Trump versus Clinton – by Florida House and Senate Districts

Over the holiday break, I was fiddling around with R in a feeble attempt to further my R skills.

I find a project or research question is the best way to force myself to learn.  So, the question was “How did Trump and Clinton do by Florida House and Senate Districts?”  Follow up: “Which districts were won by Hillary Clinton AND a Republican legislator?”

Methods

  • used the precinct level results provided by the State of Florida;
  • recoded Seminole County data to comport/match the other 66 counties.  (Sidebar:  Honestly, Seminole County, WHY do you have to be different?  Honestly, State of Florida, can’t you force data integrity when counties report?)
  • Built a list of unique precincts (combining county and precinct) by Florida House district.
  • Built a list of unique precincts (combining county and precinct) by Florida Senate district. (because of redistricting, we were able to get a result by most districts)
  • Pivoted data; added results for Trump and Clinton and the Legislator bounded by the list of precincts.

In retrospect, after writing it down, it wasn’t that difficult; however, my R skills are ‘improving’ through trial and error, mostly error.  My code is ugly, but it appears to have worked. (I double-checked the legislator tally against the Senate and House results).

Results / Discussion

There are a number of state districts that were won by Clinton AND won by Republican legislators – many of those were won by Hispanic Republicans.  The others are districts that are typically close districts / targets for both parties – H 63, H47, and S18. However, there are a couple interesting districts to me because they are in my area.

House 21 – Rep. Chuck Clemons

Why is this interesting?  Hillary Clinton won the house district with 50.3%; Rep Clemons won with 53.7%.  The district includes the University of Florida.

If you believe in waves…..look to HD 21 as an indicator.    If we take the lessons learned in 2017…we can see a path for a flip.

If turnout in conservative Gilchrist and Dixie counties fall AND college students are agitated enough to make it down ballot (there was an undervote of 3,000+votes) AND the Democrats can recruit a good candidate, you have the potential for a flip.

Which brings us to Senate 8…..

Senate 8 – Sen. Keith Perry

Senator Perry is not quite in the same boat as Rep Clemons, Clinton didn’t win the Senate district – BUT Clinton essentially tied (49.9% to 50.1%) the Senate district.   This district also includes the University of Florida.

Senator Perry won with 53% of the vote.  But what is interesting is there was NO undervote.  In fact, there were roughly 8,400 more votes cast in the Senate Race than the presidential race.

Again, if we take the lessons learned in 2017…we can see an outline for a flip.

If turnout in conservative parts of the district fall AND college students are agitated enough to make it down the ballot AND the Democrats can recruit a good candidate, you have the same ingredients for a potential flip.

Summary

Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying Rep Clemons or Senator Perry will lose.  Both will enjoy the benefits of incumbency and virtually unlimited resources at their disposal.   In addition, the Democrat party is in a complete financial mess and likely will be playing catch up and in no position to spend “freely”.  And, If the Bernie-Bros show their butts, it is likely to be seen in good ol’ Alachua County.  BUT….

There is a higher than normal probability these two seats are ‘in play’.  In addition,  Kayser Enneking, the Democrat for Senate, has raised $116,000 (in comparison Senator Perry has raised $136,000), and I am told the Democrats have a good candidate lined up to challenge Rep Clemons (note:  not the one currently filed).  On paper, these two Democrat challengers don’t appear to be the normal perennial candidates offered up by the local DEC.

So, will we see a wave in my local area?  Will we see a wave in my local area driven by those damn meddling kids?  Stay tuned..we are about to find out.

 

Data

The data is below, and let me know if you see any errors.  Thanks,

download data from github.

Florida Senate Districts by Clinton / Trump

h_distpotus_dpotus_rundervotess_dss_rss_npapotus_d_win_bss_r_win_bD_win_R_winrep_overperform
district 400.580.42-175120.410.510.0911110.09
district 390.550.45-200730.460.540.0011110.09
district 360.570.43-134010.450.550.0011110.12
district 180.530.477540.410.480.1011110.01
district 110.660.34-964161.000.000.001010-0.34
district 370.610.39-98360.490.460.0610100.07
district 130.610.39-23560.580.420.0010100.03
district 190.660.34-99760.670.330.001010-0.01
district 150.620.38-182840.590.410.0010100.02
district 340.600.40-234870.630.370.001010-0.03
district 300.560.44-75540.540.460.0010100.02
district 380.770.23-260540.750.000.251010-0.23
district 30.540.4633960.670.330.001010-0.13
district 220.470.53-283200.470.530.0001010.00
district 10.330.67-996920.001.000.0001010.33
district 250.440.56-42000.350.650.0001010.09
district 270.400.60-732660.001.000.0001010.40
district 280.380.62-673360.001.000.0001010.38
district 170.400.60-69880.380.620.0001010.02
district 230.430.57-137620.410.590.0001010.01
district 140.400.60-544020.000.680.3201010.09
district 120.340.66-1406560.001.000.0001010.34
district 80.500.5084740.470.530.0001010.02
district 70.380.62-427860.360.640.0001010.02
district 160.430.57-1025620.001.000.0001010.43

