Science Friday: Why negative campaigning works! An Overview
As political consultants, we catch TONS of blow-back for negative campaigning.
However, when we are asked why we engage in negative campaigning, we don’t do ourselves any favors by flippant remarks such as “Well, negative campaigning just works!”
As professionals, we all know it just works. We know it intuitively, we have been taught it by mentors’ rules of thumb, and we have seen the numbers tank 20 points when an explosive direct mail piece / issue hits. We have the war stories.
We also know that we can pump out positive, fluff bio pieces by the truckloads and not interest the press one darn bit. However, we send out one, small universe hit piece and the press goes NUTS!
However, let’s not just blame the press or just retort “It just works”.
Instead, let’s take a moment to explore the real culprit : the human mind.
Yep, it’s your brains’ fault that negative campaigning works.
It is your brain’s fault!
Principle #1 : Bad Interactions have stronger, more pervasive, and longer lasting effects.
In a 2001 study by Roy Baumeister, Ellen Bratslavsky and Catrin Finkenauer “Bad is Stronger Than Good”, the results are clear! In their conclusion, “It appears to be a basic, pervasive fact of psychology that bad is stronger than good.”
The study performs a comprehensive review of different literature of “bad versus good” It reviews everything from evolution to psychology to communication to relationships to emotions and moods to rewards and punishment to how we process information.
In fact, when speaking of processing information:
“Thus bad information does receive more thorough information processing than good information. Bad information is more likely to seize attention, and it receives more conscious processing as well.”
It does not matter where you look, the human mind is wired – “Bad interactions have stronger, more pervasive, and longer lasting effects.” PERIOD!
Principle #2: Loss Aversion – Losses loom larger than gains.
Human brains are wired to be loss averse, by a large margin. When faced with potential losses, our brains become totally irrational and develop a blind spot … by a large spread.
“The “loss aversion ratio” has been estimated in several experiments and is usually in the range of 1.5 to 2.5.” Kahneman, Daniel (2011-10-25). Thinking, Fast and Slow (p. 284).
Essentially, the human responses to loss is stronger than the response to corresponding gains. This is commonly referred to as prospect theory, and this concept changeds Economics and how we think of human decision making.
Further suggested reading: Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman (it really is an almost must read)
Conclusion
In summary, our brains are wired to remember the bad. It appears to an evolution trait developed so that we may live: remember the bad tiger and survive the threat – OR – remember the good smelling flower and get eaten by the tiger.
In summary, we also know that if we can make you fearful of losing something, we can awaken emotions in your brain that you didn’t know you had.
In this cluttered, busy and fast moving world, is it any wonder of what breaks through?
We can motivate your brain with bad, scary information, and it is cheaper to do so.
However, it ain’t political consultants’ fault! It is your brain’s fault!
The next time your neighbor or the press goes crazy about a negative piece do not reply “It just works”.
Instead tell them why it works:
“It’s your brain’s fault – your brain remembers & thinks about bad stuff more and your brain is loss averse by a 2:1 margin. Change your brain, and I will change my campaign tactics.”
There has been a trend towards political pundits using the term “low information voters”; however, I am growing greatly concerned with the misuse of this term.
Low Information Voter
Low information voters, also known as LIVs or misinformation voters, are people who may vote, but who are generally poorly informed about politics. (Wikipedia)
I have heard this term used by many of talk show hosts, and frankly, they are misusing it or they don’t understand it.
This misuse of this term is going to have profound long-term and strategic down stream effects, if we don’t change course.
What is wrong with the term ‘Low Information Voter’? Simply, the misuse of the term promotes a wrong archetype of a voter.
This term creates a archetype of a ‘low information voter’ bumping around in the wilderness, stupid, and uneducated. This voter, if only educated with facts and figures, will suddenly wake up from their slumber, see the light, and become engaged voters.
This image, stereotype or archetype could not be further from the truth.
Rationally Ignorant Voters
I prefer the term Rationally Ignorant Voters (Downs) because I think this is a much better archetype. Only by understanding the ‘Rationally Ignorant Voter’ archetype can we develop proper communication strategies.
