Why the Freedom Caucus Doesn’t Fear Trump

Got a quick question on the Ward Scott Files today, “What effect will Trump’s threats against the Freedom Caucus have?”

Short answer: Not much.

Took a quick look (excuse the non-sexy graph) at how members of the freedom caucus performed against Trump, Romney and McCain in their districts.

On average, the 30 members identified as members out-performed Trump by 5.4%.  If we throw out the outliers, it is more.  (I don’t have the time nor the energy today).

Bottom line:  the Freedom Caucus members, on average, did 5% better in their districts than President Trump did.  This is why President Trump’s threat fell upon deaf ears.

I am also reminded of a rule of grad school – before you spend a couple hours compiling data and doing research, make sure that it hasn’t already been done – 538: Should the Freedom Caucus Fear Trump?

While 538’s graphs are sexier, I walk away with the satisfaction of the exercise of scraping and sharing (AND A SMALLER BUDGET).

Here is my data on github or data.world.

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