Science Friday:  Motives for Political Reasoning

Science Friday: Motives for Political Reasoning

There are some studies in political science that are interesting, and the results also pique your interest into further research.

One the fundamental questions we deal with in the political consulting profession – how do people make the political decisions they make?  Frankly, we want to understand how so that we can possibly interject into the process to persuade.

We have a significant amount of research into motivating reasoning – that is the human minds incredible ability to start with an end goal and then selectively allow in information that boosts that goal while ignoring information that doesn’t.  This study sets out to explore the “motives that underline the wants.”

What makes us want what we want?

The authors are from Northwestern University and the study is found in Political Psychology (2020) entitled “When and How Different Motives Can Drive Motivated Political Reasoning”

Cite:  Bayes, R., Druckman, J. N., Goods, A., & Molden, D. C. (2020). When and How Different Motives Can Drive Motivated Political Reasoning. Political Psychology, 5, 1031. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12663

We see once again Republicans being experimented on due to their views on climate change.  We first read about this treatment with “The Influence of Identity Salience on Framing Effectiveness: An Experiment.”   Researchers tend to use highly polarized and politically charged issues in these explorations because there is a lot of motivated reasoning observed.

In this experiment, researchers look for the why?  Are Republicans trying to be accurate, affirm their moral values, or affirming their group identity, or some other reason?

The authors look at types of effective political messages:  presentation of novel information, the evocation of personally important values, and the communications of ingroup norms (um a really fancy way of saying … peer pressure).

This research specifically is attempting to explore the relative effectiveness of each message type on changing people’s opinions or under what conditions each of these types of information may be more or less effective.

The formal hypothesis is:

H1: All else constant, when an individual’s goal—affirm values, maintain a group identity, or achieve accuracy—aligns with the message provided—a moral relevance frame, group norms, or credible information—the message will have a greater effect on that individual’s opinions and intentions, relative to when the goal and the message provided do not align.

 

NOTE:  The paper also explores backlash effects (when information makes people dig into positions even more extremely), but that is an additional write up.

 

METHODS (HOW THEY DID THIS)

The authors used a large online survey of self-identified Republicans.  A total sample of 1964 was used.   Participants completed demos, and then were assigned to 1 of 13 experimental conditions.  One was a control the other 12 varied two factors:  messages and motivations.

Messages:

1)      Accuracy – a detailed informational message that describes a recent report (Volume II of the Fourth National Climate Assessment) on the scientific consensus that climate is changing due to human activities, it will have grave consequences, and individual actions are needed;

2)      Morals – “climate change is occurring and will destroy the sanctity of the pristine environment, making it everyone’s patriotic duty to take action to combat climate change.”

3)      Ingroup – “the climate is changing, that contrary to many people’s impressions a clear majority of Republicans agree with this fact, and also that many Republicans are taking action to combat climate change.”

Independent of the messages, four motivations were explored:

1)      No-motivation (ideology, partisanship were asked post treatment)

2)      Value threat prime (asked about ideology, partisanship and a series of partisan-as-social identity questions, then asked about the extent they felt the Republican party has strayed from core value of decency and purity)

3)      Identity threat prime (asked the degree the Republican party is falling apart and lacking consensus – using a asymmetric scale – meaning one was forced to at least somewhat agree)

4)      Accuracy prime  (ideology and partisanship were asked post treatment, and participants were told they were going to read a PSA and asked to be even handed and then told they would need to evaluate the announcement and explain how they arrived at their answers)

(Yes, it is manipulative and why it is called an experiment.)

They were also asked about their climate change beliefs (collapsed into a scale), their intended climate behaviors (buy an electrical car, etc) collapsed into a scale, and their support for five climate friendly policies (tax credits, government investment, etc) collapsed into a scale.  (If you would like the exact wording – download the supplemental information)

FINDINGS

In looking at the results and when taken together, “ the motivational matching and the motivational distinctiveness analyses offer a clear conclusion. A message—whether it included credible information, moral value framing, or group norms—had a greater impact on beliefs and behavioral intentions when individuals’ underlying motivations matched the nature of the message.”

What I personally find most interesting is almost a throw away line in the conclusion:  “The greater strength of the norms message relative to the values message suggests a motivational priority of concerns with group identity over concerns about upholding moral values regarding this issue.”  Once again, we see the strength of partisanship and polarization rearing its ugly head.

Another interesting non-result is knowing that Republicans generally believe climate change is happening, they “did not push for climate change policies.”  Why?  Is it a way of hedging?  Or is there an additional motivation not explored such as Republicans antithesis to big government solutions proposed?

All the BEST Polls Agree With Me

In today’s Science Friday, we explore biases in polling – BUT we explore it from the angle of the interpretation of polls. 

