Extreme Voices and Interest Groups

Extreme Voices and Interest Groups

Someone recently asked me why I ditched “Science Fridays”—you know, the fun little deep dives into whatever academic paper caught my eye that week. Honestly? I had no good answer. So, in the spirit of not having a better excuse, we’re bringing it back!

This week, we’re diving into the world of interest groups and how our elected officials may interact with them.

 

Title: Extreme Voices: Interest Groups and the Misrepresentation of Issue Publics

Link: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24546176

Peer Reviewed:  Yes

ASPA Citation:

Claassen, R. L., & Nicholson, S. P. (2024). Extreme Voices: Interest Groups and the Misrepresentation of Issue Publics. Public Opinion Quarterly.

Introduction

Political ignorance among the general public is often offset by the existence of *issue publics*—citizens who care deeply about specific topics and are well-informed about them. But the big question is whether these engaged citizens accurately represent the broader issue public, especially when they belong to interest groups. Spoiler: they don’t. This paper explores the disconnect between active interest group members and the broader public on policy matters.

Methodology

The study uses two large national surveys—the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey (CCES) with a sample size of 36,500 and the 2004 National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES). These surveys provided a rare opportunity to query individuals on both their interest group memberships and specific policy preferences. The researchers focused on 10 interest groups across various policy areas, including the NRA, AARP, unions, and advocacy groups like the Sierra Club.

Key demographic characteristics (e.g., gun ownership for the NRA) were used to distinguish group members from nonmembers within each issue public.

Results/Findings

Interest group members consistently express more extreme policy opinions compared to nonmembers in their issue publics. For example, NRA members are much more conservative on gun control than non-NRA gun owners.

This difference holds across nearly all ten groups studied. Importantly, the variation is largely driven by ideology and party identification, rather than other socio-economic factors.

One key finding is that the incentive structure of the interest groups matters. Groups offering expressive benefits (like NARAL) tend to attract more ideologically extreme members, while groups that offer material benefits (like unions) show smaller opinion gaps between members and nonmembers.

Critiques of the Research

While the findings are robust, the study is somewhat limited by its reliance on surveys that don’t always capture the full diversity of interest groups.

The study also focuses primarily on large, national organizations, which might not fully represent local or smaller groups’ dynamics. Furthermore, the mechanism behind why group members hold more extreme views remains speculative.

Additional research could explore how interest group recruitment strategies might further polarize these issue publics or explore the potential differences between national, state, or local levels.

Conclusion

This research makes it clear that interest groups don’t just amplify the voices of the engaged public—they distort them.

Members of these groups are not only more active but more extreme in their policy views, which can skew the perception of public opinion.

This misrepresentation may contribute to increased polarization in policy debates, as lawmakers often look to interest groups for cues on where the public stands on critical issues.

The takeaway? When politicians rely on interest groups to gauge public opinion, they might be getting a distorted view, leading to policy decisions that don’t reflect the broader public’s preferences.

Or “Just be careful not to get too far over your skis”

The Taylor Swift and Politics Post – A Study on the Impact of Celebrity Engagement on Civic Participation

The Taylor Swift and Politics Post – A Study on the Impact of Celebrity Engagement on Civic Participation

 

 AOL - Taylor Swift's Era's Tour has broken huge records in... | FacebookAs the father of a daughter who had Tay Tay on repeat 24/7, I wouldn’t call myself a full-blown Swifty—but I’ve definitely been Shake It Off-ed into submission.

More importantly, Taylor Swift’s most recent venture into political activism got me thinking: what happens when pop stars go from topping the charts to trying to have an effect on the political process?

Time to explore how much sway our favorite celebrities really have when it comes to politics!

 

The research:

Title: Celebrities Strengthening Our Culture of Democracy: A Study on the Impact of Celebrity Engagement on Civic Participation

Link: Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation – Harvard Kennedy School

Peer Review Status: This study is not a peer-reviewed academic paper but part of the Ash Center’s Policy Brief Series.

ASPA Citation: Spillane, A. (2024). Celebrities Strengthening Our Culture of Democracy: A Study on the Impact of Celebrity Engagement on Civic Participation. Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, Harvard Kennedy School.

Introduction

Celebrities have long shaped American culture, influencing everything from what we buy to what we care about.

The study focuses on a more critical aspect of their influence: boosting voter participation and civic engagement.  It expores  how celebrities use their platforms to engage fans in the democratic process, leveraging their fame to increase voter registration, participation, and overall civic engagement.

