Judgement versus Choice

Written by: Alex Patton
Political Research

Ever read a line and it hits you as a WOW! moment?  You know a paragraph that when you read it clarifies something so well that it is embarrassing that you haven’t connected the dots on your own?

I had one of those moments this past week when reading How Voters Decide.  It is a good read that takes Behavior Decision Theory and applies it to politics in an attempt to look inside the black box of how people actually make a political/voting decision.

However, there was one paragraph that made me take notice.  I am not sure why this point struck me as so profound, but it did.

Eureka!

“Of course, one can make a judgement even when no choice is involved.  The evaluation of an incumbent between elections represents on such “choiceness” judgements in politics.” (Lau & Redlawsk 2006)

“Evaluation is about making a judgement on some dimension of interest about an object regardless of how many objects are being evaluated, while choice is inherently about selecting from a set of alternatives.” (Lau & Redlawsk 2006)

“Finally it becomes quite clear that global evaluations – at least in elections – do not have to translate directly to a vote.  Strategic voting, for example, might lead to a choice of a candidate with a lower evaluation if the voter believes that candidate has a better chance of winning, as might a vote made for other external reasons, such as based on group affiliation or please someone else.” (Lau & Redlawsk 2006)

Choosing one alternative from a set can invoke different psychological processes than judging alternatives, which are presumable evaluated one at a time.”  (Johnson & Russo 1988)

The separation and distinguishing of choice and evaluation is a major realignment of a framework for me.Judgement versus Choice

When you separate out the two functions, then you can develop distinct communication strategies to affect each process.  Once you place these two processes independent of each other, differing communication strategies start to percolate.

Evaluation happens between elections….choice happens at elections.  Off season communications versus campaign communications.

The processes of evaluation & judgement require different types and amounts of information.  Choice requires less information.Choice v Judgement

You can also see the ramifications of voters voting for some other candidate other than the one they evaluate the highest.

Finally, when you understand this distinction, you understand that the rational voter model doesn’t exist and you better tailor your communications properly to account for your audience and the communication process being employed.

I know, maybe not Earth-shattering, but still a significant framework structure to help organize your communication programs.

Research

Research is the foundation of winning public affair campaigns and political operations.  Ozean has conducted survey research, focus groups, and data deep dives across the United States.   Our analysis allows you to test critical assumptions and form mission-critical judgments.

Data

Political data is the lifeblood of winning public affairs operations and campaigns.  Ozean collects data, augments data, maintains voter files, and performs sophisticated statistical analysis and data modeling.  Our clients are able to identify trends and relationships critical to victory.

Communications

With a foundation of research and data Ozean excels at developing messaging that moves public opinion, creating data-driven audiences, and precisely delivering cost-efficient communication.   Our public affairs clients consistently achieve superior results with little to no waste.  Right message, right people, at the right time - on the right device.