In a paper from Madison & Hillygus (both from Duke), they conclude that while most political nerds will evaluate a poll by reviewing the methodology, sample size, and question wording, “we find a significant factor in respondent assessments of polling credibility to be the poll results themselves.”  Said a different way they “found that polls were perceived as more credible when they matched a respondent’s prior opinions and less credible when they did not.”

Experiments

The researchers conducted two experiments – one with polling a candidate and one with polling a policy issue.   It was a relatively simple experiment design – measure your priors, introduce polling, measure the change in your perceptions. 

In both instances, the researchers find motivate reasoning.  

“Overall, these results of attitude polarization, together with the findings above showing a poll’s perceived credibility being conditional on congruence with prior beliefs, indicates that evaluations of polling information are biased by motivated reasoning.

Conclusions

This finding is concerning.  We often use polls to pop “bubbles” that politicians and consultants find themselves to be in. 

We position survey research and polling as “objective” research and a way to check critical assumptions.  This study illustrates that polling results are not being absorbed objectively. 

However, if the hyper-partisan political atmosphere is allowing political actors to disregard any research finding, we are in dangerous territory.  

citation:  Madson, G.J., Hillygus, D.S. All the Best Polls Agree with Me: Bias in Evaluations of Political Polling. Polit Behav 42, 1055–1072 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-019-09532-1

 

download the paper

Trumps Victory in Miami-Dade Florida in 2020

Trumps Victory in Miami-Dade Florida in 2020

Oh Miami! The city of my favorite show as a kid (Miami Vice), white sand beaches, Cuban food, and a kaleidoscope of culture. This Florida boy loves him some Miami.

Miami-Dade is the county that includes the Miami we all know and love.

Miami (Dade County) is also a Democrat stronghold in Florida, with Democrat Presidential candidates averaging over 60% – until 2020.

Miami-Dade is arguably at the epicenter of President Trump’s 2020 victory in Florida.

Something interesting happened in Miami, and we are trying to answer, “How did DJT increase his vote margin in Miami-Dade in 2020?”

2016 versus 2020

Donald Trump won Florida in 2016 and 2020. In 2016 he won with 49%, and in 2020 with the absence of a strong third-party candidate increased his vote to 51.2%, a 2.2% increase.

Miami-Dade was approximately 10.5% of Florida’s total vote in 2016 and 2020. It is Florida’s largest block of voters on a county basis.

In reviewing the data, Miami-Dade explodes off the page because DJT increased his vote share there by 7.2% – or nearly triple his statewide gains.

In today’s hyper-partisan world, we often see changes on the margins – not in this case.

A 7% move in a Democratic stronghold deserves a much more detailed examination.

 

MD – DJT % Dem % DJT MD % Statewide MD % Statewide DJT FL Vote Dem FL Vote
2016 33.8% 63.2% 7.2% 10.4% 49% 47.8%
2020 46.0% 53.3% 9.4% 10.5% 51.2% 47.9%
 delta +7.2% -9.9% +2.2% +.1 +2.2% +.1%

 

For this analysis, I am going to exclude any precincts with less than 100 total votes.

Republican Voters

Of course, we expect the vote totals for President Trump to be highly correlated with the Republican vote.

plot of Trump by Rep voters Miami Dade

In this graph, we explore precinct results with the Y axis is the vote total for President Trump, and the X axis is the number of Republicans voting.   We observe a R2 of .962.

This graph is displayed so that when review the Hispanic Vote, we have a comparison point.

Hispanic Voters

plot of Trump v Hispanic Voters Miami Dade

In this graph, we look at precinct results with the Y axis is the vote total for President Trump, and the X axis is the number of Hispanics voting.

We observe a R2 of .851!!

 Trump and Hispanic Vote in Miami Dade

Next we explore the marginals –

Plot - DJT x Hispanic Voter - Percent

This displays by precinct, the Republican vote share (%)  by the Hispanic voter turnout (Hispanic voters / total voters %) in 2020.

In addition, we observe when the data deviates from the fit line, it is tending to deviate much more on the high side of the line.

Performing a simple linear regression of the two variables:

Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant) .06 .011 9.365 .000
HIS_2020_to_p .589 .019 .810 30.953 .000
a. Dependent Variable: r_2020_p

 

For every 1% increase in vote total for Donald Trump, we see an increase of over a half of percent in Hispanic turnout.

Simply put the more Hispanic a precinct became, the more votes DJT received.

We can visualize this a different way:

Here is a map of the hispanic voters in Miami-Dade County by Precinct.

Next, we explore the greatest gains by precinct for DJT from 2016 to 2020.

Trump - precinct gains 2016 to 2020

That cluster of votes split by Okeechobee Blvd is heavily Hispanic and some of Trump’s largest gains.

Conclusions

The GOP has long had a strategy of attacking an opponents strength.  And Miami-Dade can long be thought of as a Democrat stronghold.