 

h_distpotus_dpotus_rundervotesh_dsh_rsh_npapotus_d_win_bsh_r_win_bD_win_R_winrep_overperformMember
district 210.500.50-32130.460.540.0011110.04Chuck Clemons
district 630.550.45-20270.490.510.0011110.06Shawn Harrison
district 1050.550.45-152690.480.520.0011110.07Carlos Trujillo
district 300.540.46-82990.470.530.0011110.07Bob Cortes
district 1200.510.49-17510.430.570.0011110.08Holly Merrill Raschein
district 1150.550.45-30710.460.540.0011110.09Michael Bileca
district 1100.540.46-38150.450.550.0011110.09Jose Oliva
district 470.570.43-63500.470.530.0011110.10Mike Miller
district 1110.530.47-50920.410.590.0011110.12Bryan Avila
district 1030.600.40-21850.470.530.0011110.13Manny Diaz
district 1190.570.43-40970.430.570.0011110.14Jeanette Nunez
district 1160.530.47-57860.380.620.0011110.15Daniel Anthony Perez
district 910.600.40-312201.000.000.001010-0.40
district 900.610.39-255801.000.000.001010-0.39
district 430.750.25-113941.000.000.001010-0.25
district 80.770.23-89621.000.000.001010-0.23
district 460.840.16-94521.000.000.001010-0.16
district 480.740.26-85620.800.000.201010-0.26
district 490.640.36-97150.690.000.311010-0.36
district 680.540.46-53120.560.440.001010-0.02
district 700.740.26-87790.760.240.001010-0.02
district 140.650.35-101110.670.330.001010-0.02
district 90.550.4515260.560.440.001010-0.01
district 860.580.42-37390.570.430.0010100.00
district 1040.640.36-38510.620.380.0010100.01
district 1130.690.31-46740.650.350.0010100.04
district 130.650.35-76260.600.400.0010100.05
district 1140.570.43-30360.510.490.0010100.06
district 1180.560.44-38690.500.500.0010100.06
district 1120.630.37-39730.530.470.0010100.10
district 100.260.74-14910.360.640.000101-0.10
district 360.390.61-1210.490.510.000101-0.10
district 230.330.67-5500.380.620.000101-0.05
district 350.360.64-8820.380.620.000101-0.03
district 510.390.6180.400.600.000101-0.01
district 830.450.55-49880.460.540.000101-0.01
district 190.260.74-19390.270.730.000101-0.01
district 240.370.63-41720.370.630.0001010.00
district 410.470.53-22420.470.530.0001010.00
district 820.380.62-121610.370.630.0001010.00
district 740.380.62-39900.370.630.0001010.01
district 560.360.64-16510.350.650.0001010.01
district 530.440.56-10070.430.570.0001010.01
district 660.430.57-56540.420.580.0001010.01
district 250.390.61-145310.380.620.0001010.01
district 730.370.63-45110.350.650.0001010.02
district 390.400.60-20260.380.620.0001010.02
district 20.410.59-13830.390.610.0001010.02
district 400.430.57-11900.410.590.0001010.03
district 270.440.56-72690.410.590.0001010.03
district 790.420.58-114490.380.510.110101-0.07
district 930.500.50-37400.460.540.0001010.03
district 850.460.54-40530.420.580.0001010.04
district 420.480.52-16460.450.550.0001010.04
district 590.500.50-500.460.540.0001010.04
district 580.460.54-41010.420.580.0001010.04
district 690.480.52-3800.430.570.0001010.05
district 500.480.52-21280.430.570.0001010.06
district 720.480.52-38100.420.580.0001010.06
district 600.490.51520.430.570.0001010.06
district 670.480.52-52470.410.590.0001010.07
district 650.430.57-55550.350.650.0001010.08
district 50.220.78-7990.000.680.320101-0.10
district 40.260.74-165730.001.000.0001010.26
district 60.270.73-106800.001.000.0001010.27
district 180.280.72-190680.001.000.0001010.28
district 110.300.70-176340.001.000.0001010.30
district 1060.350.65-367030.001.000.0001010.35
district 10.350.65-43130.000.760.2401010.12
district 760.360.64-146940.000.740.2601010.10
district 540.380.62-191750.001.000.0001010.38
district 800.380.62-352920.001.000.0001010.38
district 310.390.61-88330.000.730.2701010.12
district 160.400.60-213600.001.000.0001010.40
district 120.420.58-186680.001.000.0001010.42
district 150.450.55-255590.001.000.0001010.45
district 280.480.52-112090.000.640.3601010.12
district 260.490.51-163620.530.470.000000-0.04

About Alex Patton