2016 Presidential – The Path to 270 – part 2

Yesterday in part 1 of the path to 270, we took a look at the starting electoral vote scoreboard.

Here is a recap of the “Strong Favors” or states that have been won by 1 party for each of the last 4 Presidential elections.

2016 Starting Scoreboard

Party Strong Favor 270 Shortage
Republicans 175 95
Democrats 242 28

 

 2016 Contested States

Today, we take a look at all states that are not considered “Strong Favors” for any state.  (CLICK map for larger view)
2016 Presidential Map contested states

 2016 Contested States Detail

 

Rep Past Wins Possible EV
3/4 31
2/4 75
1/4 15

 

This is the detail for the map above, color coded by the party that won the race with the margin of victory.   This provides some high level insight into the trends of the states.

 

ST Rep
Wins
AvgDem
Margin
AvgRep
Margin
2016
EV
2012%
Margin
2008%
Margin
2004%
Margin
2000%
Margin
IN 3 1.03% 15.50% 11 10.20% 1.03% 20.68% 15.63%
NC 3 0.33% 9.10% 15 2.04% 0.33% 12.43% 12.83%
NE 3 14.93% 28.00% 5 21.78% 14.93% 33.22% 28.99%
CO 2 7.16% 6.52% 9 5.36% 8.95% 4.67% 8.36%
FL 2 1.85% 2.51% 29 0.88% 2.81% 5.01% 0.01%
NV 2 9.59% 3.07% 6 6.68% 12.49% 2.59% 3.55%
OH 2 3.78% 2.81% 18 2.97% 4.58% 2.11% 3.51%
VA 2 5.09% 8.12% 13 3.87% 6.30% 8.20% 8.04%
IA 1 5.22% 0.67% 6 5.81% 9.53% 0.67% 0.31%
NH 1 5.52% 1.27% 4 5.58% 9.61% 1.37% 1.27%
NM 1 8.45% 0.79% 5 10.15% 15.13% 0.79% 0.06%
5.72% 7.12% 121

 

PART 2 CONCLUSION(S)

With a look of the states that neither party dominated in the last 4 years, we can start to make some early, tentative decision of which states will be important for targeting and identifying ‘must win’ states.

Plainly speaking with a base line shortage of 95 electoral votes, we can clearly observe the GOP’s room for error.

Finally, the importance of Florida jumps off the page.

  • Assuming no “strong favor” state flips color in our base analysis in part 1 , if the GOP doesn’t win Florida, there are only 92 electoral votes (EV) left on the board.
  • Or said a different way, assuming no “strong favor” state flips color in our base analysis in part 1, the Democrats are 28 electoral votes from 270, Florida’s 29 EV puts them over 270.

Tomorrow in Part 3, we dive a little deeper and will reconsider our “strong favors”, reconsider the so-called “Blue Wall” and look at possible paths to 270 for the GOP and the Democrats.

About Alex Patton

5 Responses to “2016 Presidential – The Path to 270 – part 2”

Read below or add a comment...

  1. Jim Eberle says:

    I disagree with your assessment regarding the number of “purple” states. I would place Indiana, North Carolina, and Nebraska in the reliably red column, and New Mexico and New Hampshire in the reliably blue column. This leaves six truly purple states and provides the Democrats with 251 electoral votes and the Republicans with 206.

    I foresee a scenario in which the Republican nominee is Jeb Bush of Florida who then selects John Kasich of Ohio as his running mate. This strategy helps to shore up 47 critical electoral votes from these two states and brings the Republican electoral count to 253. This strategy then compels Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, to select a popular Virginian as her running mate. Adding Virginias 13 electoral votes to the Democratic count brings their total to 264, and puts the Democrats in the favorable position of only needing ONE of the remaining three purple states in order to achieve or surpass the 270 required. The Republicans on the other hand would be required to “run the board” and win Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada.

    • Jim Eberle says:

      Another thought. Since the Democratic convention is usually before the Republican convention, Hillary could trump the Bush plan by picking Sherrod Brown of Ohio as her running mate.

    • Alex Patton says:

      Very good points. In this part, I was attempting to take a wider view of the states in play.

      Hopefully, McCory can raise his approval ratings in NC so that state can be taken off the board.

      Thanks for reading and commenting.

Trackbacks

  1. […] 2016 Presidential – the path to 270 – part 2 […]

  2. […] In part 2 of The Path to 270, we looked at the remaining states and the trend lines for those states.  We also began to noticed the glaring importance of Florida to the GOP. […]