Thinking about 2018 with a potential matchup of Rick Scott v Senator Bill Nelson, I was messing around with scripts to combine data sets and came up with vote totals for the 2014 campaign for Florida Governor featuring Rick Scott v Charlie Crist by Florida DMA (Television Markets). Here you go…..I may write later on what this possibly means for 2018, but for now, it is provided as is for your enjoyment.  

Read more »

How divided is Florida?

I went to bed last night thinking about about DecisionDeskHQ’s attempt to make a nationwide precinct map.  It is a challenging and cool project. Thinking about this as I slumbered, I awoke wondering just ‘how divided are we in Florida at the precinct level’?   Thanks to the great state of Florida, we have precinct level results, and over morning coffee, I found my answer. The answer:  Pretty damn divided.   If you consider a precinct […]

Read more »

TV DMAs by County

I was looking for a data-set this morning for a GIS project, and I thought the data would be relatively easy to find.  It wasn’t. I did find what I wanted in one case, but someone was charging $199 for the data. So, I spent a couple of hours researching, compiling and cleaning data. I offer it to you for free and in the name of political analysis.  Enjoy! Data Set: TV DMAs by Counties […]

Read more »

Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?

As always, some of the best questions come from readers of the blog.  “Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?” came to us via email. It is also timely with the recent discussion from Kristol and polling information from Data Targeting. Polling Third Parties In a traditional poll, pollsters may ask a question like, “Would you consider supporting a third party candidate? Yes or No?”  Traditionally, because the question is asked like this, support […]

Read more »

How to read a Political Poll!

The sheer number of polls this political cycle is amazing.  The sheer number of bad polls this political cycle is stunning. Regardless, the manner the press reports on polling is just God-awful. Biggest Polling Complaint My largest complaint is that the amount of uncertainty in a poll is not reported, is under-reported or misunderstood. A poll is only a sample (hopefully of a random one that is well constructed) of a population.  When any pollster moves […]

Read more »

Time for Change Model (Implications for local politics)

This week Politico featured an article The End of the 2016 Election Is Closer Than You Think    The Politico article is a fantastic read, but doesn’t go into the particulars that I would like to explore. Yes, the Politico article in someways scooped a theme I have been working on for sometime on this blog.  In the past I have been exploring the formation of political environments and asking “Do Campaigns Really Matter?” Topic 1: […]

Read more »

What causes bumps in polls and polling?

An astute listener to the radio show, the Ward Scott Files, that deals with political strategy and polling asks, “What causes bumps in polling?” Bumps in Polling Often after a candidate announces they are running for President, or after a major party’s political convention or some other major event, we will observe a bump in polling numbers.  In most cases, if we wait several weeks, the bump will disappear. What are we actually observing with these “bumps” in […]

Read more »

2014 Florida Competitive House Seats

In 2014, all 120 members of the Florida State House of Representatives stood for election. Of the 120, 47 seats were uncontested or decided with a primary race only. Of the 73 general elections held, 13 had the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate with 10% of each other in total votes for the general election. *Data is at bottom of post

Read more »

The Recipe for Success to Break Inertia in places of Hegemony

I anticipate some blow-back on this blog post, but “since my intent is to write something useful to whoever understands it, it has appeared to me more fitting to go directly to the effectual truth of the thing than to the imagination of it” (Machiavelli 61). In a previous post, we dared to ponder the question, “Do political campaigns really matter?”  We looked at the curious case in Alachua County where two Republican campaigns were […]

Read more »

2016 Presidential – The Path to 270 – part 3

2016 Battle Ground States

In part 1 of The Path to 270, we looked at a logical starting position or “Strong Favors” for each party’s electoral college map. In part 2 of The Path to 270, we looked at the remaining states and the trend lines for those states.  We also began to noticed the glaring importance of Florida to the GOP. In part 3 of The Path to 270, we will reconsider our assumptions and look at possible […]

Read more »