Alex Patton | Republican Political Consultant

Alex Patton is a GOP political consultant and political pollster living in Florida.

Alex Patton is the owner of the Ozean Media and an owner of a political polling firm, Meer Research.

TV DMAs by County

I was looking for a data-set this morning for a GIS project, and I thought the data would be relatively easy to find.  It wasn’t. I did find what I wanted in one case, but someone was charging $199 for the data. So, I spent a couple of hours researching, compiling and cleaning data. I offer it to you for free and in the name of political analysis.  Enjoy! Data Set: TV DMAs by Counties […]

Read more »

Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?

As always, some of the best questions come from readers of the blog.  “Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?” came to us via email. It is also timely with the recent discussion from Kristol and polling information from Data Targeting. Polling Third Parties In a traditional poll, pollsters may ask a question like, “Would you consider supporting a third party candidate? Yes or No?”  Traditionally, because the question is asked like this, support […]

Read more »

Gainesville Votes! and its ramifications

Gainesville Votes! is an organization that is proposing “following the model successfully used by the Alachua County School Board: Non-partisan elections occurring in August (alongside county, state and federal primaries) of every even year. When a run-off is necessary, it would be held on the first Tuesday in November along with county, state and federal elections.”  Harvey Ward. This is being proposed in the vein of promoting higher turnout in Gainesville City Elections. This goal and […]

Read more »

How to read a Political Poll!

The sheer number of polls this political cycle is amazing.  The sheer number of bad polls this political cycle is stunning. Regardless, the manner the press reports on polling is just God-awful. Biggest Polling Complaint My largest complaint is that the amount of uncertainty in a poll is not reported, is under-reported or misunderstood. A poll is only a sample (hopefully of a random one that is well constructed) of a population.  When any pollster moves […]

Read more »

Quick Reaction: The Hidden Lesson from the GOP Debate for Candidates

The morning after the GOP Debate, the Washington Post has an article “Marco Rubio had a rough night on Google“. It is an interesting story, but I think it misses the MOST important story from any candidates’ point of view. If you look at the Google search peaks, BOTH peaks were when candidates related a personal story to the current political context. THAT’s the ‘story’, if you are candidate.  THAT’s the takeaway if you are […]

Read more »

How productive is Congress?

Over the Thanksgiving break, I figured NOTHING could be any more frustrating than watching my Gators, so I decided to begin to tackle learning R. Part of teaching myself R is playing around with an interesting data set – Congressional Bills.  “This public resource provides information about more than 400,000 bills introduced in the U.S. Congress, currently 1947-2008, along with extensive information about each bill’s progress and sponsor.” I just started with a simple question, […]

Read more »

GOP Presidential Nomination Process

The GOP nomination process is one governed by the RNC and individual states…..and people in funny hats. Through this primary process, candidates are awarded delegates by a complex, state-by-state maze. There are 2,470 delegates in total, meaning the first candidate to win 1,236 delegates will win the GOP nomination.  Easy, right? Just wait, it’s a lot more complicated. State GOP Delegates The RNC awards states delegates according to the following rules: For jurisdictions (states) with […]

Read more »

The Donald is a Buffoon and Net Worth

Stop me if you have heard this before, a funny thing happened this week on talk radio. As you may know, I am the special guest on the Ward Scott Files on 980AM each Tuesday from 8a-9a in the segment we call “Political Nerd Tuesday”.  I enjoy being on the show providing analysis and discussing political strategy and polling. The Donald During this Tuesday’s show, I provided my astute analysis that Donald Trump is a bozo […]

Read more »

Time for Change Model (Implications for local politics)

This week Politico featured an article The End of the 2016 Election Is Closer Than You Think    The Politico article is a fantastic read, but doesn’t go into the particulars that I would like to explore. Yes, the Politico article in someways scooped a theme I have been working on for sometime on this blog.  In the past I have been exploring the formation of political environments and asking “Do Campaigns Really Matter?” Topic 1: […]

Read more »