It appears the gains in Hispanic voters for Donald Trump were significant in Miami-Dade and while they do not explain all of his gains they do  explain a significant part of his gains.

GOP staffers earned some stripes on this one.  From a blocking and tackling perspective – well done!

Reintroducing Political Science Fridays

Reintroducing Political Science Fridays

Political Research Fridays

One of the most popular segments of this blog was “Political Science Fridays”. It was a blog post each Friday that presented a quick hit of academic research in the areas of political science, political psychology, and/or voting behavior.

At some point, I stopped doing the posts. I was recently asked to start doing them again. So, consider this the first, new “Science Friday”.

The Influence of Identity Salience on Framing Effectiveness: An Experiment.

This is a survey experiment exploring the importance of identities on framing effectiveness.

As the author explains, we all have a few social identities. For example, I am a “father”, “a brother”, “an owner of a small business”, and “an evil political consultant” to name a few. At different points in my life / day those identities will rise and fall in importance to me (salience) depending on the context around me.

The experiment explores priming a frame(s) – “parental identity” or “partisan identity”- and the effect, if any, on the highly polarized issue of climate change.

In this experiment, if you were in the parental frame group, it simply asked you questions about your family – How many children do you have? What ages are your children? “How important is it for you, personally, to make the world a better place for your children?” and “Some parents are worried that priorities that they have as a parent are being threatened by current policies. What about you? When you make political decisions, how important is it to protect your priorities as a parent?” That is it. Four questions.

For the partisan group, one was asked about their political party registration, length of party registration, “How important is it for you, personally, to see the policies supported by your political party implemented?” and “Some voters are concerned that the principles that underlie their party affiliations are being threatened by current policies. What about you? When you make political decisions, how important is it to protect your party’s principles?” That is it. Four questions.

Then each group was presented “neutral” information on climate change, and finally each group was asked questions about climate change – specifically “level of concern about climate change, likelihood of undertaking personal and political behavior in support of climate change mitigation, and support for climate change policies.”
As you can see, fairly simple in design.

Results

“Among Republicans, both the Frame Only and the Parent Prime + Frame treatments significantly increased climate change concern and likelihood to undertake proclimate behaviors, while the partisan prime eliminated this framing effect.”

“The results for the Democrats in the sample were fairly consistent with the hypotheses, with the important difference that priming a partisan identity seemed to increase framing effectiveness more than priming a nonpartisan (parental) identity. “

“Through a survey experiment, I found evidence that identity salience does matter to framing effectiveness. Specifically, presenting a frame about the impact of climate change on future generations increased climate concern and intended proclimate behaviors among Republican parents, but first priming a partisan identity eliminated this framing effect. For Democrats, priming a partisan identity increased climate change concern compared to the control, while priming a parental identity did not lead to any increase in attitudes. Priming partisan identities resulted in significantly more polarized policy support, while priming parental identities resulted in significantly less polarized policy support between Republicans and Democrats.”

Conclusion

As you would guess, our identities at any given time are intertwined. One is never ‘only’ a Republican or ‘just’ a parent. This study suggests our immediate frame of reference activates what information we are receptive to listening to. If we are in a Republican frame of mind, we will think like …. a Republican.

The biggest take away? If you want to talk politics – especially about polarized topics – maybe start by talking about anything other than politics.

DOWNLOAD PAPER.

Type of Paper: Survey Experiment, n=978
four subgroups:
• Frame only group, n=213
• Parent Prime + Frame Group, n=234
• Partisan Prime + Frame Group, n=234
• control group, n=297

Finding(s):
“suggest that political communication on polarized issues is likely to be more effective at building bipartisan agreement when nonpartisan identities are salient.”

Discussion / Additional Questions:

Additional research is needed to measure duration of effects.

Study omitted Independents and No Party Affiliations.

The author used UNICEF as a nuetral presenter of information on climate change – stating “UNICEF is largely viewed positively by the public due to its generally nonpolitical work in promoting the welfare of children around the world (Quesnel, 2004). It was therefore chosen as a neutral message source.” This could be problematic in exploring partisans – in that anything affiliated with the United Nations could be seen as anything other than neutral to a segment of political partisans.

citation: Diamond, Emily P. “The Influence of Identity Salience on Framing Effectiveness: An Experiment.” Political Psychology, 22 June 2020, 10.1111/pops.12669. Accessed 17 Sept. 2020.

