Analysis on public sentiment, regulatory trends, persuasion, and campaigns.
There is a difference between descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. There is also a difference between the following two questions: What are my chances of challenging an incumbent? and If I decide to challenge an incumbent, what do I need to do to be...
I've received several inquiries on whether or not a "push poll" was run in our local area this week. While I have not polled in the area in question, the question does provide a teachable moment about push polls. What is a Push Poll? The American Association...
I have been thinking a lot about thermostats and politics lately. This thought pattern has been driven by two things: I banned someone from my facebook page for the first time ever, and Two separate books I have been reading discuss thermostats and politics. The...
To begin, I need you to think of the most stereotypical politician you can. Yes, we are talking three piece suit, monocle, the whole 9 yards. Kinda like this guy: This is the guy that asked for a meeting with me yesterday. It was a great meeting....until the walk to...
During each odd number year, I set a goal to get better at my political science craft. Part of that goal is reading. Odd number year = take advantage of some down time = goal of 50 books related to political consulting. In 2013, I exceeded the goal by 5....
Analytical Thinking & Presentation for Intelligence Producers Over the Thanksgiving weekend, during a Tofurkey induced political-nerd Internet session, I came across a copy of the CIA's Training Manual & Handbook written for their analysts entitled:...
It was my absolute pleasure to be a guest lecturer at the University of Florida's graduate political science program. I was extremely impressed with the engagement and intellect of the students. My only concern is 90% of the students in the graduate program self...
I have become that guy. You know THAT guy that likes to discuss politics on Facebook. I'm sorry, I just can't help myself. I'm curious and I want to try and figure put how people think. What I am finding is that people are fighting and not arguing, in the classical...
Just finished a pretty dense read by Gabriel Lenz, Follow the Leader: How Voters Respond to Politicians' Policies and Performance, and yes, it does include math. However, it is a very interesting read and I strongly suggest you take a gander. The main question I...
