Science, Doubt, and Hucksters

Science, Doubt, and Hucksters

This weekend I took my son to see the movie Oppenheimer.  Our car-ride discussion centered around the process the scientists went through and how vicious their disagreements turned.   My son was floored by how ‘teammates’ were so ‘adversarial.’  I said welcome to ‘science.’

Unless you have served on a local committee to name a new church pastor, you haven’t seen petty fights until you observe the academic arena.  But here is the thing, the “fight” is the process of science. 

Science is never settled; doubt and skepticism are always part of the process.   When a new paper comes out, even if it challenges conventional wisdom only slightly, scientists tend to tear it apart.  They rejoice in dissecting the methodologies, assumptions, and conclusions.  

The uncertainty is especially pronounced in the social sciences because human behavior is so messy and difficult to replicate. 

Recently, I listened to a podcast ironically entitled “Not Another Politics Podcast” produced by the University of Chicago.  It was an interview with the authors, David E. Broockman and Joshua Kalla about their paper “Consuming cross-cutting media causes learning and moderates attitudes: A field experiment with Fox News viewers” 

The hosts had an insightful interview with the lead author and in fairness discussed the caveats and potential additional research needed.  After the interview ended, the three hosts spent the next half or so of the podcast expanding on the criticisms of the paper’s findings. 

If you don’t understand the process, one would think the hosts were jerks.  Rather than being jerks, the hosts were attempting to understand where this experiment fit into the body of literature, what questions are unanswered, and what additional research should / needs to be done to add nuance and enrich the body of knowledge.

And yes, this process is messy, and yet it is normal and expected in the academic world. 

The scientific process

  • Make Observations
  • Ask Questions / Develop Hypotheses
  • Test Hypotheses (experiments, surveys, case studies, observational studies, meta-studies)
  • Analyze Data
  • Draw Conclusions
  • Communicate findings
  • Start all over

For academics, this is the process:  Nerd fights, and I appreciate it.  In fact, I love it.  Over time, it is this process that leads to a richer understanding, nullification of errors, and scientific advances.    

At times, the search for knowledge turns personal and petty, but most of the time it is a good-faith effort to advance the entire body of knowledge or at least win a debate.    

However,  the scientific process allows charlatans, hucksters, and scoundrels to feed the public or their tribe bullshit. 

These hacks use the uncertainty inherent in the process to disparage the knowledge, the process, and the participants.  And frustratingly, they often know better. 

It is this exact process that allows bad-faith actors like the good ol tobacco companies to operate.

COVID and Scientific Process

COVID is an example.  When COVID was new, there was a lot of uncertainty.  When COVID vaccines were being developed and new, there was a lot more uncertainty.  And as COVID matures and mutates, we start the entire process over again….and again….and again.

Green Energy and Scientific Process

It is also one of the larger mistakes advocates make when discussing green energy and climate change: “The science is settled!” is absolutely a strategic communication mistake.   By definition, the science is never settled. 

Anyone can point to any number of esoteric debates about climate models, data, and study methodologies that demonstrate “doubt” about climate science.   And each time one does, they can rightfully mock those that exclaim the “science is settled!”

An interesting example is a deeper dive into researcher Roger Pielke’s career.     

It’s the Intent

While questioning science is critical to the process, the intent matters. 

Is one trying to suggest additional lines of inquiry, or write a clickbait article to serve a political purpose, or enrage you on cable news? 

Admittedly, communicating about science is difficult.    However, one thing is certain – the scientific process is never settled.   

Conclusion

I learned a lot in grad school, nothing more important than how to be a healthy skeptic and that studies are not to be accepted at face value AND yet that doesn’t mean they are false.  Because the other critical question I learned in grad school “When faced with two seemingly contradictory findings, ask yourself, under what conditions can both findings be true?”

Welcome to science son.  It is vicious and works…eventually.

Additional Reading

For political nerds see Alan Abramowitz versus Morris Fiorina on polarization.  Essentially, Fiorina argues that polarization is largely limited to the political elite, while Abramowitz argues that it has spread to the mass public.  They have spent years sniping at each other over data sources, measurement, interpretation of data, the unit of analysis, and seemingly the color yellow.    

Ozean Media Announces @ ShevrinJones as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

Ozean Media Announces @ ShevrinJones as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

Ozean Media Announces @ ShevrinJones as Winner of The ‘@’ Award 

Rep. Shevrin “Shev” Jones is Recognized as the Twitter Power User for Florida Senate

Alachua, FL – May 17, 2023– Ozean Media, a political affairs firm specializing in research, data, and media, announces @ShevrinJones (Senator Shevrin “Shev” Jones) as the winner of The ‘@’ Award for the Florida Senate.

“Senator Jones is the clear leader among his peers in the Florida Senate in the use of Twitter,” said Alex Patton, Managing Partner of Ozean Media. “Senator Jones was neck and neck with Leader Book, but never relinquished his lead throughout the period of measurement. If other elected officials are looking to up their Twitter game, Senator Jones is a model worth studying.”

