pareto - effort

I’ve been thinking about the amount of effort required to have an opinion. What drove this strain of thought: I was having a conversation with a subject matter expert and I voiced my opinion. He replied, “That is certainly an opinion, but to have an accurate opinion, you need to do a lot more work.” How true. The amount of effort to have an opinion is zero.  My 11 year old son will have an opinion about anything [...]

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just-facts

In 2014, all 120 members of the Florida State House of Representatives stood for election. Of the 120, 47 seats were uncontested or decided with a primary race only. Of the 73 general elections held, 13 had the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate with 10% of each other in total votes for the general election. *Data is at bottom of post

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deviate

I anticipate some blow-back on this blog post, but “since my intent is to write something useful to whoever understands it, it has appeared to me more fitting to go directly to the effectual truth of the thing than to the imagination of it” (Machiavelli 61). In a previous post, we dared to ponder the question, “Do political campaigns really matter?”  We looked at the curious case in Alachua County where two Republican campaigns were [...]

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campaigns_matter

Why in the world would a campaign consultant ask the seemingly heretical question, “Do political campaigns really matter?” The answer: partially purposefully provocative combined with another part intellectual curiosity, but as we prepare to spend billions of dollars to elect our next President, we should explore the question. The Interesting & Peculiar Case of Alachua County As a political operative in a Democratic dominated area, I’ve run multiple campaigns in this Democratic stronghold of a county.  I have [...]

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doh

First time candidates make mistakes, and it is because we expect them that we can take steps to minimize them. Over the past 20 plus years, I have observed first candidates making mistakes early in the process and during a campaign. This quick guide is an attempt to help first time political candidates avoid the most common campaigning mistakes, and it may act as a refresher for more experienced candidates. PRE-CAMPAIGN LAUNCH MISTAKES Not Doing Correct Research [...]

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download

As any political consultant will tell you, “It’s difficult to get a ballot initiative passed, but fairly easy to defeat one – all you have to do is create enough doubt.” We see that old adage at play with the current “debate” playing itself out in the Gainesville Sun editorial pages. We have been treated to no less than 7 Guest Columns on GRU and or Representative Keith Perry’s bill: Thomas Hawkins: The wrong plan [...]

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complexity

I am not an alarmist, nor would I be considered a chicken little.  In fact, I tend to think systems self-regulate and maintain an equilibrium. However, for the first time, I am starting to ponder is America’s current two party system heading towards collapse? Complexity Over the weekend, I made the mistake of peering down the rabbit hole of the study of complexity and complex systems. My over-simplified definition of a complex system?  A complex systems is [...]

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keep-calm-and-vote-out-every-incumbent

There is a difference between descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.  There is also a difference between the following two questions: What are my chances of challenging an incumbent? and If I decide to challenge an incumbent, what do I need to do to be successful? Today, we explore second question. If I decide to challenge an incumbent, what do I need to do to be successful? People are upset and anxious and with these feelings comes [...]

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The US Constitution and Certainty

John_Adams_Thomas_Jefferson

Happy Constitution Day! (I know, I’m a day late, but I’ve been busy) So yesterday was ‘Constitution Day’ or the day commemorating the signing of the U.S. Constitution by thirty-nine brave men on September 17, 1787. A day among my conservative friends that appears to be destined to be our own little Kwanzaa in the making. Of course, this day of celebration lead to an intense political discussion with a friend. This intense discussion disintegrated when [...]

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