Methodology

The research draws on interviews with 15 participants, including managers, publicists, nonprofit partners, and celebrities. It also analyzes data from 10 different civic engagement initiatives by notable celebrities such as Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, and Kerry Washington. These initiatives vary in approach—some primarily used social media while others integrated offline efforts such as concerts and events.

Results/Findings

  •  Celebrities are effective in encouraging voter registration and participation. For example, Taylor Swift’s 2018 Instagram post led to 65,000 new voter registrations in 24 hours.
    • note:  within hours of Taylor Swift’s post about endorsing VP Harris in the 2024 election – the General Services Administration told ABC News that more than 330,000 people had visited the voter registration link shared by Swift.  (source:  ABC News)
  • Activations, like Ariana Grande’s voter registration booths during her 2019 tour, signed up over 33,000 voters.
  • Celebrities like Questlove and Kerry Washington have also spearheaded large-scale efforts to recruit poll workers and promote voting, contributing to significant spikes in civic action.

The impact varies based on authenticity and alignment with the celebrity’s existing brand. When executed well, these initiatives benefit both democracy and the celebrity’s public image.

Critiques of the Research

While the study provides valuable insights, there are limitations:

    1. The sample size of case studies is relatively small and mostly focused on high-profile celebrities.
    2. The study could benefit from more granular data on long-term voter engagement beyond the initial mobilization effort.
    3. There’s little focus on the potential negative backlash celebrities might face from politicizing their brand, which could affect their broader fanbase.  After all Michael Jordan famously said about his absence from politics “Republicans buy shoes too!”

Future research could expand to include more detailed metrics on the effectiveness of these initiatives over time and explore the dynamics of celebrity-led civic engagement in smaller-scale, local efforts.

Conclusion

The study concludes that celebrities play a meaningful role in encouraging civic participation.

Their ability to attract media attention and connect with diverse audiences makes them powerful allies in promoting voter engagement.

The key takeaway is that when celebrities engage authentically, they not only benefit democracy but also enhance their own public standing.

So to sum it all up, I am not saying Tay Tay is in charge of the world, but I wouldn’t cross her.

How many parties does the United States REALLY have?

How many parties does the United States REALLY have?

In the email bag “Alex, I contend we have a 3 party system now: Democrats, Traditional Republicans, and the Tea Party/MAGA/Hard right. These three parties rarely agree on anything. Prove me wrong and write it up online!”

As always, your wish is my command.

As you read this, keep in mind Party Identification is not equal to Political Ideology.

Party Identification

Gallop tracks party identification, by asking “do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?”

Yes, we know there are Libertarians, Green, and a host of small additional parties, but we mostly discount them. Why?

Because in America, where the parties and politicians write the rules for ballot access, it becomes difficult for small parties to get on the ballot.

In addition,

  • Independents don’t agree on much, other than their dislike of politics or the two major parties.
  • Donors are partisan and don’t like investing in flyers.
  • The Psychology of Voting
  • Independents who do vote are for the most part closeted partisans

We see this when Gallop asks a follow-up question to Independents:

When Gallops “As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?”

But at times candidates not from one of the major two parties do win.

Typically, three conditions are necessary

  • The independent candidate is independently wealthy.
  • The independent candidate is famous.
  • One of the two candidates from the two major parties is significantly flawed.

A perfect example of this is the WWF Superstar Jesse Ventura’s successful independent campaign for Governor of Minnesota.

So, we have two main parties in the US. However, these two parties house many political ideologies.

Political Ideology

America is much, much more diverse than right/left, red/blue, Rep/Dem.

There is no one definitive answer to the question of how many political ideologies are in American politics because political ideology is a complex and fluid concept.

However, many are familiar with a two-axis approach with social and economics being the two scales. I have read addtional research identifying up to 16 distinct ideologies, but I think that is splitting hairs a bit.

These clusters are not mutually exclusive and at times do over-lap.

My friends at Echelon Insights recently updated their nationwide survey of ideology based on these two axes, identifying 4 clusters.

Echelon continues their research asking, if America was a multi-party system, what would that look like?

Conclusion

So, when our reader writes “Alex, I contend we have a 3 party system now: Democrats, Traditional Republicans, and the Tea Party/MAGA/Hard right. These three parties rarely agree on anything.”

I would disagree, we still have two major parties in America by design and infrastructure.

