Ozean Digital Media Logo
Call 352 376 0505
Book My Meeting

How divided is Florida?

Written by: Alex Patton
Political Research

I went to bed last night thinking about about DecisionDeskHQ’s attempt to make a nationwide precinct map.  It is a challenging and cool project.

Thinking about this as I slumbered, I awoke wondering just ‘how divided are we in Florida at the precinct level’?  

Thanks to the great state of Florida, we have precinct level results, and over morning coffee, I found my answer.

The answer:  Pretty damn divided.  

If you consider a precinct “competitive” if separated by 10% or less, then few Floridians live in precincts that are competitive – the median difference in the 2016 POTUS election is 28% in Florida.    

Only 18% of Florida’s precincts had Clinton and Trump within 10% of each other.

OR

Almost half (46%) of Florida’s precincts resulted in the difference between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton being greater than or equal to 30%.

P.S.  The data is below, and now you know what nerds do on Saturday mornings before their kids wake up.

DATA

This is a histogram of the absolute value of the difference between the Clinton% and Trump% of the vote total.

Note:  (I dropped the random precincts that are less than .01 and greater than .99)

Here are the summary statistics:

Cases
Valid Missing
N Percent N
5688 100.00% 0
Descriptives
Statistic Std. Error
Mean 0.32285 0.003074
95% Confidence Interval for Mean Lower Bound 0.316824
Upper Bound 0.328876
5% Trimmed Mean 0.309017
Median   0.277699
Variance 0.054
Std. Deviation 0.231816
Minimum 0
Maximum 0.982301
Range 0.982301
Interquartile Range 0.315587
Skewness   0.804 0.032
Kurtosis -0.083 0.065

Precinct by category

Frequency Percent Cumulative Percent
0-10% 1010 17.8 17.8
10-20 1033 18.2 35.9
20-30 1035 18.2 54.1
30-40 849 14.9 69
40-50 568 10 79
50-60 399 7 86
60-70 286 5 91.1
70-80 210 3.7 94.8
80-90 194 3.4 98.2
90-100 104 1.8 100
Total 5688 100

 

Sum of Votes cast by Precinct Category

Category VotesCast % of total
0-10% 1739609 19%
10-20 1732374 19%
20-30 1920034 21%
30-40 1454646 16%
40-50 909401 10%
50-60 578875 6%
60-70 367632 4%
70-80 225290 2%
80-90 228293 2%
90-100 121634 1%
Total 9277788 100%

You can download my cleaned data at: gitHub or at data.world.

Research

Research is the foundation of winning public affair campaigns and political operations.  Ozean has conducted survey research, focus groups, and data deep dives across the United States.   Our analysis allows you to test critical assumptions and form mission-critical judgments.

Data

Political data is the lifeblood of winning public affairs operations and campaigns.  Ozean collects data, augments data, maintains voter files, and performs sophisticated statistical analysis and data modeling.  Our clients are able to identify trends and relationships critical to victory.

Communications

With a foundation of research and data Ozean excels at developing messaging that moves public opinion, creating data-driven audiences, and precisely delivering cost-efficient communication.   Our public affairs clients consistently achieve superior results with little to no waste.  Right message, right people, at the right time - on the right device.

READY TO START?

Contact Ozean
Book an Appointment