The difference? Rationally Ignorant Voters have made a decision either consciously or unconsciously not to invest their time and energy in politics. When weighed against everything else going on in their lives, politics is not worthy of the investment of increasing their political knowledge.
These voters are choosing to spend time elsewhere in places they find more valuable.
The archetype is NOT someone bumping along aimlessly lost in a forest. This voter can be a highly educated person, civic minded, grounded in principles and values, but for whatever personal reasons, just doesn’t care that much about politics. Or if they care, it is 28th on the list of things they care about.
The ‘Rationally Ignorant Voter’ is my beautiful, loving, and incredible wife.
Before the negative emails begin, I love my wife and she is far from ‘ignorant’; however, she is what I would consider a Rationally Ignorant Voter. I could also use my mother, my friends, or even the CEO of a start up I know, but I like living dangerously.
A few notes about my loving, beautiful, awesome wife: She has a graduate degree, works full time. She is an incredible mother of a 10 year old son and a 7 year old daughter. She is an fantastic wife to a man that acts like he is a teenager a lot of the time. She keeps one helluva clean house, coordinates schedules to get kids to Tae Kwon Do and ballet, etc. She has managed to harness chaos and have energy left over. She is the modern woman.
She is very interested in certain topics that are in the political world – mental health issues, child protection. However, past those issues, she is making a decision NOT to invest any additional time in politics. She thinks the rest of us are nuts.
Now, I live, breathe, eat politics and this practice blows my mind. However, when she starts talking to me about esoteric new treatment plans for x mental disorder, I suddenly understand. With everything going on in my life, I just can’t put that much energy into the DSM-IV.
What to do?
Understanding the difference in the two archetypes is essential to understanding how to communicate with these voters.
What the ‘Low Information Voter’ crowd is getting wrong is they think education with facts, figures, and stats are suddenly going to make a light go off.
WRONG.
You can throw all the education at my love wife you like, but just because you care about something doesn’t mean she will.
When you understand the Rationally Ignorant Voter archetype, you understand it is not facts and figures, it is caring.
It is NOT the rational side of the brain you have to activate.
It is the emotional side of the brain one must activate to get the attention of these voters.
Remember, they have made a decision NOT to invest time and energy in politics because it is a low priority in their everyday lives, and until you make them want to invest more time by triggering the emotional center of their brains , you will not break through.
To communicate with these voters, you must understand the values of my wife and communicate with her through these.
That is not done with boring “education”, it is done with contrast & conflict but that is another post.
But before that, please don’t believe that the simplistic “Low Information Voters” label is correct. It is wrong, misleading, and much more complicated.
A good friend of mine made a comment that has stuck with me over the past few days “The Internet moves at the speed of Imagination!”
That statement remained with me over the past 3 days as we designed, built, and tested (I use those words VERY loosely) a complete broadcast studio in our office.
How it all began
There is a local radio station that featured a conservative radio talk show, Talk of the Town. The show was a live call in show broadcast M-F 11am – 1pm. As with a lot of media, there is a move towards consolidation and ownership changes. Last Friday, the ownership of the station changed, and as with any new owners, their vision for the station differed from hosting a local, call in talk show. On Friday, the station changed its format to High Energy Dance music bringing a little Jersey Shore to our local town.
At the same time, our single local paper announced they were putting up a digital pay-wall for their news content. Again, their right to do so.
Immediately upon hearing of the cancellation of the talk show, Ozean approached the show hosts with an idea:
In this media chaos, there is an opportunity. We can create a digital station that will focus on hyper-local coverage and build an online community around it. And yes, we can have you back on the air by Monday.
The scramble begins
A secret? As with many things on the Internet, we had no budget and no specific idea how to actually do this. We knew it could be done, but the how….
We just remained focused on producing the Minimum Viable Product – we wanted a live broadcast with live call ins with the ability for people to listen in a web portal or mobile app. Piece of cake, right?
