BUMPS IN POLLS Go back to address Jennifer’s question on what causes bumps in polls. A paper out of Columbia and Stanford that I came across. The people choosing to opt into a poll increases with enthusiasm from those supporting a candidate. “It seems implausible that many voters will switch support from one party to the other because of minor campaign events.1 “ “Or, alternatively, the surveys taken before and after the debate were capturing […]

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Ward Scott Files – shownotes – 5/19/2015

Jacksonville Mayor Race – election today Too close to call. Illustrates importance of Florida – national players PPP Poll PPP’s national Republican poll for May continues to find Scott Walker leading the field, but it’s tightly clustered and his support has actually dropped two consecutive surveys now. Walker’s at 18% to 13% for Marco Rubio, 12% each for Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Ted Cruz, 9% for Rand Paul, […]

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Ward Scott Files – Show Notes 5/12/2015

Alex Patton is a weekly guest on the Ward Scott Files for “Political Nerd Tuesday” : a weekly exploration of all things related to political strategy, political polling, and political research. Below are the show notes prepared for the show.  The show notes are prepared ahead of the show and do not reflect extemporaneous discussions, but do contain links and additional information to topics discussed. You can listen to a podcast of the show at the […]

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2014 Florida Competitive House Seats

In 2014, all 120 members of the Florida State House of Representatives stood for election. Of the 120, 47 seats were uncontested or decided with a primary race only. Of the 73 general elections held, 13 had the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate with 10% of each other in total votes for the general election. *Data is at bottom of post

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The Recipe for Success to Break Inertia in places of Hegemony

I anticipate some blow-back on this blog post, but “since my intent is to write something useful to whoever understands it, it has appeared to me more fitting to go directly to the effectual truth of the thing than to the imagination of it” (Machiavelli 61). In a previous post, we dared to ponder the question, “Do political campaigns really matter?”  We looked at the curious case in Alachua County where two Republican campaigns were […]

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Florida Republican Alex Patton sourced in WSJ

Florida Republican consultant was featured in the Wall Street Journal regarding the void from Senator Marco Rubio’s run for President. Rubio’s Departure to Put Florida Senate Seat in Play May 3, 2015 By Arian Campo-Flores   “We’re now getting into the tier of candidates with little name ID statewide,” said Alex Patton, a Republican political consultant in Gainesville. That means a potentially drawn-out primary contest, he said. Though Mr. Patton said he expects the eventual […]

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Ward Scott Show Notes – 5/5/2015

Show notes from Ward Scott Files radio program. CINCO DE MAYO The date is observed to commemorate the Mexican army’s unlikely victory over French forces at the Battle of Puebla on May 5, 1862,  In the United States, Cinco de Mayo is sometimes mistaken to be Mexico’s Independence Day—the most important national holiday in Mexico—which is celebrated on September 16 The Most Popular Politician in America In an era defined by unrelenting partisan conflict, exceedingly popular politicians are not […]

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Do political campaigns really matter?

Why in the world would a campaign consultant ask the seemingly heretical question, “Do political campaigns really matter?” The answer: partially purposefully provocative combined with another part intellectual curiosity, but as we prepare to spend billions of dollars to elect our next President, we should explore the question. The Interesting & Peculiar Case of Alachua County As a political operative in a Democratic dominated area, I’ve run multiple campaigns in this Democratic stronghold of a county.  I have […]

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Ward Scott Files Show Notes – 4-28-2015

Here are my random show notes for the Ward Scott Files for 4/28/2015. We did spend some time discussing demographic trends and how that complicates issues for the GOP at the national and statewide level. WHY THE 2016 GOP RACE MAY BE MORE LIKE 2012 THAN THE PARTY HOPED via Matea Gold and Ed O’Keefe of the Washington Post The 2016 Republican presidential contest, designed to be a tidy affair, is instead shaping up to be a […]

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15 Campaign Mistakes First Time Candidates Make Running for Political Office

First time candidates make mistakes, and it is because we expect them that we can take steps to minimize them. Over the past 20 plus years, I have observed first candidates making mistakes early in the process and during a campaign. This quick guide is an attempt to help first time political candidates avoid the most common campaigning mistakes, and it may act as a refresher for more experienced candidates. PRE-CAMPAIGN LAUNCH MISTAKES Not Doing Correct Research […]

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