. If you look at the Google search peaks, BOTH peaks were when candidates related a personal story to the current political context. THAT’s the ‘story’, if you are candidate.  THAT’s the takeaway if you are […]

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How productive is Congress?

Over the Thanksgiving break, I figured NOTHING could be any more frustrating than watching my Gators, so I decided to begin to tackle learning R. Part of teaching myself R is playing around with an interesting data set – Congressional Bills.  “This public resource provides information about more than 400,000 bills introduced in the U.S. Congress, currently 1947-2008, along with extensive information about each bill’s progress and sponsor.” I just started with a simple question, […]

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GOP Presidential Nomination Process

The GOP nomination process is one governed by the RNC and individual states…..and people in funny hats. Through this primary process, candidates are awarded delegates by a complex, state-by-state maze. There are 2,470 delegates in total, meaning the first candidate to win 1,236 delegates will win the GOP nomination.  Easy, right? Just wait, it’s a lot more complicated. State GOP Delegates The RNC awards states delegates according to the following rules: For jurisdictions (states) with […]

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Time for Change Model (Implications for local politics)

This week Politico featured an article The End of the 2016 Election Is Closer Than You Think    The Politico article is a fantastic read, but doesn’t go into the particulars that I would like to explore. Yes, the Politico article in someways scooped a theme I have been working on for sometime on this blog.  In the past I have been exploring the formation of political environments and asking “Do Campaigns Really Matter?” Topic 1: […]

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The Effort Required to Have an Opinion

I’ve been thinking about the amount of effort required to have an opinion. What drove this strain of thought: I was having a conversation with a subject matter expert and I voiced my opinion. He replied, “That is certainly an opinion, but to have an accurate opinion, you need to do a lot more work.” How true. The amount of effort to have an opinion is zero.  My 11 year old son will have an opinion about anything […]

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2014 Florida Competitive House Seats

In 2014, all 120 members of the Florida State House of Representatives stood for election. Of the 120, 47 seats were uncontested or decided with a primary race only. Of the 73 general elections held, 13 had the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate with 10% of each other in total votes for the general election. *Data is at bottom of post

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