These two parties house different ideologies that often in other proportional systems of government would be viable political parties. But rather than proportional government, America has first past the post elections, leading to two parties.

Within these parties, these clusters fight for power at times these clusters change, meld, and eject themselves. It has been like this since America’s founding.

In modern times, the GOP traditionally housed Republicans who believed in free markets and limited government intervention in the economy, low taxes, and a strong national defense.

Now, it also houses a newer, MAGA faction that believes in supporting former President Donald Trump and his policies (whatever they may be). They are often characterized by their nationalist, populist, and protectionist views. MAGA Republicans are typically more “conservative” than traditional Republicans on both social and economic issues.

It is hard to tell, noting that the current GOP officially has NO PLATFORM.

The populist / birch / maga sect has traditionally been housed in the GOP to varying degrees of strength. Buchanan and Goldwater times are two examples, but the group never really gained much power within the GOP.

That has changed. In fact, one could make the argument that DJT was an independent/third-party candidate who instead of running outside the party structure, ran inside, took over, and captured the GOP.

As seen this week in the House’s cluster of an operation of the election of a new Speaker and the charts above, the MAGA sect is now the dominant faction in the GOP.

Traditional Republicans are now faced with a choice:

  • Go the Mitt Romney route and retire/quit, or
  • Adopt new beliefs, or
  • Stay inside the party and fight to re-establish dominance, or
  • Leave the party.

Here is a dirty little secret – I have little to no faith in Traditional Republicans’ ability to re-take control of the GOP. I have witnessed their cowardness in the face of the rise of MAGA, and without massive losses at the ballot box, the GOP is MAGA.

In the coming months and years, Traditional Republicans will assimilate (justifying it by saying that anyone is better than any Democrat), be ejected, drop out, or choose a different path. Simply, Traditional Republicans are not welcome in today’s MAGA GOP.

And because of that, I do think depending on how the 2024 election goes, we may be witnessing a major realignment happening that could further extend the chart above with yet another cross-over.

So, here is the bottom line: we have two parties, the rules and first past the post elections in America virtually guarantee a two-party system, but in the coming months and years, we may have a slew of free agents.

Sidenote

In his farewell address, George Washington tried to warn us about political parties.

“I have already intimated to you the danger of Parties in the State, with particular reference to the founding of them on Geographical discriminations. Let me now take a more comprehensive view, & warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the Spirit of Party, generally.

“This Spirit, unfortunately, is inseperable from our nature, having its root in the strongest passions of the human Mind. It exists under different shapes in all Governments, more or less stifled, controuled, or repressed; but in those of the popular form it is seen in its greatest rankness and is truly their worst enemy.

The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge natural to party dissention, which in different ages & countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders & miseries, which result, gradually incline the minds of men to seek security & repose in the absolute power of an Individual: and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty.

“Without looking forward to an extremity of this kind (which nevertheless ought not to be entirely out of sight) the common & continual mischiefs of the spirit of Party are sufficient to make it the interest and the duty of a wise People to discourage and restrain it.”

Ozean Media Announces @ ShevrinJones as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

Ozean Media Announces @ ShevrinJones as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

Ozean Media Announces @ ShevrinJones as Winner of The ‘@’ Award 

Rep. Shevrin “Shev” Jones is Recognized as the Twitter Power User for Florida Senate

Alachua, FL – May 17, 2023– Ozean Media, a political affairs firm specializing in research, data, and media, announces @ShevrinJones (Senator Shevrin “Shev” Jones) as the winner of The ‘@’ Award for the Florida Senate.

“Senator Jones is the clear leader among his peers in the Florida Senate in the use of Twitter,” said Alex Patton, Managing Partner of Ozean Media. “Senator Jones was neck and neck with Leader Book, but never relinquished his lead throughout the period of measurement. If other elected officials are looking to up their Twitter game, Senator Jones is a model worth studying.”

“It is no secret that significant political communication has been happening on Twitter, and Ozean Media is studying the various ways elected officials use or don’t use Twitter. The best in class rather than only broadcasting are interacting with people outside the political bubble and are using rich media such as images and videos”, concluded Patton

“We knew studying Twitter at a time of massive changes on the platform would be risky, but we believe it was worth it. We believe we collected the largest sample of tweets from Florida Legislators to date, and we have gained a greater understanding of how elected officials are using Twitter,” said Ben Torpey, Ozean Media Consultant.

