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Alex Patton is a weekly guest on the Ward Scott Files for “Political Nerd Tuesday” : a weekly exploration of all things related to political strategy, political polling, and political research.

Below are the show notes prepared for the show.  The show notes are prepared ahead of the show and do not reflect extemporaneous discussions, but do contain links and additional information to topics discussed.

You can listen to a podcast of the show at the Podcast Page for the Ward Scott Files.  The podcasts are normally posted within hours of the completion of the show.

SHOW NOTES 6/23/2015

We spent considerable time discussing the New Republic’ Suzy Khimm’s article, “The Obama Gap: A Case Study in Electoral Failure.”  This is an excellent, fair assessment of politics and the national level and at the Florida level.

We also spent some time discussing John Ward’s “The Koch brothers and the Republican Party go to war — with each other”.  This is an excellent article speaking to the fight over data and the role of the national party and other well financed groups.

These two articles combined for a robust discussion about the differences between the two major parties, the roles each play and the differences between them.

Love the hear your feed back on the two articles and today’s discussion.

pareto - effort

I’ve been thinking about the amount of effort required to have an opinion. What drove this strain of thought: I was having a conversation with a subject matter expert and I voiced my opinion. He replied, “That is certainly an opinion, but to have an accurate opinion, you need to do a lot more work.” How true. The amount of effort to have an opinion is zero.  My 11 year old son will have an opinion about anything […]

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Facebook, I partly blame you!

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I recently posted to facebook the following: Facebook is curating so much now that I am having a difficult time finding value with their product. 1) I have enjoyed FB for reconnecting me with a lot of people I went to High School with in Germany or other military duty stations. Some of these are lower intensity “friendships” in that we communicate infrequently, but I still enjoy knowing what is going in their lives and […]

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debate_chart_national

An astute listener to the radio show, the Ward Scott Files, that deals with political strategy and polling asks, “What causes bumps in polling?” Bumps in Polling Often after a candidate announces they are running for President, or after a major party’s political convention or some other major event, we will observe a bump in polling numbers.  In most cases, if we wait several weeks, the bump will disappear. What are we actually observing with these “bumps” in […]

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Ward Scott Files

BUMPS IN POLLS Go back to address Jennifer’s question on what causes bumps in polls. A paper out of Columbia and Stanford that I came across. The people choosing to opt into a poll increases with enthusiasm from those supporting a candidate. “It seems implausible that many voters will switch support from one party to the other because of minor campaign events.1 “ “Or, alternatively, the surveys taken before and after the debate were capturing […]

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Ward Scott Files

Jacksonville Mayor Race – election today Too close to call. Illustrates importance of Florida – national players PPP Poll PPP’s national Republican poll for May continues to find Scott Walker leading the field, but it’s tightly clustered and his support has actually dropped two consecutive surveys now. Walker’s at 18% to 13% for Marco Rubio, 12% each for Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% for Ted Cruz, 9% for Rand Paul, […]

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Ward Scott Files

Alex Patton is a weekly guest on the Ward Scott Files for “Political Nerd Tuesday” : a weekly exploration of all things related to political strategy, political polling, and political research. Below are the show notes prepared for the show.  The show notes are prepared ahead of the show and do not reflect extemporaneous discussions, but do contain links and additional information to topics discussed. You can listen to a podcast of the show at the […]

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just-facts

In 2014, all 120 members of the Florida State House of Representatives stood for election. Of the 120, 47 seats were uncontested or decided with a primary race only. Of the 73 general elections held, 13 had the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate with 10% of each other in total votes for the general election. *Data is at bottom of post

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deviate

I anticipate some blow-back on this blog post, but “since my intent is to write something useful to whoever understands it, it has appeared to me more fitting to go directly to the effectual truth of the thing than to the imagination of it” (Machiavelli 61). In a previous post, we dared to ponder the question, “Do political campaigns really matter?”  We looked at the curious case in Alachua County where two Republican campaigns were […]

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OM-website-press-logos-WSJ

Florida Republican consultant was featured in the Wall Street Journal regarding the void from Senator Marco Rubio’s run for President. Rubio’s Departure to Put Florida Senate Seat in Play May 3, 2015 By Arian Campo-Flores   “We’re now getting into the tier of candidates with little name ID statewide,” said Alex Patton, a Republican political consultant in Gainesville. That means a potentially drawn-out primary contest, he said. Though Mr. Patton said he expects the eventual […]

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