“It is no secret that significant political communication has been happening on Twitter, and Ozean Media is studying the various ways elected officials use or don’t use Twitter. The best in class rather than only broadcasting are interacting with people outside the political bubble and are using rich media such as images and videos”, concluded Patton

“We knew studying Twitter at a time of massive changes on the platform would be risky, but we believe it was worth it. We believe we collected the largest sample of tweets from Florida Legislators to date, and we have gained a greater understanding of how elected officials are using Twitter,” said Ben Torpey, Ozean Media Consultant.

The ‘@’ Award will be presented at to Senator Jones at his convenience in late May 2023. More information about the award, the final top 10 ranking, week-to-week standings, and the final report can be found at: Twitter Final Report – 2023 FL Legislature. 

About Ozean Media

Ozean Media is a strategic partner in political affairs, providing consulting and public relations services to drive the movement of audiences toward a specific policy or cause. Ozean leverages research, data, message development, and media to achieve our clients’ goals. More information can be found at ozeanmedia.com.

About The ‘@’ Award

The ‘@’ Award recognizes the top Twitter user among Florida’s House of Representatives and Senate based on a proprietary algorithm that weighs factors such as follower count, tweets, retweets, likes, and engagement. The award was originally scheduled to collect data until May 5, 2023, but Twitter’s API changes restricted access to data, so the award is based on data collected through Feb 26 – April 28, 2023.

Ozean Media Announces @AnnaforFlorida as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

Ozean Media Announces @AnnaforFlorida as Winner of The ‘@’ Award

Ozean Media Announces @AnnaforFlorida as Winner of The ‘@’ Award 

Rep. Anna V. Eskamani is Recognized as the Twitter Power User for the Florida House of Representatives

Alachua, FL – May 17, 2023– Ozean Media, a political affairs firm specializing in research, data, and media, announces @AnnaforFlorida (Representative Anna Eskamani) as the winner of The ‘@’ Award for Florida House of Representatives.

“Rep. Eskamani is the clear leader among her peers in the Florida House in the use of Twitter,” said Alex Patton, Managing Partner of Ozean Media. “She not only broadcasts her own messages, but also engages with others on the platform. If other elected officials are looking to up their Twitter game, Rep. Eskamani is a model worth studying.”

“It is no secret that significant political communication has been happening on Twitter, and Ozean Media is studying the various ways elected officials use or don’t use Twitter. The best in class rather than only broadcasting are interacting with people outside the political bubble and are using rich media such as images and videos”, concluded Patton.

“We knew studying Twitter at a time of massive changes on the platform would be risky, but we believe it was worth it. We believe we collected the largest sample of tweets from Florida Legislators to date, and we have gained a greater understanding of how elected officials are using Twitter,” said Ben Torpey, Ozean Media Consultant.

The ‘@’ Award will be presented at to Representative Anna Eskamani at her convenience in late May 2023. More information about the award, the final top 10 ranking, week-to-week standings, and the final report can be found at: Twitter Final Report 2023 FL Legislature

About Ozean Media

Ozean Media is a strategic partner in political affairs, providing consulting and public relations services to drive the movement of audiences toward a specific policy or cause. Ozean leverages research, data, message development, and media to achieve our clients’ goals. More information can be found at ozeanmedia.comhttps://ozeanmedia.com.

About The ‘@’ Award

The ‘@’ Award recognizes the top Twitter user among Florida’s House of Representatives and Senate based on a proprietary algorithm that weighs factors such as follower count, tweets, retweets, likes, and engagement. The award was originally scheduled to collect data until May 5, 2023, but Twitter’s API changes restricted access to data, so the award is based on data collected through Feb 26 – April 28, 2023.

2023 Florida Legislature and Twitter Use

2023 Florida Legislature and Twitter Use

Methodology

Given a specified time interval (March 5 – May 7 or Florida Session’ sine die whichever is later) and a list of Twitter handles, the algorithm assigns a tailored weighting to variables including tweets, retweets replies, follower count, following count, and effective reach. The initial ranking was done for a period of the week before Florida’s legislative session started or Feb 26 – March 4.

Unfortunately, the period for rankings ended on April 28 due to changes in Twitter’s API that drastically changed and reduced access to tweets and other data on the platform.

Therefore, final rankings were decided using the period of Feb 27 – April 28, 2023.
Our Twitter algorithm, while recognizing Follower Count and number of new tweets, also attempted to recognize different uses of the platform – to include other activities other than simply broadcasting tweets.

Key Findings

  • Representative Anna Eskamani is the Power User of Twitter in the Florida House.
  • Senator Shevrin “Shev” Jones is the Power User of Twitter in the Florida Senate.
  • Power Users use Twitter differently – Power Users interact not only broadcast.

While the algorithm had to take follower count into consideration and raw number of new tweets, it also indicates a correlation between higher follower counts and different types of tweets.

Members that not only tweeted, but also replied and retweeted others, correlate with higher follower counts. It appears, those that have been able to grow a large audience are interacting with other users, not only posting and using the tool primarily as a broadcast medium.

Members that not only tweeted, but included media (photos, video, and GIFs), correlate with higher follower counts.

