Ozean Political Blog
A political blog about digital media, data, research and consulting.
How divided is Florida?
I went to bed last night thinking about about DecisionDeskHQ's attempt to make a nationwide precinct map. It is a challenging and cool project. Thinking about this as I slumbered, I awoke wondering just 'how divided are we in Florida at the precinct level'? Thanks...
TV DMAs by County
I was looking for a data-set this morning for a GIS project, and I thought the data would be relatively easy to find. It wasn't. I did find what I wanted in one case, but someone was charging $199 for the data. So, I spent a couple of hours researching, compiling and...
Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?
As always, some of the best questions come from readers of the blog. “Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?” came to us via email. It is also timely with the recent discussion from Kristol and polling information from Data Targeting. Polling Third...
How to read a Political Poll!
The sheer number of polls this political cycle is amazing. The sheer number of bad polls this political cycle is stunning. Regardless, the manner the press reports on polling is just God-awful. Biggest Polling Complaint My largest complaint is that the amount of...
Time for Change Model (Implications for local politics)
This week Politico featured an article The End of the 2016 Election Is Closer Than You Think The Politico article is a fantastic read, but doesn't go into the particulars that I would like to explore. Yes, the Politico article in someways scooped a theme I have...
The Effort Required to Have an Opinion
I've been thinking about the amount of effort required to have an opinion. What drove this strain of thought: I was having a conversation with a subject matter expert and I voiced my opinion. He replied, "That is certainly an opinion, but to have an accurate opinion,...
What causes bumps in polls and polling?
An astute listener to the radio show, the Ward Scott Files, that deals with political strategy and polling asks, "What causes bumps in polling?" Bumps in Polling Often after a candidate announces they are running for President, or after a major party's political...
The Recipe for Success to Break Inertia in places of Hegemony
I anticipate some blow-back on this blog post, but "since my intent is to write something useful to whoever understands it, it has appeared to me more fitting to go directly to the effectual truth of the thing than to the imagination of it" (Machiavelli 61). In a...
Do political campaigns really matter?
Why in the world would a campaign consultant ask the seemingly heretical question, "Do political campaigns really matter?" The answer: partially purposefully provocative combined with another part intellectual curiosity, but as we prepare to spend billions of dollars...
15 Campaign Mistakes First Time Candidates Make Running for Political Office
First time candidates make mistakes, and it is because we expect them that we can take steps to minimize them. Over the past 20 plus years, I have observed first candidates making mistakes early in the process and during a campaign. This quick guide is an attempt to...
Is America’s Two Party System Heading Towards Collapse?
I am not an alarmist, nor would I be considered a chicken little. In fact, I tend to think systems self-regulate and maintain an equilibrium. However, for the first time, I am starting to ponder is America's current two party system heading towards collapse?...
So, you want to challenge an incumbent?
There is a difference between descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. There is also a difference between the following two questions: What are my chances of challenging an incumbent? and If I decide to challenge an incumbent, what do I need to do to be...