TV DMAs by County

I was looking for a data-set this morning for a GIS project, and I thought the data would be relatively easy to find.  It wasn’t. I did find what I wanted in one case, but someone was charging $199 for the data. So, I spent a couple of hours researching, compiling and cleaning data. I offer it to you for free and in the name of political analysis.  Enjoy! Data Set: TV DMAs by Counties […]

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Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?

As always, some of the best questions come from readers of the blog.  “Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?” came to us via email. It is also timely with the recent discussion from Kristol and polling information from Data Targeting. Polling Third Parties In a traditional poll, pollsters may ask a question like, “Would you consider supporting a third party candidate? Yes or No?”  Traditionally, because the question is asked like this, support […]

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How to read a Political Poll!

The sheer number of polls this political cycle is amazing.  The sheer number of bad polls this political cycle is stunning. Regardless, the manner the press reports on polling is just God-awful. Biggest Polling Complaint My largest complaint is that the amount of uncertainty in a poll is not reported, is under-reported or misunderstood. A poll is only a sample (hopefully of a random one that is well constructed) of a population.  When any pollster moves […]

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Time for Change Model (Implications for local politics)

This week Politico featured an article The End of the 2016 Election Is Closer Than You Think    The Politico article is a fantastic read, but doesn’t go into the particulars that I would like to explore. Yes, the Politico article in someways scooped a theme I have been working on for sometime on this blog.  In the past I have been exploring the formation of political environments and asking “Do Campaigns Really Matter?” Topic 1: […]

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What causes bumps in polls and polling?

An astute listener to the radio show, the Ward Scott Files, that deals with political strategy and polling asks, “What causes bumps in polling?” Bumps in Polling Often after a candidate announces they are running for President, or after a major party’s political convention or some other major event, we will observe a bump in polling numbers.  In most cases, if we wait several weeks, the bump will disappear. What are we actually observing with these “bumps” in […]

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2014 Florida Competitive House Seats

In 2014, all 120 members of the Florida State House of Representatives stood for election. Of the 120, 47 seats were uncontested or decided with a primary race only. Of the 73 general elections held, 13 had the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate with 10% of each other in total votes for the general election. *Data is at bottom of post

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The Recipe for Success to Break Inertia in places of Hegemony

I anticipate some blow-back on this blog post, but “since my intent is to write something useful to whoever understands it, it has appeared to me more fitting to go directly to the effectual truth of the thing than to the imagination of it” (Machiavelli 61). In a previous post, we dared to ponder the question, “Do political campaigns really matter?”  We looked at the curious case in Alachua County where two Republican campaigns were […]

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2016 Presidential – The Path to 270 – part 3

2016 Battle Ground States

In part 1 of The Path to 270, we looked at a logical starting position or “Strong Favors” for each party’s electoral college map. In part 2 of The Path to 270, we looked at the remaining states and the trend lines for those states.  We also began to noticed the glaring importance of Florida to the GOP. In part 3 of The Path to 270, we will reconsider our assumptions and look at possible […]

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2016 Presidential – The Path to 270 – part 2

2016 Presidential Map contested states

Yesterday in part 1 of the path to 270, we took a look at the starting electoral vote scoreboard. Here is a recap of the “Strong Favors” or states that have been won by 1 party for each of the last 4 Presidential elections. 2016 Starting Scoreboard Party Strong Favor 270 Shortage Republicans 175 95 Democrats 242 28    2016 Contested States Today, we take a look at all states that are not considered “Strong […]

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2016 Presidential – The Path to 270 – part 1

2016 Electoral College Strong Favors

The 2016 presidential campaigns are heating up quickly, and the path to 270 or victory for any presidential campaign is going to be very interesting. This post starts a multi-part blog post on 2016 presidential politics and strategy. The Basics of the Electoral College As you know, there are 538 total electoral votes in the electoral college; therefore it takes 270 electoral college votes to become President of the United States.   (CLICK – If you […]

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