Final Ranking

Representative Anna Eskamani (D, FL 52) and Senator Shevrin “Shev” Jones (D, FL 34) are awarded The @ Award recognizing their “Power Use” of Twitter during the 2023 Regular Session of the Florida Legislature.

Both Representative Eskamani and Senator Jones lead the pack in Twitter usage from the beginning, and they never looked back. Other elected officials vied for the 2nd through 10th spots, but Eskamai and Jones were significantly ahead of their peers.

2023 Final House Rankings

Twitter Name Ranking
@AnnaForFlorida 1
@micheleforfl 2
@AngieNixon 3
@RAlexAndradeFL 4
@DanDaley 5
@Gantt4Florida 6
@SpencerRoachFL 7
@BernyJacques 8
@FentriceForFL 9
@ChipLaMarca 10

2023 Final Senate Rankings

Twitter Name Ranking
@ShevrinJones 1
@LeaderBookFL 2
@loriberman 3
@LindaStewartFL 4
@senpizzo 5
@IleanaGarciaUSA 6
@debbie_mayfield 7
@Kathleen4SWFL 8
@TinaPolsky 9
@GovGoneWild 10

Content

Content varies with large blocs of “Thanks fellow member x for passing the/my bill through committee/chamber”, holiday greetings, and tweets on the abortion issue.  

Below are word clouds of the tweets of House and Senate members.

House Tweet Word Cloud

Senate Tweet Word Cloud

Tagging/Mentions

When elected officials @ someone, they are most likely to @ a fellow Legislator or elected official.

The second most likely entity is a Florida press entity.

A cursory review of the tweet data indicates precious few interactions with constituents.

Hashtags

House and Senate members used Twitter hashtags infrequently during the session. The most frequently used hashtag was “#latergram.”

Most prolific Tweeters

As one would expect, the algorithm rewarded elected officials that tweeted often.

In the House, Representative Eskamai was the top tweeter with 768 total tweets.

In the Senate, Senator Linda Stewart (D, FL 13 – final ranking #4) was the most prolific tweeter with 364 total tweets.

However, Senator Stewart’s relatively lower follower count prevented her from climbing higher in the rankings.

Largest Following

Representative Eskamani shines when it comes to follower count with 90,523 followers.

Senator Jones lead the way in the Senate with a follower count of 35,004.

To put these numbers in context, the highest follower count of any elected official in Florida is Senator Marco Rubio at 4,518,971, followed closely by Governor Ron DeSantis with 4,139,420.

However, Rep. Eskamani has more followers than half of Florida’s Congressional delegation, and Rep. Eskamani and Senator Jones have more followers than a majority of Florida’s statewide elected cabinet members.

Interactivity of Tweets (tweets by type)

Our algorithm rewarded elected officials for interacting on Twitter rather than simply broadcasting. The algorithm assigned weight for Replies and ReTweets.

This is one of the main reasons elected officials with smaller follower counts saw increases in their over ranking.

For example, Senator Linda Stewart (final ranking 4) had a follower count of 3,848; however, 46% of her tweets were replies or retweets. Representative Alex Andrade (final ranking 4) has a follower count of 5,717 however, over 62% of his tweets were replies or retweets.

Media Use

On average, 40% of tweets of the top 10 Power Users in each chamber contained media (photo, video, or animated GIF). Of the tweets that contained media, the vast majority (80%) were photos.

Platform Use

While the algorithm did not use ‘platform’ as ranking criteria, the information was collected.

Over 85% of the tweets sent from the top 10 Power Users were sent using Twitter for iPhone.

The remaining 15% were sent using the Twitter web app and Twitter for iPad.

Few rely on third-party apps like TweetDeck or Hootsuite. However, those not in the top 10 appear to use third-party apps at a higher rate.

While this needs more research, it is our theory, higher usage of third-party apps may be an indication that staff is managing social media accounts rather than the member. We observe an increase in the use of third-party platforms with “official press accounts” of Florida’s Congressional delegation.

Final Thoughts

It is of note tinged with sadness that Twitter is making its API cost prohibitive to researchers.   

Without underwriting, it is unlikely that additional studies can be conducted, and we think that is a shame.   

2023 Florida Legislature and Twitter Use

The @Award and Twitter’s API

It was fun while it lasted, but our Florida Legislature Tweet Tracker is coming to an end.

With one week left in the regular session of Florida’s legislature, Ozean was notified that Twitter has made changes to its API that have drastically restricted third-party applications’ access to tweets and other data on the platform. In response, we are no longer able to collect the data needed for the ranking algorithm.

As of this morning, we are unable to continue to collect data from Twitter. As a result, we are finalizing the @Award today and will no longer be able to track tweets from Florida legislators.

We knew that entering this project, we risked being at the whims of Elon Musk, who acquired Twitter in October 2022.  We are sadden to see our fears realized. 

While we are disappointed that we can no longer track tweets from Florida legislators, we are grateful for the opportunity to have done so for the 2023 regular session.

We hope that Twitter will reconsider its decision to restrict third-party access to its data.

In the meantime, we will finalize and issue a final report in the coming weeks.