What Political Scientists Think We Know That You Don’t (But Probably Should)

Introduction

Before and after every election cycle, I revisit a particular academic paper by Hans Noel. Written in 2010, it continues to hold up remarkably well, probably because it challenges all the flashy, data-driven assumptions that dominate political talk today. The title alone—Ten Things Political Scientists Know That You Don’t—is a bit smug, maybe even condescending, but that’s part of what makes it appealing.

Noel’s paper pulls back the curtain on some essential truths that often get overlooked or lost amid the noise of campaign headlines, data deep dives, and daily polling. Sometimes it’s valuable to step back from the latest regression analysis and re-ground ourselves in a few fundamentals.

Noel’s work is a reminder that political science has uncovered a set of counterintuitive findings that challenge what pundits and conventional wisdom claim to know. These insights, while occasionally dry or detached, offer a more grounded way of understanding our political reality.

Let’s dive into these ten insights and then explore a few things we admit we don’t know.

Dr. Noel writes a bit more detail about each of the the ten things political scientists know, I will do my best to summarize each.  (I do recommend reading the full paper.  It’s not dense and is accessible.)

Ten Things Political Scientists “Know”

1. It’s the Fundamentals, Not the Campaigns

The first point Noel raises is one of the most sobering: campaigns are not as influential as we think. Economic conditions, the incumbent party’s time in power, and other macro factors often predict election outcomes more accurately than any catchy slogan or debate zinger. That’s not to say campaigns are meaningless, but in presidential elections especially, the fundamentals make all the difference​.

See : Do Campaigns Really Matter?

2. The “Will of the People” Is Hard to Pin Down

Political commentators love to speak for “the American people,” as though they’re a unified, like-minded entity. In reality, public opinion is fragmented, inconsistent, and shaped by all kinds of outside influences. Most voters lack firm ideological stances and often just follow party cues. So, while we believe in the “will of the people,” it’s often an oversimplified idea​.

3. The Will of the People Might Not Even Exist

Even if we could measure public opinion perfectly, it wouldn’t necessarily add up to a coherent “will of the people.” Kenneth Arrow’s famous theorem showed that it’s nearly impossible to perfectly aggregate everyone’s preferences into a fair and consistent choice. For every voting system, there will be contradictions that make a unified “will” unrealistic. This doesn’t mean democracy doesn’t work; it just means it’s a messier, more imperfect process than we’d like to admit​.

4. There’s No Such Thing as a Mandate

Winning an election doesn’t necessarily mean voters support everything you stand for. Outcomes are heavily influenced by macro factors (like the economy), and election “mandates” are often narratives created after the fact to suit political agendas. Claims of a mandate are usually wishful thinking at best and oversimplifications at worst​.

See: Relax, overheating in politics is normal!

5. Duverger’s Law and the Two-Party System

The U.S. voting system naturally favors two dominant parties, thanks to the single-ballot, simple-majority format. This effect, known as Duverger’s Law, is why third parties rarely break through, even if they have significant support. Political structures, not just voter preferences, make it almost impossible for third parties to win in a meaningful way.

See:  Will there ever be a “multi-party” system (i.e. 5-10 parties) or are we stuck here?

See also: Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?

6. Partisanship Is Powerful

Despite the reverence for “independent” voters, most people who identify as independents actually lean toward one party and act accordingly. True independents make up a small and often disengaged portion of the electorate. This reveals that partisan loyalty runs deeper than we might think, even among those who claim neutrality.

See:  Affective Partisanship – Why do you hate me?

7. Special Interests Aren’t So Special

When I ask my students “What is the difference between an interest group and special interest group?”  They normally blink at me until I answer my own question – “A special interest group is an interest group we don’t like or agree with!”

When politicians blame “special interests” for political gridlock, it’s a convenient dodge. Special interests aren’t inherently bad; they’re just organized groups with specific agendas, often representing a legitimate slice of society. Democracy thrives on these factions, as James Madison argued. Labeling them as “special” only obscures their role in the broader system​.

8. Grassroots Movements Need Leaders & Money

No political movement is entirely spontaneous. While grassroots organizations appear to spring up from the ground, they require leadership, coordination, and resources to mobilize people and sustain their efforts. This doesn’t make them “astroturf” or inauthentic; it’s simply how organized politics works.

Grassroots operations are time and resource intensive and rarely if ever truly organic

9. Most Independents Are Actually Partisans

Here’s a repeat offender: independents. While they get touted as thoughtful, nonpartisan voters, most independents vote predictably along party lines. Research shows that “leaning” independents behave like committed partisans, undermining the narrative that they hold the balance of power in most elections.

