Interesting test this week with Meer Research in regard’s to the impeachment of President Donald Trump. This is a cross-post from Meer Research.
We had an internal debate on the potential wording of the question. Instead of guessing, we set out to do a quick simple test – exploring a small variation in a question.
- Donald Trump has not done anything wrong and doesn’t deserve impeachment or removal from office.
- Donald Trump has done nothing wrong and doesn’t deserve impeachment of removal from office.
- Donald Trump has done something wrong, deserves a reprimand but not impeachment or removal from office.
- Donald Trump has done something wrong, deserves impeachment, but not removal from office.
- Donald Trump has done something wrong, deserves impeachment and removal from office
That was the test – the first question.
Again, quick test. Put it on Facebook and another request on reddit. Survey started 1/30/2020 and ended 2/1/2020. (In the end, there was no difference between the question versions.)
However, an observation indicates additional research is likely needed on the impeachment question.
Let me add some MAJOR caveats here: This is by no means a proper sample. When compared to registered voters, respondents skew whiter (much), skew older, and likely skew towards higher levels of education. Interestingly, the distribution among ideology is almost a perfect bell curve -ranging from very conservative to very liberal.
Ambivalence
Often impeachment is offered as a binary choice – Yes / No, and often this is a decent indicator in today’s political environment. But there is significant research that indicates the public has a much more nuanced approach to issues. For example, abortion. Abortion is pretty black and white and often presented in a binary choice – pro-life vs pro-choice. But there is a significant body of research showing Americans often have a more nuanced approach to the abortion issue. (Shout out to Dr. Craig and Dr. Martinez at University of Florida – Sometimes You Feel Like a Nut, Sometimes You Don’t: Citizens’ Ambivalence About Abortion)
What we observe with this small, flawed survey is that early, exploratory indications are there may be some nuance towards impeachment even in this hyper polarized environment.
Impeachment by Party
Impeachment by Ideology
(I apologize for not making the graphs prettier but there is only so much a person can do while waiting on his daughter to finish dance class) But they are color coded from green (President Trump did nothing wrong, should not be impeached, should not be removed from office) to red (President Trump did something wrong and should be impeached and removed from office)
I took a peek at impeachment across party identification and ideology (5 point scale).
I repeat: this is NOT a scientific survey – BUT this shows me impeachment deserves a deeper look than the binary choice offered by the process.
Well not among my liberal and Democrat friends – you guys are pretty much in lock step with “throw the President out.”
But my conservative friends, moderate friends, and Independents – all are blinking “nuance”.
Conclusion on Impeachment Indicators
I want to be be very clear: I wouldn’t draw anything from this other than more research is needed on the topic, but……. if I am a Republican operative, I would do the research quickly.
PS. A respondent offered their own choice: “Donald Trump has done something wrong but doesn’t deserve impeachment or removal.” (dropping the reprimand) I do think that is a valid point and even more nuance.