Amelia’s 2021 TRENDS IN DIGITAL MEDIA, POLITICAL RESEARCH, AND DATA

Digital Media

Censorship has been an issue in the past as we know and it isn’t going anywhere in 2021. The problem will only increase as tech companies continue to gain power and influence. People on the right side of the aisle feel this issue far more than the left. It is no secret that these large tech companies lean far left. 90% of Republicans say it is likely that social media sites censor certain political viewpoints and there are so many different instances that have led a large majority of Republicans to feel this way. Twitter alone has locked President Trump out of his account dozens of times for extended periods of time during his presidency. Twitter and Facebook also worked together prior to the 2020 Presidential election to silence a New York Post article regarding the investigation of Hunter Biden to prevent harm to Joe Biden so soon to election day. These tech companies constantly play favorites and I predict the silencing of conservative voices will only get worse under the Biden administration over the next 4 years.

Political Research

Still following the topic of social media, there are hot-button words used online that trigger conservatives and liberals differently. A study was done at multiple universities such as Berkeley and John Hopkins where they scanned the brains of three dozen politically left and right leaning individuals as they watched videos on hop topics such as immigration. What they found was that liberals and conservatives responded differently when the content contained vocabulary that frequently pops up in political campaign messaging. This research showed a glimpse into the partisan brain and proved the power language can have in driving polarization or persuasion.

 Source for reference: 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201020150509.htm

Political Data

After the 2020 presidential election, the majority of the youth turnout was for Biden over trump. The youth turnout is estimated to be between 52%-55% between the ages of 18-29 and has increased by 10% since 2016. Joe Biden was able to secure the youth vote over Trump by a 25-point margin but still more than a third of the youth vote (36%) supported Trump. It isn’t terribly surprising that the left has been able to sway the youth vote more in their favor. They are more savvy on social media with their campaigns and have a modern appeal that can easily sway new voters. The Republican party could use a digital facelift in order to win more of the youth vote in the next election cycle.

 Source for reference: 

 https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#the-views-of-young-trump-voters

 

 

 

Ben’s 2021 Trends in Digital Media, Political Research, and Data

Digital Media

Peer-to-peer (P2P) Texting 

With an estimated 3 billion political texts sent during the 2020 election – texting has become an effective weapon for political campaigns. This number is expected to grow as more campaigns include texting in their political digital media portfolio. Prepare to have a full inbox every other November.

What do us political digital nerds like about texting? Open rates and speed. 

The average open rate for political texts sits around 70%-98%, which is much higher than the 15%-25% open rate for political email campaigns. In addition, campaigns are fast-paced and when opportunities arise, you have to act immediately. Unlike other forms of media, texting allows campaigns to send direct, personalized messages to targeted audiences within hours. In 2022, expect texting to be a staple of political campaigns.

Source for reference:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/28/1011301/why-political-campaigns-are-sending-3-billion-texts-in-this-election/

 

Political Research

While political texting is personal, direct, and effective – like all things – it isn’t immune to misuse and political shenanigans. Researchers at the University of Texas Center for Media Engagement studied texting shenanigans during the 2020 election. Although I do not endorse the conclusions of the authors, they do a great job providing examples of how political organizations and operatives are using political texting to communicate controversial – and sometimes unethical – messages with voters.  

Negative Campaign Message Attacking Joe Biden:

“Joe Biden endorsed giving 8 and 10 year olds sex change treatments. This is way too extreme for me. I can’t support him.” 

The study states, “this message, claiming to come from an unnamed ‘Democratic volunteer’, began lighting up on people’s phones in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania the week before the 2020 election.”

The Beto O’Rourke Campaign “Imposter”:

“Hi, it’s Patsy here with w/ Beto for Texas. We are conducting an internal poll and would like to know your thoughts on the dangers of socialism.”

In this example, an individual volunteered for the Beto campaign with the intention of turning voters away from the Democratic candidate. Volunteer “spies” have always existed – be careful who sends texts for your campaign!

Byron Donalds Fake Dropout Text:

On election day, candidate and now Congressman-elect for Florida’s 19th District, Byron Donalds, was the victim of a black-hat, dark money texting campaign. The text told voters that Donalds dropped out of the race – which was not true. 

There are plenty of other examples within the report. Whether ethical, unethical, controversial, or just good, solid messaging – political texting is a powerful tool for campaigns. We will see more of it in the coming years. 

Glover, K., Gursky, J., Joseff, K., & Woolley, S. C. (2020, October 28). Peer-to-Peer texting and the 2020 U.S. election: Hidden messages and intimate politics. Center for Media Engagement. 

Download the Report:

https://mediaengagement.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Peer-to-Peer-Texting-and-the-2020-U.S.-Election.pdf

Political Data

How will the RNC use the “Trump-only” voter data? 

Over the past 4 years, the RNC and Trump campaign have collected an insane amount of voter data. Particularly, I am interested in the data collected on individuals who have never voted in their lifetime until casting a vote for Donald Trump in 2016 or 2020. As 2020 showed us, Republicans cannot afford to lose voters in key states and districts. The RNC knows who these people are. It will be interesting to see how the RNC plans to keep these “Trump-only” voters engaged during the post-Trump era as we gear up for the 2022 midterms.