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The Changing Landscape of Political Digital Media

by | Feb 24, 2021 | Political Research

 Year after year, digital media continues to make up larger shares of campaign budgets. This means new technology, new regulations, and a rapidly changing landscape. Compared to new, highly efficient methods, the “old digital” of yesterday is obsolete and in some cases – such as with political ads on Facebook – non-existent. Success in the digital sphere is reliant on how quickly you can adapt to, and take advantage of, these changes.

Banning Political Ads

The biggest hurdle for political digital media are social media regulations and bans on political ads. Within 12 months, Facebook went from dominating the political digital ad industry (almost 60% of all political digital ad spending went through Facebook in 2019-2020) to completely banning all political advertising – with few exceptions. https://www.emarketer.com/chart/233589/us-digital-political-ad-revenue-share-by-company-20192020-of-total-digital-political-ad-spending

 Many organization, political committee, and campaign digital strategies relied heavily or solely on Facebook. When the ban was put in place, they went dark and couldn’t compete.

 Bottomline – it is malpractice to put all your eggs in one basket and be at the mercy of any single platform. Successful campaigns have the ability to digitally contact audiences through multiple avenues. 

 

The New Kid on the Block – CTV and OTT

 Another major contributor to the changing digital landscape is Connected TV (CTV) and Over-the-Top (OTT) advertising. The impact of CTV/OTT is so significant that it allows digital advertising to compete with traditional TV advertising. Roughly 25% of U.S. households are unreachable using traditional TV ads after “cutting the cord” and choosing streaming services over traditional cable – up from just 19% in 2019. By 2024, this number is expected to grow to 35%. https://techcrunch.com/2020/09/21/pandemic-accelerated-cord-cutting-making-2020-the-worst-ever-year-for-pay-tv/

 CTV and OTT advertising is a highly accurate, highly efficient way to stream political ads into the living rooms of your target audience. Instead of blanketing an entire DMA with a traditional TV ad, CTV/OTT allows you to choose which households your ads are served to – cutting down waste and maximizing the use of every penny. Although it is unlikely that CTV/OTT will replace traditional TV ads in the near future, it is making a huge splash in the digital world. 

 

 

 

Science Friday: Political Direct Mail, Door Knocking, and Voter Turnout

by | Feb 19, 2021 | Political Research

Political Direct Mail, Door Knocking, and Voter Turnout

People often wonder whether campaign tactics actually get people to the polls… or is it a bunch of useless political hackery? Does mail actually work? What about door-knocking and those never-ending political phone calls?

In what is often regarded as the “gold standard” experiment in campaign effects and turnout, Gerber and Green (2000) tested this question in their study titled, The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment.

Find the article here.

The experiment took place during the 1998 election in New Haven, Connecticut, and involved over 30,000 registered voters. The authors contacted voters with voter-mobilization-themed messaging via direct mail, face-to-face canvassing, and telephone calls. The canvassing experiment began four weeks before the election, the direct mail experiment began 15 days before the election, and the telephone experiment began 3 days before the election.

The results showed that personal canvassing was the most effective campaign tactic for turning out voters, followed by direct mail. Phone calls had a negligible effect. Empirically, canvassing increased turnout by roughly 9.8% and direct mail increased turnout by .6% per mail piece.

How does this affect real-world campaigns? Knock on doors and send mail. One of the most important resources a candidate has is time. With such positive turnout outcomes from canvassing – candidates should spend their time knocking on doors and, of course, fundraising.

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Amelia’s 2021 TRENDS IN DIGITAL MEDIA, POLITICAL RESEARCH, AND DATA

by | Jan 7, 2021 | Political Research

Digital Media

Censorship has been an issue in the past as we know and it isn’t going anywhere in 2021. The problem will only increase as tech companies continue to gain power and influence. People on the right side of the aisle feel this issue far more than the left. It is no secret that these large tech companies lean far left. 90% of Republicans say it is likely that social media sites censor certain political viewpoints and there are so many different instances that have led a large majority of Republicans to feel this way. Twitter alone has locked President Trump out of his account dozens of times for extended periods of time during his presidency. Twitter and Facebook also worked together prior to the 2020 Presidential election to silence a New York Post article regarding the investigation of Hunter Biden to prevent harm to Joe Biden so soon to election day. These tech companies constantly play favorites and I predict the silencing of conservative voices will only get worse under the Biden administration over the next 4 years.

Political Research

Still following the topic of social media, there are hot-button words used online that trigger conservatives and liberals differently. A study was done at multiple universities such as Berkeley and John Hopkins where they scanned the brains of three dozen politically left and right leaning individuals as they watched videos on hop topics such as immigration. What they found was that liberals and conservatives responded differently when the content contained vocabulary that frequently pops up in political campaign messaging. This research showed a glimpse into the partisan brain and proved the power language can have in driving polarization or persuasion.

 Source for reference: 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201020150509.htm

Political Data

After the 2020 presidential election, the majority of the youth turnout was for Biden over trump. The youth turnout is estimated to be between 52%-55% between the ages of 18-29 and has increased by 10% since 2016. Joe Biden was able to secure the youth vote over Trump by a 25-point margin but still more than a third of the youth vote (36%) supported Trump. It isn’t terribly surprising that the left has been able to sway the youth vote more in their favor. They are more savvy on social media with their campaigns and have a modern appeal that can easily sway new voters. The Republican party could use a digital facelift in order to win more of the youth vote in the next election cycle.

