how did donald Trump become President Trump? DATA explaining Trump's win Most got it wrong; I did. The data is now starting to arrive and serious people are now beginning to explore the data in an attempt to understand how President Trump came to win. We will attempt to avoid the pieces that attempt to drive a narrative and stick to data points. The Definitive Guide to 2016 (so far): RealClearPolitics: How Trump […]
Thinking about 2018 with a potential matchup of Rick Scott v Senator Bill Nelson, I was messing around with scripts to combine data sets and came up with vote totals for the 2014 campaign for Florida Governor featuring Rick Scott v Charlie Crist by Florida DMA (Television Markets). Here you go…..I may write later on what this possibly means for 2018, but for now, it is provided as is for your enjoyment.
Got a quick question on the Ward Scott Files today, “What effect will Trump’s threats against the Freedom Caucus have?” Short answer: Not much. Took a quick look (excuse the non-sexy graph) at how members of the freedom caucus performed against Trump, Romney and McCain in their districts. On average, the 30 members identified as members out-performed Trump by 5.4%. If we throw out the outliers, it is more. (I don’t have the time nor […]
I went to bed last night thinking about about DecisionDeskHQ’s attempt to make a nationwide precinct map. It is a challenging and cool project. Thinking about this as I slumbered, I awoke wondering just ‘how divided are we in Florida at the precinct level’? Thanks to the great state of Florida, we have precinct level results, and over morning coffee, I found my answer. The answer: Pretty damn divided. If you consider a precinct […]
I was looking for a data-set this morning for a GIS project, and I thought the data would be relatively easy to find. It wasn’t. I did find what I wanted in one case, but someone was charging $199 for the data. So, I spent a couple of hours researching, compiling and cleaning data. I offer it to you for free and in the name of political analysis. Enjoy! Data Set: TV DMAs by Counties […]
Just now rising from the haze and starting in on the data. Enjoy. More to follow.
As always, some of the best questions come from readers of the blog. “Why don’t third parties win US presidential elections?” came to us via email. It is also timely with the recent discussion from Kristol and polling information from Data Targeting. Polling Third Parties In a traditional poll, pollsters may ask a question like, “Would you consider supporting a third party candidate? Yes or No?” Traditionally, because the question is asked like this, support […]
Gainesville Votes! is an organization that is proposing “following the model successfully used by the Alachua County School Board: Non-partisan elections occurring in August (alongside county, state and federal primaries) of every even year. When a run-off is necessary, it would be held on the first Tuesday in November along with county, state and federal elections.” Harvey Ward. This is being proposed in the vein of promoting higher turnout in Gainesville City Elections. This goal and […]
The sheer number of polls this political cycle is amazing. The sheer number of bad polls this political cycle is stunning. Regardless, the manner the press reports on polling is just God-awful. Biggest Polling Complaint My largest complaint is that the amount of uncertainty in a poll is not reported, is under-reported or misunderstood. A poll is only a sample (hopefully of a random one that is well constructed) of a population. When any pollster moves […]
The morning after the GOP Debate, the Washington Post has an article “Marco Rubio had a rough night on Google“. It is an interesting story, but I think it misses the MOST important story from any candidates’ point of view. If you look at the Google search peaks, BOTH peaks were when candidates related a personal story to the current political context. THAT’s the ‘story’, if you are candidate. THAT’s the takeaway if you are […]