I am publishing my show notes on ozeanmedia.com
Move over S.C., Fla. picks the GOP nominee
The good folks at Smart Politics, the politics site from the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs, has a new report examining how each state has fared over the last 40 years in voting for the eventual Republican presidential nominee. Just nine — Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin just nine have backed the eventual Republican nominee in primaries or caucuses each time — and, Florida is the biggest standout.
Here’s the full report, and here’s an excerpt:
Florida is the most notable of these states as it has tended to hold its primary while the GOP nomination was still in doubt – particularly in recent cycles.
The Sunshine State’s primary was held in the second week of March from 1976 through the 2000 cycle and in the last week of January in 2008 and 2012. Overall, the state hosted one of the first five Republican primaries in 1976, 1980, 1988, 2008, and 2012.
(Primary dates from 1984 and 2004 are ignored in this analysis as incumbent Republican presidents did not face bona fide opposition in those cycles).
Along the way, Florida Republicans narrowly backed Gerald Ford over Ronald Reagan in 1976 by 5.6 points, John McCain over Mitt Romney in 2008 by 5.0 points, and Romney over Gingrich in 2012 by 14.5 points.
THE CRIMINALIZATION OF POLITICS
We are in real danger of criminalizing ordinary politics, if not there already.
We are seeing more and more cases of this.
The state has enormous power, resources and discretion to go after people they don’t like politically.
When we see government policing units and justice departments going after political actors, we should be scared.
The amount of power the state has or a zealot of a state prosecutor has is frightening.
Let’s start with how we define corruption?
Private Gain using taxpayers resources?
- Bad judgement, poor decision making is NOT criminal.
- Being stupid is NOT Criminal.
- Taking donations from people is NOT criminal.
- Helping out friends, constituents, even DONORS is not criminal.
- Following the law, even though you may not like the law, is NOT criminal.
In theory, the distinction turns on whether the recipient accepts the donation with the understanding that he or she will perform official acts in exchange.
People give money so that a politician / party will take the call!
KNOWING WINKS AND NODS standard
If the jury thinks it sees “knowing winks and nods” (these words actually appear in the jury instructions in McDonnell’s case), it can render a verdict that will send the public official to prison for a long time.
TOM DELAY CASE in Texas
Corporate donations were/are illegal in Texas. Corporations gave to the party and money was moved around.
Rick Perry case in Texas
Better to leave the criminal cases to clear violations of the law – freezers full of cash.
If FDLE starts investigating you, there is NOTHING you can do.
If a rogue prosecutor decides he doesn’t like your activity – there is NOTHING you can do.
FDLE turning into a political operation is awful.
FBI turned into a political operation is scary.
BIOMASS, – their decision making was awful, their politics were awful, — they played hardball – but they new the law. NOTHING so far looks criminal in nature. Just a mess.
Solar FIT program – several people personally benefited from it, but NOTHING so far looks criminal in nature. Just a mess.
WE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL WHEN WE ACCUSE SOMEONE OF CRIMINAL ACTIVITY.
Bush will also be dogged by advocates of campaign finance regulation. The Campaign Legal Center, which supports aggressive regulation of money and politics, has already complained to the FEC that Bush is currently flouting the law by raising money for his super PAC while acting like a candidate for president. Others are on guard, too.
“In our view, we are headed for an epic national scandal,” said Fred Wertheimer, president of the pro-regulation group Democracy 21. “We intend to carefully and closely monitor all the candidates and their super PACs, because they will eventually provide numerous examples of violations.”
It’s up to only the Justice Department, because the FEC for all practical purposes … will not enforce the law,” Wertheimer said.