“Or, alternatively, the surveys taken before and after the debate were capturing di↵erent populations.”
“We shall argue that, in this case, apparent swings in vote intention represent mostly changes in sample composition, not actual swings. ”
Rubio’s Strategy Memo
“2016 and Beyond,” by Republican pollster Whit Ayres
Ayres is one of his party’s leading analysts. He also happens to be the pollster for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). The new book is subtitled, “How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America.”
His argument is straightforward: To win the White House, Republicans must systematically improve their performance among minorities while maintaining or even improving their support among white voters.
Based on estimates of the composition of the 2016 electorate, if the next GOP nominee wins the same share of the white vote as Mitt Romney won in 2012 (59 percent), he or she would need to win 30 percent of the nonwhite vote.
Romney won only 17 percent of nonwhite voters in 2012. John McCain won 19 percent in 2008. George W. Bush won 26 percent in 2004.
“For Republicans to become competitive again in presidential elections, Republican candidates must perform better among whites, especially in the overwhelmingly white states of the upper Midwest, and much better among minorities.”
He reminds them that deepening their hold on state and local offices in red states is no indicator of their presidential prospects.
The party holds between 53 percent and 87 percent of the state senate seats in those places, according to Ayres’s calculations. Some Republicans, he argues, look at those numbers and say, what’s the problem? But Ayres notes that those states still leave the Republicans well short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
With national polling averages serving as a key determinant for inclusion in the Aug. 6 [GOP] debate in Cleveland, candidates with higher name ID have the advantage — even if it was built by working the network green rooms rather than the grass roots. ‘It’s the [Donald] Trump problem,’ said Florida GOP strategist Rick Wilson. …
“According to the criteria released by Fox News, which will host the Aug. 6 debate, the 10 candidates [or more, in case of a tie] who make the stage will be determined by an average of five recent national polls … [Polls suggest Trump would] be one of the 10. …
“Huckabee .. and Ben Carson … currently … sixth and seventh in the national polls, … would qualify… But … Ohio Gov. John Kasich, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Fiorina — the only woman in the field — would not
Monday, June 1