I beg people to stop when in a minority party situation saying “All I need to do is win all the Independents….”

See: So, You Want to Run As an Independent or Third-Party Candidate?

10. Political Science Embraces Uncertainty

Finally, political science acknowledges what it doesn’t know. Academics are often reluctant to declare absolutes, recognizing that our understanding of politics is always evolving. Unfortunately, the media does a poor job of conveying the inherent uncertainty involved in studying human behavior.

This nuance and cautious approach may be frustrating for those looking for clear answers, but it reflects an honest acknowledgment of how much more there is to discover.

Open Questions in Political Science

While Noel’s ten points provide a solid foundation, there are plenty of unanswered questions in political science that researchers continue to explore. Here are a few of the most pressing:

The Local Campaign Question

Campaigns might not matter as much at the national level, but what about at the state and local levels? It’s possible that campaign tactics are more effective in smaller races where local issues and candidate interactions carry more weight. Research is still catching up on how these factors play out in non-presidential elections.

Breaking the Two-Party System

Duverger’s Law suggests that the two-party system is here to stay, but could changes to voting rules (like ranked-choice voting) actually shift the balance? Political scientists are watching closely to see if these reforms have the potential to shake up party dominance in a meaningful way.  In Florida ranked-choice voting has been banned, and my initial exploration of it concluded with me not being a fan.

see: Ranked Choice Voting – a final verdict and a “Winner”

Improving Public Opinion Measurements

Public opinion polling has significant limitations, often influenced by question phrasing, social context, and methodology.

Future methodologies might better capture the nuances of opinion. Until then, poll results will only tell part of the story (and don’t forget the uncertainty).

Long-Term Effects of Media Fragmentation

How do social media and increasingly fragmented, siloed media landscapes influence voting and political engagement over time? Do they lead to more polarization, or can they encourage more diverse perspectives? This question remains open as researchers study the effects of information ecosystems on political attitudes and behavior.

How Can Polarization Be Reduced in Democracies?

Extreme partisanship and polarization are pervasive issues that threaten the functionality of democratic systems, but the best ways to counter polarization remain elusive.

Could structural reforms—such as open primaries, run-offs or nonpartisan redistricting—make a measurable impact? Or are deeper cultural and educational changes needed to bridge divides? This is a question at the forefront of modern political science research.

A wrinkle:  Is being polarized all that new?  Maybe the default for the American public is polarization?

What Persuasion Techniques Are Most Effective at Changing Voter Behavior?

Political campaigns invest heavily in persuasion tactics, from targeted ads to social media strategies, but we still don’t fully understand which techniques genuinely sway voters or change their behavior short-term and especially long-term.  And remember there is a difference between behavior and belief change.

Is it more effective to appeal to emotions, reinforce group identities, or focus on policy information?  (I believe an emotional appeal from in-group)  And are certain tactics more impactful for undecided voters than for strong partisans? Is there a way to do deep canvasing “at scale?”  Political scientists are investigating the complex interaction between messaging, voter psychology, and the media to determine what truly moves the needle in an era of information and disinformation overload.

Effectiveness of emerging technologies?

There are some fascinating emerging technologies on the horizon. Recently, I spoke with an AI company that claimed if we provided them with a detailed breakdown of target participants for a focus group, they could generate AI bots to conduct the group. These bots would test messaging, ads, and even ask participants for explanations. It sounds almost blasphemous, I know—but if we’re all living in a simulation, who’s to say it’s out of the realm of possibility?

In addition, we must continue to evaluate polling methodolgies, especially in multi-modal collection scenarios.

Conclusion

The title Ten Things Political Scientists Know That You Don’t comes off as arrogant, but clickbait titles are all the rage now, and Noel’s insights give us a rare peek behind the curtain at the hidden rules and norms that shape our political system. Political science, far from just academic jargon, is a discipline that seeks to decode these complexities and challenge the oversimplified narratives we often hear.

Of course, political scientists aren’t exactly unified. You haven’t seen a real clash until two scholars with big egos and bigger opinions go head-to-head on a disputed finding. Significant disagreements exist within the field, and many of these findings carry their own uncertainties and caveats.

But, the field is “humble” enough to acknowledge there remains things we don’t know or may never know.

Yet, Noel’s work reminds us that a deeper, more nuanced view of politics—one that embraces messiness, ambiguity, and contradiction—ultimately brings us closer to the truth.

It’s a call to go beyond hot-take, pundit-driven narratives and engage with the underlying realities that govern political life.