By Chris Karpowitz and Tali Mendelberg

Kirsten Gillibrand, Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Linda McMahon, Kristen Van Ogtrop, Tamron Hall, Charlie Kammerer, Evelyn Webster, Michelle Peranteau and Nancy Gibbs attend the TIME and Real Simple’s Women & Success event at the Park Hyatt on Oct. 1 in New York. (Larry Busacca/Getty Images for Time Inc.)

Joshua Tucker: The following is a guest post from political scientists Chris Karpowitz (BYU) and Tali Mendelberg (Princeton).

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A recent flurry of publicity for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s new book, “Off the Sidelines: Raise Your Voice, Change the World,” has focused on the entrenched sexism in the U.S. Senate.  Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) …read more

Via:: Monkey Cage

By Erin K. Jenne

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) walks onto the stage holding a rifle before speaking at the Conservative Political Action Committee annual conference at National Harbor, Md., in March 2014. (Susan Walsh/Associated Press)

The following is a guest post by political scientist Erin K. Jenne of Central European University.

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The tea party movement has been called out for many things, not least of which is championing positions that would make Barry Goldwater blush. This begs the question: What separates the tea party from Republicans or from the conservative movement at large?

Analysts have conducted surveys of self-identified tea party …read more

Via:: Monkey Cage

By Nate Silver

silver-datalab-pollskew-1

This year’s Senate election is close. Republicans have the clearer path to a majority, but it’s a treacherous one. Republicans are favored in Iowa and Colorado, for example, but not by much. If Democrats eked out victories in those states and picked up the seat in Kansas (by persuading independent Greg Orman to caucus with them), they could control 50 Senate seats and keep their majority. Democrats could also still pick up seats from the GOP in Georgia and Kentucky. And Republican gains in Arkansas and Louisiana are probable but far from certain.

So, we’ve not quite reached the …read more

Via:: 538 – Political