How productive is Congress?

Over the Thanksgiving break, I figured NOTHING could be any more frustrating than watching my Gators, so I decided to begin to tackle learning R. Part of teaching myself R is playing around with an interesting data set – Congressional Bills.  “This public resource provides information about more than 400,000 bills introduced in the U.S. Congress, currently 1947-2008, along with extensive information about each bill’s progress and sponsor.” I just started with a simple question, […]

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GOP Presidential Nomination Process

The GOP nomination process is one governed by the RNC and individual states…..and people in funny hats. Through this primary process, candidates are awarded delegates by a complex, state-by-state maze. There are 2,470 delegates in total, meaning the first candidate to win 1,236 delegates will win the GOP nomination.  Easy, right? Just wait, it’s a lot more complicated. State GOP Delegates The RNC awards states delegates according to the following rules: For jurisdictions (states) with […]

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The Donald is a Buffoon and Net Worth

Stop me if you have heard this before, a funny thing happened this week on talk radio. As you may know, I am the special guest on the Ward Scott Files on 980AM each Tuesday from 8a-9a in the segment we call “Political Nerd Tuesday”.  I enjoy being on the show providing analysis and discussing political strategy and polling. The Donald During this Tuesday’s show, I provided my astute analysis that Donald Trump is a bozo […]

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Time for Change Model (Implications for local politics)

This week Politico featured an article The End of the 2016 Election Is Closer Than You Think    The Politico article is a fantastic read, but doesn’t go into the particulars that I would like to explore. Yes, the Politico article in someways scooped a theme I have been working on for sometime on this blog.  In the past I have been exploring the formation of political environments and asking “Do Campaigns Really Matter?” Topic 1: […]

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Ward Scott Files – Show notes

Alex Patton is a weekly guest on the Ward Scott Files for “Political Nerd Tuesday” : a weekly exploration of all things related to political strategy,political polling, and political research. Below are the show notes prepared for the show.  The show notes are prepared ahead of the show and do not reflect extemporaneous discussions, but do contain links and additional information to topics discussed. You can listen to a podcast of the show at the Podcast Page […]

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Ward Scott Files – Show Notes 6/23/2015

Alex Patton is a weekly guest on the Ward Scott Files for “Political Nerd Tuesday” : a weekly exploration of all things related to political strategy, political polling, and political research. Below are the show notes prepared for the show.  The show notes are prepared ahead of the show and do not reflect extemporaneous discussions, but do contain links and additional information to topics discussed. You can listen to a podcast of the show at the Podcast […]

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The Effort Required to Have an Opinion

I’ve been thinking about the amount of effort required to have an opinion. What drove this strain of thought: I was having a conversation with a subject matter expert and I voiced my opinion. He replied, “That is certainly an opinion, but to have an accurate opinion, you need to do a lot more work.” How true. The amount of effort to have an opinion is zero.  My 11 year old son will have an opinion about anything […]

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Facebook, I partly blame you!

I recently posted to facebook the following: Facebook is curating so much now that I am having a difficult time finding value with their product. 1) I have enjoyed FB for reconnecting me with a lot of people I went to High School with in Germany or other military duty stations. Some of these are lower intensity “friendships” in that we communicate infrequently, but I still enjoy knowing what is going in their lives and […]

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What causes bumps in polls and polling?

An astute listener to the radio show, the Ward Scott Files, that deals with political strategy and polling asks, “What causes bumps in polling?” Bumps in Polling Often after a candidate announces they are running for President, or after a major party’s political convention or some other major event, we will observe a bump in polling numbers.  In most cases, if we wait several weeks, the bump will disappear. What are we actually observing with these “bumps” in […]

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Ward Scott Files – Show Notes – 5/26/2015

BUMPS IN POLLS Go back to address Jennifer’s question on what causes bumps in polls. A paper out of Columbia and Stanford that I came across. The people choosing to opt into a poll increases with enthusiasm from those supporting a candidate. “It seems implausible that many voters will switch support from one party to the other because of minor campaign events.1 “ “Or, alternatively, the surveys taken before and after the debate were capturing […]

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