 Source for reference: 

 https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#the-views-of-young-trump-voters

 

 

 

Ben’s 2021 Trends in Digital Media, Political Research, and Data

by | Jan 6, 2021 | Political Research

Digital Media

Peer-to-peer (P2P) Texting 

With an estimated 3 billion political texts sent during the 2020 election – texting has become an effective weapon for political campaigns. This number is expected to grow as more campaigns include texting in their political digital media portfolio. Prepare to have a full inbox every other November.

What do us political digital nerds like about texting? Open rates and speed. 

The average open rate for political texts sits around 70%-98%, which is much higher than the 15%-25% open rate for political email campaigns. In addition, campaigns are fast-paced and when opportunities arise, you have to act immediately. Unlike other forms of media, texting allows campaigns to send direct, personalized messages to targeted audiences within hours. In 2022, expect texting to be a staple of political campaigns.

Source for reference:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/28/1011301/why-political-campaigns-are-sending-3-billion-texts-in-this-election/

 

Political Research

While political texting is personal, direct, and effective – like all things – it isn’t immune to misuse and political shenanigans. Researchers at the University of Texas Center for Media Engagement studied texting shenanigans during the 2020 election. Although I do not endorse the conclusions of the authors, they do a great job providing examples of how political organizations and operatives are using political texting to communicate controversial – and sometimes unethical – messages with voters.  

Negative Campaign Message Attacking Joe Biden:

“Joe Biden endorsed giving 8 and 10 year olds sex change treatments. This is way too extreme for me. I can’t support him.” 

The study states, “this message, claiming to come from an unnamed ‘Democratic volunteer’, began lighting up on people’s phones in swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania the week before the 2020 election.”

The Beto O’Rourke Campaign “Imposter”:

“Hi, it’s Patsy here with w/ Beto for Texas. We are conducting an internal poll and would like to know your thoughts on the dangers of socialism.”

In this example, an individual volunteered for the Beto campaign with the intention of turning voters away from the Democratic candidate. Volunteer “spies” have always existed – be careful who sends texts for your campaign!

Byron Donalds Fake Dropout Text:

On election day, candidate and now Congressman-elect for Florida’s 19th District, Byron Donalds, was the victim of a black-hat, dark money texting campaign. The text told voters that Donalds dropped out of the race – which was not true. 

There are plenty of other examples within the report. Whether ethical, unethical, controversial, or just good, solid messaging – political texting is a powerful tool for campaigns. We will see more of it in the coming years. 

Glover, K., Gursky, J., Joseff, K., & Woolley, S. C. (2020, October 28). Peer-to-Peer texting and the 2020 U.S. election: Hidden messages and intimate politics. Center for Media Engagement. 

Download the Report:

https://mediaengagement.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Peer-to-Peer-Texting-and-the-2020-U.S.-Election.pdf

Political Data

How will the RNC use the “Trump-only” voter data? 

Over the past 4 years, the RNC and Trump campaign have collected an insane amount of voter data. Particularly, I am interested in the data collected on individuals who have never voted in their lifetime until casting a vote for Donald Trump in 2016 or 2020. As 2020 showed us, Republicans cannot afford to lose voters in key states and districts. The RNC knows who these people are. It will be interesting to see how the RNC plans to keep these “Trump-only” voters engaged during the post-Trump era as we gear up for the 2022 midterms.

 

Amelia’s Review of 2020: Political Research, Data, and Digital Media

by | Dec 31, 2020 | Political Media

This year, Ozean’s top staff will be presenting their own “Year in Review of 2020” comprised of their top takes in three areas: Digital Media, Political Research, and Political Data.

This is Amelia’s review of 2020 in political research, data, and digital media. A persepctive from a first time voter in the most polarizing election yet. 

Digital Media

 It’s been a very long year. We have been working through a global pandemic and have faced one of the most challenging election cycles in our nation’s history. This election cycle was my first time qualifying to vote in a Presidential race and I couldn’t have imagined a more exciting one even if I tried. With Americans living on their technology to work remotely and lockdowns limiting other activities, digital marketing pushes in campaigns became more crucial than ever. What came out of this big digital push were some very memorable campaign ads such as the one from Maryland’s congressional candidate Kimberly Klasick that went viral and brought in millions in fundraising dollars. It was a savvy digital ad that made the candidate look and feel relatable to voters from her district and demonstrated the hypocrisy of the democratic incumbent.  

 

Political Research

 Although this election was polarizing and maddening, it did give us many interesting voter statistics to look into. One of the most interesting findings was how the Latino communities in Texas have swung greatly over to the Republicans. From Brownsville to El Paso, Trump picked up a lot of support from Mexican voters unlike ever before. In 2016, Trump lost all 18 Texas counties where Latinos make up at least 80% of the population. This time he won five of them and closed the gap considerably in the rest. What was possibly the cause of his unlikely success in these areas was his strong support for law enforcement and his defending of the oil industry. These two fields are how many support their families in these areas of Texas. 

Political Data 

This year’s senate race between Tommy Tuberville and Doug Jones was a big one to say the least. Jones outspent Tuberville by a long shot and broke an Alabama record for campaign spending. A lot was riding on this seat for the Democrats but Republicans knew how crucial it was to flip the seat back red. Most polling done throughout this campaign always showed Tuberville up by a considerably large margin, but then an internal poll came out from FM3 Research that had Jones up by 1 point. As someone who interned and worked on the campaign, this came as a big surprise and we knew immediately it was a faulty poll. This polling was wildy innacurate considering the outcome of the election giving Tuberville a 20% win. This goes to show that the side that pumps the most money into an election does not always come out on top!