Here is a rough timeline with the snags we worked through (some of the details may be fuzzy due to sleep deprivation….)
FRIDAY
Step 1) Find a third party partner who could accept our live stream and push it to pre-made mobile apps. This is the critical piece.
SNAG: The provider is located in California with one sales person who was telling me that they couldn’t have me on by Monday (it was too technically challenging and we would most likely crash and burn.) I politely insisted he take my credit card and take my money. The sales man finally relented, and I stopped at a Starbucks and executed the contract online. In a triage situation, this was the airway.
Step 2) Build out a quick website. Cobbled a quick website together using WordPress. It is not the prettiest site nor is it totally built out, but not bad for 5 hours and 2am in the morning. Alachuatalks.com
Step 3) Cobble together software to broadcast and test connection. Tested multiple software packages and vendors.
SNAG: Our chosen provider’s software works only works on a PC. DARN IT everything is set up to go through a Mac. Spending about 3 hours on forums and google searches, we find an alternative piece of software, download trial and configure.
SNAG: For the life of me, could not get a connection made. I suspected that I was not opening a firewall port correctly. Called in reinforcements. A network expert, Stafford Jones, and he remotely dialed into our computer and diagnosed issue and fixed it. We were now connected to a test server.
Step 4) Build out additional web pages and functions. Install analytics at 9 pm. Post a couple social media posts about the show pointing to the new site. I am embarrassed of the sites appearance. Real time results show there is interest in the new website. Encouraging. Pass out.
Step 5) Wake up an hour later – forgot to place a place to capture email addresses on the site. Set up Mailchimp list, build widget, insert crudely into the website making it even more ugly. Sleep again.
SATURDAY
Step 6) New equipment. We needed new mics, a mixer, a way to digitize, connectors to get it all into a computer and broadcast.
SNAG: Of course we could find all the equipment we needed online, but we needed it Saturday, not in 2 -days shipping time. Asked a friend if he had a spare mixer laying around? He did! Then looked in a spare closet for old equipment we already owned that may work. Found a piece that MAY WORK! Drove to a local music store (Lipham Music) and told them what I was attempting to do. They shared their expertise and we cobbled a system together. True, it is not optimal, but it MAY work.
Step 7) Opening, plugging in and testing. Started cobbling together all this different equipment from different eras, praying it all somehow worked.
SNAG: My daughter has a dance recital on Sunday, and because I am going for the dad of the year award, we had Daddy Daughter dance rehearsal on Saturday 9am.
Step 8) Returned from dance recital practice and test cobbled together mics and returns.
SNAG: Mics are working, Returns are not working. Set this aside until later and make note to call my friend who owns the mixer so that he can help me. (He later looks at a photo of the mixer online and tells me what knobs to turn. BOOM! Working!)
Step 9) Ability to take call ins.
SNAG: We have a VOIP system in our office and I didn’t want to use my regular business phone for a call in number. When attempting to purchase a new number and configure our Asterisk server to route the number to a phone, I suddenly remembered that we have a phone number with our internet provider that we never use. We don’t even have a phone line attached to it.
SNAG: Because, we only have VOIP phones, I don’t know if that phone line works. We need a cheap $9 phone and an old analog phone cord.
SNAG: We need a specialized piece of equipment that can splice in phone calls and allow the hosts to interact with the caller. Called my network friend, Satfford, again. We agree to work on it on Sunday.
SUNDAY
Cobbled together studio
Step 10) Major Issue: Solve the call-in problem.
SNAG: Daughter’s dance recital is today – this means Dress rehearsal at 1:55pm and recital at 6pm. Put call-in issue off for now.
Step 11) Test mobile connection. Call one of the hosts, walk him through install of mobile app and test broadcast on his I-phone. BOOM! He downloaded mobile app and could hear me broadcasting. Partial success. (didn’t mention the call in issue)
Step 12) Dress rehearsal. Pick up daughter, head to Performing Arts Center for a 15 minutes rehearsal. Take her home head back to office.