The ‘@’ Award will be presented at to Senator Jones at his convenience in late May 2023. More information about the award, the final top 10 ranking, week-to-week standings, and the final report can be found at: Twitter Final Report – 2023 FL Legislature. 

About Ozean Media

Ozean Media is a strategic partner in political affairs, providing consulting and public relations services to drive the movement of audiences toward a specific policy or cause. Ozean leverages research, data, message development, and media to achieve our clients’ goals. More information can be found at ozeanmedia.com.

About The ‘@’ Award

The ‘@’ Award recognizes the top Twitter user among Florida’s House of Representatives and Senate based on a proprietary algorithm that weighs factors such as follower count, tweets, retweets, likes, and engagement. The award was originally scheduled to collect data until May 5, 2023, but Twitter’s API changes restricted access to data, so the award is based on data collected through Feb 26 – April 28, 2023.

Ozean Media Announces @AnnaforFlorida as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

Ozean Media Announces @AnnaforFlorida as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

Ozean Media Announces @AnnaforFlorida as Winner of The ‘@’ Award 

Rep. Anna V. Eskamani is Recognized as the Twitter Power User for the Florida House of Representatives

Alachua, FL – May 17, 2023– Ozean Media, a political affairs firm specializing in research, data, and media, announces @AnnaforFlorida (Representative Anna Eskamani) as the winner of The ‘@’ Award for Florida House of Representatives.

“Rep. Eskamani is the clear leader among her peers in the Florida House in the use of Twitter,” said Alex Patton, Managing Partner of Ozean Media. “She not only broadcasts her own messages, but also engages with others on the platform. If other elected officials are looking to up their Twitter game, Rep. Eskamani is a model worth studying.”

“It is no secret that significant political communication has been happening on Twitter, and Ozean Media is studying the various ways elected officials use or don’t use Twitter. The best in class rather than only broadcasting are interacting with people outside the political bubble and are using rich media such as images and videos”, concluded Patton.

“We knew studying Twitter at a time of massive changes on the platform would be risky, but we believe it was worth it. We believe we collected the largest sample of tweets from Florida Legislators to date, and we have gained a greater understanding of how elected officials are using Twitter,” said Ben Torpey, Ozean Media Consultant.

The ‘@’ Award will be presented at to Representative Anna Eskamani at her convenience in late May 2023. More information about the award, the final top 10 ranking, week-to-week standings, and the final report can be found at: Twitter Final Report 2023 FL Legislature

About Ozean Media

Ozean Media is a strategic partner in political affairs, providing consulting and public relations services to drive the movement of audiences toward a specific policy or cause. Ozean leverages research, data, message development, and media to achieve our clients’ goals. More information can be found at ozeanmedia.comhttps://ozeanmedia.com.

About The ‘@’ Award

The ‘@’ Award recognizes the top Twitter user among Florida’s House of Representatives and Senate based on a proprietary algorithm that weighs factors such as follower count, tweets, retweets, likes, and engagement. The award was originally scheduled to collect data until May 5, 2023, but Twitter’s API changes restricted access to data, so the award is based on data collected through Feb 26 – April 28, 2023.

2023 Florida Legislature and Twitter Use

2023 Florida Legislature and Twitter Use

Methodology

Given a specified time interval (March 5 – May 7 or Florida Session’ sine die whichever is later) and a list of Twitter handles, the algorithm assigns a tailored weighting to variables including tweets, retweets replies, follower count, following count, and effective reach. The initial ranking was done for a period of the week before Florida’s legislative session started or Feb 26 – March 4.

Unfortunately, the period for rankings ended on April 28 due to changes in Twitter’s API that drastically changed and reduced access to tweets and other data on the platform.

Therefore, final rankings were decided using the period of Feb 27 – April 28, 2023.
Our Twitter algorithm, while recognizing Follower Count and number of new tweets, also attempted to recognize different uses of the platform – to include other activities other than simply broadcasting tweets.

Key Findings

  • Representative Anna Eskamani is the Power User of Twitter in the Florida House.
  • Senator Shevrin “Shev” Jones is the Power User of Twitter in the Florida Senate.
  • Power Users use Twitter differently – Power Users interact not only broadcast.

While the algorithm had to take follower count into consideration and raw number of new tweets, it also indicates a correlation between higher follower counts and different types of tweets.

