An astute listener to the radio show, the Ward Scott Files, that deals with political strategy and polling asks, “What causes bumps in polling?” Bumps in Polling Often after a candidate announces they are running for President, or after a major party’s political convention or some other major event, we will observe a bump in polling numbers.  In most cases, if we wait several weeks, the bump will disappear. What are we actually observing with these “bumps” in […]

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Ward Scott Files – Show Notes – 5/26/2015

BUMPS IN POLLS Go back to address Jennifer’s question on what causes bumps in polls. A paper out of Columbia and Stanford that I came across. The people choosing to opt into a poll increases with enthusiasm from those supporting a candidate. “It seems implausible that many voters will switch support from one party to the other because of minor campaign events.1 “ “Or, alternatively, the surveys taken before and after the debate were capturing […]

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