Step 13) Meet gracious friend, Stafford Jones, at the office. Plug in cheap phone. DIAL TONE. Now, how do we get this to work with the other stuff? Our first set up got the audio from the phone to the broadcast, but the callers wouldn’t hear the hosts. We started cutting wires splicing it together, destroying some headsets and phones along the way. Tired. Went home Sunday night not knowing how we were going to get this critical part to work, but had an idea of what may work.
Step 14) Dance recital. 6pm.
Step 15) Panic. How am I going to get the call ins to work?
Step 16) Exhausted and worried that we are heading for a disaster remember that I have to send out instructions to people on how to listen to the show. Compose and send an email blast to people who had signed up for the email list. Erase the words, “If we broadcast…..” from the email several times.
MONDAY
Step 17) Visit Super Wal-mart at 6:30 am. They have ONE speakerphone on the shelf and a 50 foot cord. My bright solution? Literally going to put a mic on a speaker phone – WOW is that awful and very low-tech for such a digital endeavor. But for now, it just may work.
Step 18) Set up speaker phone.
SNAG: Phone needs 4AA batteries. Can’t find them. Run to CVS, purchase batteries, 1 hour until go live time.
Step 19) Test broadcast
SNAG: It FAILS. Looks like our provider did maintenance over the weekend and the port that we need opened has changed. PANIC. Log on and follow the pattern set by my friend, open a new port.
Step 20) Talk show guests arrived and this is the first time we check mic levels, and test broadcasting. With the new port, it seems to work. Success!
Step 21) Quick – test mobile app. Success!
Step 22) Say a quick prayer, FLIP SWITCH AT 11 AM….and we are broadcasting.
SNAG: Within 10 minutes, due to overwhelming demand, web server crashes.
Step 23) Act as tech support- helping listeners tune in the broadcast with a server crashing. Re-route traffic.
Not everyone who want to hear, could hear, but some did.
Again, while not optimal, there was demand and the MVP worked….barely. We live to tomorrow and clearly defined the words ‘minimal viable’.
The Point
The point was not to paint a scenario that mirrors the ending chaos from GoodFella’s, but to show how fast the Internet moves…..as my friend said – at the speed of Imagination.
Our “broadcast studio” is far from perfect or optimal, but for right now, the show is broadcasting.
We are working to get a little better each day. As an illustration, spent the very first day upgrading server to allow for additional web traffic, and on the second day, the server did not crash.
What have we learned
Because we could do it, doesn’t mean we should. Focus on the Minimum Viable Product, nothing more.
There is a demand for this product. Now we can look to bring in revenue to build a better product once we analyze the data to see what & how people are actually using.
I am in a mood, so buckle up, but we need to talk.
We need to talk about data
We need to talk about data.
I am putting out a warning: the next time a candidate walks into or calls the Ozean office asking for “big data”, a web, or a social media presence ‘like President Obama’s’, they are going to get slapped. HARD!
If all of this is Greek to you, then you can’t possibly imagine the cost, time, and talent it takes to assemble just the network infrastructure – let alone the people to run the damn thing.
And the network infrastructure was the easier part!
So just STOP it with the big data!
Dirty secret About Big Data
Here is the dirty little secret, if you are running for state house, state senate, congress or even US Senate in some states, you can’t afford big data.
Let’s be honest – most likely, your campaign can’t afford true big data (yet) unless you are operating at a presidential or party level. If we continue to be honest, in most gerrymandered districts, the successful use of big data would be negligible.
Big Data
Here is another dirty secret, Big Data is used to shave the margins.
In a presidential campaign or a large campaign where the winning margins are slim AND THE BUDGET ALLOWS, big data can be extremely useful.
HOWEVER,
If you talk to anyone seriously involved in predictive analysis they will tell you that their work is on the margins.
So think about it, if you are in a district that averages 60% of the vote (like most districts) for one party is it wise to pay for ‘big data’ to push it to 63%?
Next, if you are in a district that is competitive (within 10%), you have to ask yourself: “Are you willing or able to pay for BIG DATA?”
