2016 Presidential Map contested states

Yesterday in part 1 of the path to 270, we took a look at the starting electoral vote scoreboard. Here is a recap of the “Strong Favors” or states that have been won by 1 party for each of the last 4 Presidential elections. 2016 Starting Scoreboard Party Strong Favor 270 Shortage Republicans 175 95 Democrats 242 28    2016 Contested States Today, we take a look at all states that are not considered “Strong […]

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2016 Presidential – The Path to 270 – part 1

2016 Electoral College Strong Favors

The 2016 presidential campaigns are heating up quickly, and the path to 270 or victory for any presidential campaign is going to be very interesting. This post starts a multi-part blog post on 2016 presidential politics and strategy. The Basics of the Electoral College As you know, there are 538 total electoral votes in the electoral college; therefore it takes 270 electoral college votes to become President of the United States.   (CLICK – If you […]

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What is a push poll, and what is NOT a push poll?

About push polls

  I’ve received several inquiries on whether or not a “push poll” was run in our local area this week.  While I have not polled in the area in question, the question does provide a teachable moment about push polls. What is a Push Poll? The American Association of for Public Opinion Research has a lengthy definition and lists characteristics of a push poll. Here is the gist: Here are characteristics that will usually indicate to […]

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Analysis of Gainesville Mayor Race 2013

I had an email question about the Gainesville Mayor’s race from 2013. “How did a tea-party labeled Republican win in dark blue Democratic Gainesville?” Great question. First some background and context on the Gainesville Mayor Race. Context for 2013’s Mayor Campaign Gainesville’s elections are officially non-partisan; however, that does not prevent both parties from playing prominent roles, essentially striping away the illusion of nonpartisan elections. Gainesville elects its Mayor by popular vote.  Gainesville has a weak […]

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How many, if any, Christians are left in Florida’s Democratic party?

In Florida, a new state House and Senate have elected new leaders and are getting ready to start a new session after the holidays. The organizational session, the holidays, and the death of the Conservative Democrat across the nation had an interesting question emailed to us this week : “How many, if any, Christians are left in Florida’s Democratic party?” That piqued our interest, so we started looking. Methodology Downloaded the names of Democratic elected members to […]

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Did Adrian Wyllie stop Charlie Crist from being Governor?

If you know me, I am not a fan of the Libertarian “philosophy” and I generally find Libertarian candidates to be anti-social blowhards.  I say this out loud and from the get go so that you can understand my biases and judge accordingly. Noting the disclosure, I set out to analyze the effect, if any, Adrian Wyllie had on Florida’s 2014 gubernatorial election. I became interested because a friend of mine- who is a Democrat – was lamenting […]

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POLITICAL PANEL FLORIDA RESULTS

Ozean Media in connection with the Ward Scott Files recently completed a “Political You Pick ‘em” contest.  We asked people to enter the contest and pick who they thought was going to win – NOT polling them on who they were going to vote for.  The contest was open from 10/20 to 10/27. We agreed to keep the people who entered the contest anonymous, but we will release the opinions in the aggregate. Our panel […]

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Political Panel Alachua County Results

Ozean Media in connection with the Ward Scott Files recently completed a “Political You Pick ’em” contest.  We asked people to enter the contest and pick who they thought was going to win – NOT polling them on who they were going to vote for.  The contest was open from 10/20 to 10/27. We agreed to keep the people who entered the contest anonymous, but we will release the opinions in the aggregate. Our panel […]

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Cliven Bundy’s militia and the danger to Conservatives

  Conservatives, if we ignore history, we may repeat it. As you may know, I just finished an interesting read:  Ideology in America by Christopher Ellis, James Stimson.   The book explores the disconnect between what the authors called government at an operational level and how people self-identify politically. The author’s describe the main theme of the book as: “a main theme of this book, that when it comes to policy preferences, there are more liberals than conservatives. […]

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Relax, overheating in politics is normal!

I have been thinking a lot about thermostats and politics lately. This thought pattern has been driven by two things: I banned someone from my facebook page for the first time ever, and Two separate books I have been reading discuss thermostats and politics. The Facebook Ban First, the facebook ban. As you may know, I am a weekly guest on a local talk radio show.  I discuss politics, political strategy, and the science behind […]

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