Political Direct Mail, Door Knocking, and Voter Turnout
People often wonder whether campaign tactics actually get people to the polls… or is it a bunch of useless political hackery? Does mail actually work? What about door-knocking and those never-ending political phone calls?
In what is often regarded as the “gold standard” experiment in campaign effects and turnout, Gerber and Green (2000) tested this question in their study titled, The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment.
Find the article here.
The experiment took place during the 1998 election in New Haven, Connecticut, and involved over 30,000 registered voters. The authors contacted voters with voter-mobilization-themed messaging via direct mail, face-to-face canvassing, and telephone calls. The canvassing experiment began four weeks before the election, the direct mail experiment began 15 days before the election, and the telephone experiment began 3 days before the election.
The results showed that personal canvassing was the most effective campaign tactic for turning out voters, followed by direct mail. Phone calls had a negligible effect. Empirically, canvassing increased turnout by roughly 9.8% and direct mail increased turnout by .6% per mail piece.
How does this affect real-world campaigns? Knock on doors and send mail. One of the most important resources a candidate has is time. With such positive turnout outcomes from canvassing – candidates should spend their time knocking on doors and, of course, fundraising.
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