I have been involved in enough of these campaigns – even at the Congressional level – to know that candidates complain about paying for one more mail piece or 100 GRPs on TV, let alone BIG DATA.
BIG DATA & Fieldwork
But, here is the REAL unspoken part – Big Data doesn’t work without robust field work.
I am a numbers GEEK. I love them. I love data. I love multivariate regression, etc. I love SPSS. However, the real benefits of big data are NOT just a one time purchase of data.
Big Data or “Obama data” – ONLY works when you have robust field operations feeding real time data BACK into a system creating a closed feedback loop.
Big Data is NOT a one time purchase of credit card company data and calling it “big data”
The true genius of the Obama campaign was:
having initial data —>
purchasing data to augment the initial data set —->
having real time field intelligence —>
creating hypothesis —>
creating predictive models —->
having real time field intelligence feed into data set—->
running experiments against predictive models —->
comparing results to hypothesis —>
refining predictive models —->
repeat over and over again until its over.
The Obama campaign had on staff PhD level data analysts, a robust field operation, a unmatched Internet infrastructure, and the money to finance it all.
You most likely don’t.
The Saving Grace
There is a saving grace in all of this. There are only two real numbers your campaign should care about.
1) What is the likelihood the voter will vote?
2) What is the likelihood the voter will vote for you or your campaign?
Those two numbers for 95% of the campaigns in American are fairly easy to compute for any political consultant worth their weight in salt. They are not easy to perfect, but they are easy to compute. (if they cant understand that sentence, please contact Ozeans’ Political Consultants)
The Value of Experimentation
The most interesting take away for me in this BIG DATA debate is the value of experimentation in campaigns.
If you look at big data in campaigns- big data is using large data sets to test hypothesis in order to create and refine predictive models.
However, here is the kicker – ONLY by testing hypothesis, can a campaign refine their models.
The issue is that testing means FAILURE and FAILURE means a ‘waste’ of resources, right?
We must embrace experimentation
BS – You should value the political consultant that says, “I have read the most recent literature, but you know what? I don’t know. Let’s test that hypothesis by running an experiment.”
The problem is, you don’t read the press articles on the experiments that the Obama or Romney campaign ran that failed (okay, there was orca), and I will bet you my entire net worth there were many, many, many failed disasters. But the campaign learned from these failures.
The Big Data Truth
In most all cases, your campaign can’t possibly afford true BIG DATA.
If your campaign budget won’t allow you to fund small scale experiments, your campaign can not develop nor afford BIG DATA.
SO STOP ASKING FOR BIG DATA!
What your campaign should strive for is building models that are good, embracing experimentation, and developing a robust field operation that refines your data.
Commit to that and your campaign will be better off.
The calls are starting – first time candidates and incumbents are starting to call in order to explore potential campaigns in 2014.
Awhile ago, I wrote a check list for first time candidates, and while I still stand by this simple checklist, I have something additional to add to the list.
You need a political consultant.
Why? Let’s explore, because its Science Friday.
Why you need a political consultant
Setting aside hindsight bias, let’s begin with that fact that after 30 years in political consulting and political campaigns, I don’t know many things for certain, but I know the following to be absolutely true:
Our brains are designed to take shortcuts and often unwillingly and sometimes even willingly deceive us.
Our brains deceive & fail us
Let’s be honest, if you…or ‘someone you know’…is exploring a run for office, you most likely have a healthy ego. It is this healthy ego that allows you…or your friend… to feel like you have something to offer the public that they should “buy.”
Great.
The moment you verbalize your intention to possibly consider a run for office, people & your own brain begin to lie to you – even more than normal.
Why People Lie
Your friends lie because they like you and don’t want to have a candid conversation.
Your friends are not intentionally lying, but they will say thinks like “I think you would be great.”, “We need good people like you to run.”, “You would be leaps and bound better than the nit-wits we have now.”, and various other pleasant things.
People who do business with the office you seek lie because you may win.
They are looking out for the own self interest and they will be very nice to you, especially in the early stages of exploration.