Members that not only tweeted, but also replied and retweeted others, correlate with higher follower counts. It appears, those that have been able to grow a large audience are interacting with other users, not only posting and using the tool primarily as a broadcast medium.

Members that not only tweeted, but included media (photos, video, and GIFs), correlate with higher follower counts.

Final Ranking

Representative Anna Eskamani (D, FL 52) and Senator Shevrin “Shev” Jones (D, FL 34) are awarded The @ Award recognizing their “Power Use” of Twitter during the 2023 Regular Session of the Florida Legislature.

Both Representative Eskamani and Senator Jones lead the pack in Twitter usage from the beginning, and they never looked back. Other elected officials vied for the 2nd through 10th spots, but Eskamai and Jones were significantly ahead of their peers.

2023 Final House Rankings

Twitter Name Ranking
@AnnaForFlorida 1
@micheleforfl 2
@AngieNixon 3
@RAlexAndradeFL 4
@DanDaley 5
@Gantt4Florida 6
@SpencerRoachFL 7
@BernyJacques 8
@FentriceForFL 9
@ChipLaMarca 10

2023 Final Senate Rankings

Twitter Name Ranking
@ShevrinJones 1
@LeaderBookFL 2
@loriberman 3
@LindaStewartFL 4
@senpizzo 5
@IleanaGarciaUSA 6
@debbie_mayfield 7
@Kathleen4SWFL 8
@TinaPolsky 9
@GovGoneWild 10

Content

Content varies with large blocs of “Thanks fellow member x for passing the/my bill through committee/chamber”, holiday greetings, and tweets on the abortion issue.  

Below are word clouds of the tweets of House and Senate members.

House Tweet Word Cloud

Senate Tweet Word Cloud

Tagging/Mentions

When elected officials @ someone, they are most likely to @ a fellow Legislator or elected official.

The second most likely entity is a Florida press entity.

A cursory review of the tweet data indicates precious few interactions with constituents.

Hashtags

House and Senate members used Twitter hashtags infrequently during the session. The most frequently used hashtag was “#latergram.”

Most prolific Tweeters

As one would expect, the algorithm rewarded elected officials that tweeted often.

In the House, Representative Eskamai was the top tweeter with 768 total tweets.

In the Senate, Senator Linda Stewart (D, FL 13 – final ranking #4) was the most prolific tweeter with 364 total tweets.

However, Senator Stewart’s relatively lower follower count prevented her from climbing higher in the rankings.

Largest Following

Representative Eskamani shines when it comes to follower count with 90,523 followers.

Senator Jones lead the way in the Senate with a follower count of 35,004.

To put these numbers in context, the highest follower count of any elected official in Florida is Senator Marco Rubio at 4,518,971, followed closely by Governor Ron DeSantis with 4,139,420.

However, Rep. Eskamani has more followers than half of Florida’s Congressional delegation, and Rep. Eskamani and Senator Jones have more followers than a majority of Florida’s statewide elected cabinet members.

Interactivity of Tweets (tweets by type)

Our algorithm rewarded elected officials for interacting on Twitter rather than simply broadcasting. The algorithm assigned weight for Replies and ReTweets.

This is one of the main reasons elected officials with smaller follower counts saw increases in their over ranking.

For example, Senator Linda Stewart (final ranking 4) had a follower count of 3,848; however, 46% of her tweets were replies or retweets. Representative Alex Andrade (final ranking 4) has a follower count of 5,717 however, over 62% of his tweets were replies or retweets.

Media Use

On average, 40% of tweets of the top 10 Power Users in each chamber contained media (photo, video, or animated GIF). Of the tweets that contained media, the vast majority (80%) were photos.

Platform Use

While the algorithm did not use ‘platform’ as ranking criteria, the information was collected.

Over 85% of the tweets sent from the top 10 Power Users were sent using Twitter for iPhone.

The remaining 15% were sent using the Twitter web app and Twitter for iPad.

Few rely on third-party apps like TweetDeck or Hootsuite. However, those not in the top 10 appear to use third-party apps at a higher rate.

While this needs more research, it is our theory, higher usage of third-party apps may be an indication that staff is managing social media accounts rather than the member. We observe an increase in the use of third-party platforms with “official press accounts” of Florida’s Congressional delegation.

Final Thoughts

It is of note tinged with sadness that Twitter is making its API cost prohibitive to researchers.   

Without underwriting, it is unlikely that additional studies can be conducted, and we think that is a shame.