Your friends and people lie to you because they don’t know better.
Your friends & others may give you an honest opinion that you may make a fantastic public official, but don’t know the first thing about political realities, political campaigns, or the campaign process.
Why Your Own Brain Lies to You
This entire Science Friday will be dedicated to the study of irrationality, heuristics and fallacies.
Let’s just state two things as facts as a summary of the entire field of research & literature:
Our brain has two parts, an emotional part and a rational part. These parts must work together and are often in conflict.
Our brains take shortcuts (heuristics) in order to make order of the world and to survive.
If one does not have a meta experience and take the time to think about thinking, you are helpless to fight the shortcuts your brain is conditioned to take.
Even if you have a meta-experience, if you do not build deliberate systems to force yourself to fight your brain, you are helpless.
This is exactly why intelligence analysts who are dealing with far more complex issues other than “should I run for office?” build these critical thinking processes into their workflow.
Bottom line: our hunches, our guts, our thoughts are often just dead wrong.
Let’s explore some common issues:
Confabulation
As humans, we are often completely ignorant of why we make the decisions we do (like run for office). We make the decision, then perform mental gymnastics to rationalize the decision. It happens lighting quick, unconsciously and then we rationalize our decision by filling in our memories and just making stuff up. We do this so often we are blissfully unaware that our brains are doing it. We simply must rationalize the decisions we make.
Fun fact: If you are asking about running for office, you want to run for office. Most likely, you are asking around seeking a rational explanation to justify your decision.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect
I don’t want to insult you, but all humans (even great political consultants) fall subject to the Dunning-Kruger effect.
This effect tells us that most of us are extremely poor at estimating our own competences and the difficulty of the complex tasks in front of us. True, the effect is more pronounced among unskilled labor, but this makes the trap even more dangerous for aspiring politicians.
As David McRaney tells us, “The less you know about a subject, the less you believe there is to know in total. Only once you have some experience do you start to recognize the breadth and depth you have yet to plunder.”
“In the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” – Russell
Political campaigns are complex operations that unless you have participated in them before, you can’t possibly know what it is like to be a candidate.
Here is another issue, just because you have participated in a campaign as a volunteer/manager/staffer, you can’t possibly know what it is like to be a candidate.
Side note: This especially holds true when it comes to the area of raising money. Remember there is a major difference between raising money for your favorite charity/business and raising money for your own political campaign. I routinely take the amount a first time candidate tells me they can raise, cut it in half and cut it in half again. More than likely, this is the amount they will raise.
Subjective Validation
Remember those encouraging words your friends tell you? You are falling subject to subjective validation.
The subjective validation tells us that people are prone to believing vague statements and predictions are true, especially if they are positive and address you personally.
The point
These are just the tip of the iceberg
These are just three of the cognitive traps that we as humans fall into. Worse? We fall prey to them all the time without noticing, and these are just the TIP of the iceberg. (To see a more comprehensive list – look to Wikipedia or look at the additional reading listed at the bottom of this post.)
The Solution
Lucky for you and your brain, there is a solution: hire a great political consultant.
Any great political consultant must study brain function. It is our job to understand the decision making process so that we can understand how voters make decisions, how political decisions are made, and how we can affect these processes.
Our job is not only to help you navigate to victory, but also to have the experience and courage to be the check against your brain.
At Ozean, we receive feedback after every campaign cycle that the number one thing our clients appreciate most is our ability to cut through the “fog of a campaign” and be candid – even when it hurts.
Ozean does this by building into our processes the systems to combat not only your cognitive biases but our own cognitive biases. This takes effort, skill, and it takes an understanding of how our brains naturally deceive us.
We are continuously floored by the number of political consultants that are operating on their guts, their rules of thumb, and their own flawed thinking.
In closing, your friends lie to you & your brains lie to you. You need a political consultant to help you navigate these waters, and you better make damn sure your consultant won’t tell you only what you want to hear.
If you would like to discuss your potential and use our critical thinking processes, please do not hesitate to contact Ozean.
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